But the Islamic Emirate’s spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, denied the interim government’s interference in international assistance’ delivery.
The spokesman for the US department of State, Mathew Miller, told a press conference in a response to a question about SIGAR John Sopko’s testimony to the US Congress regarding the “Taliban’s” getting US aid, said that the US government has robust oversight measures in place to monitor the implementation of US-funded humanitarian assistance around the world, which “we provide to help save the most vulnerable of lives.”
He made the remarks days after the Special Inspector General (SIGAR), John Sopko, said that the “Taliban demands payoffs to permit the implementation of aid projects” and that they also are pressuring the UN and NGOs to hire their “Taliban members, their relatives, and allies to help provide US assistance.”
But Miller said that the US works with “trusted international” partners who have extensive experience working in challenging environments like Afghanistan, where there is no US presence.
“In cases where the Taliban makes demands of our partners beyond routine operational costs, our partners pause or adjust their operations accordingly,” he said.
But the Islamic Emirate’s spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, denied the interim government’s interference in international assistance’ delivery.
“We just investigate the complaints. There has been no interference in NGOs. We have heard about this report, and we deny it. It is not true,” he said.
Economist Sayed Masoud said that such remarks of the US officials indicate political messages for the interim Afghan government.
“In fact, this is a distraction from the US direction towards the regime in Afghanistan,” he said.
To a large degree, Sopko said, “our research confirms that those who control the guns control the aid.”
‘Robust Measures’ Keep US Aid From Benefiting Islamic Emirate: Miller
ISLAMABAD, Nov 17 (Reuters) – The Taliban’s acting commerce minister said he had asked Pakistan to help return the assets of expelled Afghans and discussed ways to overcome Afghanistan’s stalled banking sector transactions during a four-day visit to Islamabad this week.
Acting minister Nooruddin Azizi’s arrival in the Pakistani capital marked the first public visit by a senior Taliban official since Pakistan announced its policy to deport thousands of undocumented Afghans and other foreign citizens after Nov. 1.
It comes just a week after Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister said its expulsion plan was a response to the unwillingness of the Taliban-led administration to act against militants using Afghanistan to carry out attacks in Pakistan.
The Taliban have said the security issues are a domestic matter for Islamabad and called on Pakistan to stop deportations.
Azizi said in an interview with Reuters on Thursday night that the negotiations had mainly focused on trade issues and had been “friendly”. He said Pakistan officials had raised counter-terrorism issues and he had reiterated the Taliban’s policy that Afghan soil would not be used against other nations.
Azizi said a major focus of the visit had been raising the problem of Afghan deportees being unable to return their assets from Pakistan. He said that the Afghan embassy’s charge d’affaires in Islamabad and Pakistan’s foreign office would work on a “detailed roadmap” on how the assets could be returned but said it would take time.
“This is not a matter of 10 people or 100 people, this is a matter of 1.7 million people,” Azizi said.
Afghan citizens returning to Afghanistan have said there are restrictions on the transfer of cash and property from Pakistan, where many had built businesses and homes for decades. Over 350,000 Afghans have returned, many in temporary shelters near the border.
“Winter is coming, and .. the migrants are having many problems, their medicine and health issues, their food … we have many problems ahead and this is a very big challenge for the Islamic Emirate,” Azizi said, referring to the Taliban’s name for its government.
BANKING TALKS
Azizi took part in a meeting on Wednesday between Pakistan and Uzbekistan, who agreed to boost trade, including “enhancing and expanding the banking system.”
Afghanistan’s banking sector has been severely hampered since the Taliban took over in 2021 as foreign banks limited transactions due to concerns over breaching anti-money laundering regulations and international sanctions against some Taliban leaders.
Azizi said that officials from Pakistan and Afghanistan’s commerce ministries had agreed to work on draft proposals within a month on how they could reinstate banking transactions for traders.
He hoped that Pakistani banks that already have branches in Afghanistan could re-start transactions between the two countries.
He added that he would prefer Afghan banks use its previous banking channels like SWIFT, but they were considering using China’s currency to settle international payments between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
“We have to find another solution, we are in need…(China) is a huge economic power of the world at the moment, their currency has good stability … we are thinking about it, we haven’t taken decision about it,” he said.
Pakistan’s commerce minister and a spokesman for the commerce ministry did not respond to request for comment.
Reporting by Charlotte Greenfield in Islamabad; Additional reporting by Asif Shahzad in Islamabad and Mohammad Yunus Yawar in Kabul, Editing by William Maclean
Taliban minister raises return of deported Afghans’ assets in Pakistan visit
Amnesty International in a statement said that this action of Pakistan started while Afghanistan is in a humanitarian crisis.
Amnesty International once again demanded a stop to the deportations and detentions of Afghan refugees by Pakistan.
Amnesty International in a statement said that this action of Pakistan started while Afghanistan is in a humanitarian crisis.
According to the statement, Amnesty International said that Pakistan must respect the rights of Afghan refugees.
In response to the deportation of Afghan refugees, Amnesty International asks Pakistan to stop the process of deporting and detaining Afghan refugees.
“For decades, tens of thousands of Afghan refugees have made Pakistan their home. However, this recent decision will force Afghans back to danger in Afghanistan. Notably, the deportation pose a significant threat to the human rights of Afghan women and girls, including their rights to education, work, and freedom of movement. For most Afghan women and girls, their only chance of gaining formal education is through staying in Pakistan,” Amnesty International statement said.
“The statement of the United Nations office also mentions that the Pakistani police, by misbehaving, extorting refugees, and harassing elderly people, homeless women and children, can have a very negative effect on the mood and mental state of Afghan refugees,” said Alireza Karimi, a Refugee’s Rights activist.
Political analysts do not think that this action of Pakistan is appropriate in the current situation.
“Since the establishment of Pakistan in 1947, it has been fomenting the same issues and trying to torture the people of Afghanistan, and as you can see, it has looked at four thousand containers of traders there. Because the depth of Pakistan’s strategy is to destroy Afghanistan,” said Mohammad Matin Mohammadkhil.
Meanwhile, a few days ago, the consulate of the Islamic Emirate in Karachi, Pakistan, said that since the month of October, nearly 400,000 Afghan refugees have returned to the country from Torkham and Spin Boldak crossings, and this process is still ongoing.
Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan further stated that the level of corruption and drug cultivation have decreased in Afghanistan.
Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, said that Pakistan will not unilaterally take steps to recognize the current Afghan government.
Speaking at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Durrani said that they will act simultaneously with other countries to recognize the government of Afghanistan.
“We will recognize the Taliban regime simultaneously. We will not recognize the Taliban regime unilaterally,” Durrani added.
Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan further stated that the level of corruption and drug cultivation have decreased in Afghanistan.
“The positive thing in Afghanistan is that there is less corruption, which is internationally recognized. They have raised their revenues which is internationally recognized. The security in the country … is internationally recognized. And then, drug or opium cultivation are at its all-time low,” Asif Durrani noted.
According to Durrani, the ban on women in Afghanistan by the Islamic Emirate is a cultural issue.
“The four-year policy has been made which contains everything. God willing, in the near future, security will reach 100% and drug cultivation will be reduced to zero,” Abdul Mateen Qani, spokesman of interior ministry told TOLOnews.
Meanwhile, some political analysts shared different views regarding the relations between Kabul with its neighbors and the region.
“The recent remarks of Pakistan’s representative for Afghanistan, represent Pakistan’s retreat in the policies it uses towards Afghanistan,” said Abdul Rauf Tawana, another political analyst.
Pakistan’s Envoy: ‘We Will Recognize Taliban Regime Simultaneously’
Many Afghans fled to Pakistan after the Soviet invasion in the late 1970s – only to be forcefully returned to a homeland in crisis.
Torkham, Afghanistan – Gul Khan Kaka was in his early 20s when he had to abandon his home and flee to neighbouring Pakistan after the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979, a war that lasted a decade.
Four decades later, Kaka, now 62, is a refugee again – this time as an undocumented Afghan driven out of Pakistan as part of a government crackdown on “illegal” foreigners.
“We left our homes, embarking on a journey on horses and donkeys towards Pakistan, desperate to save our lives,” he told Al Jazeera at a camp established by the Taliban authorities near Torkham, the main border crossing between the South Asian nations.
“Forty years ago, we lived in tents and now we find ourselves in tents again. That’s the entire of my life story.”
Tens of thousands of nearly 1.7 million undocumented Afghans in Pakistan – some for decades, with homes and livelihoods – have been crossing into Pakistan since November 1, the deadline announced by the Pakistani government for the refugees to leave.
Once on the other side, they turn into refugees within their own homeland, impoverished by decades of wars and conflict and now facing a severe food and jobs crisis – a country where 15 of its 40 million people do not know where their next meal will come from.
The Taliban administration has set up two main camps, in Torkham and Spin Boldak, along the Pakistan border to facilitate the daily transfer of the refugees to their respective hometowns and villages across Afghanistan.
The United Nations estimates that more than 330,000 Afghans have left Pakistan since November 1. This week, Pakistan opened three more border crossings in southwestern Balochistan province to expedite its expulsion campaign.
Police harassment, extortion alleged
At the camp at Torkham, Kaka along with thousands of others wait for their turn to be transferred to their respective areas. Some families had been waiting for nearly two weeks. Officials say they are in the process of documenting all the refugees and arranging vehicles to transport them onwards.
As they wait, they share accounts of the alleged harassment and persecution by the Pakistani police during the expulsion.
Kaka, who lived in Lahore for many years, said he faced significant challenges after the ultimatum for all “illegal” migrants was announced.
“I had just undergone two surgeries and still felt unwell, so I had gone to see a doctor when the police arrested me,” he said.
“After the arrest, they confiscated everything I had on me and later decided to deport me. My family had no knowledge of my whereabouts. Upon arrival here in the camp, I called them and they informed me they were also on their way.”
Liaqat Ullah, another refugee, told Al Jazeera the police confiscated thousands of rupees and gold during a raid on his home in Faisalabad in Pakistan’s Punjab province.
“The police demanded some documents while searching for money and other valuables. They took away 9 grams of gold and 375,000 rupees [$1,300], claiming it was Pakistan’s wealth now and not Afghanistan’s,” he alleged.
“The female members of my family and children were in shock until we crossed Torkham.”
Several refugees shared similar stories of police “harassment, bullying and torture”. Habibullah said the police in Faisalabad subjected him to torture and mistreatment.
“The police treated us as if we were not human. They raided our houses, abused both the male and female family members, and expelled us in very adverse conditions,” he told Al Jazeera.
Shahzadgy, a widow in her late 60s who was living with her daughter and son-in-law in Peshawar, said the officials gave her little time to pack and leave.
“They told us to go, instructed the owner of our house to evict Afghans and not give home on rent to them,” she said. “We spent a great time there with the people but the way the government expelled us, we will never forget, never ever.”
Al Jazeera reached out to senior government and police officials in Peshawar city and Punjab province, but they refused to comment on the allegations.
‘Hungry but happy’
Habibullah said many refugees were compelled to sell their possessions at half-price since they were not allowed to take them back to their country.
“We had cows and other animals and belongings, but sold everything at a reduced value,” he said. “They [Pakistani authorities] only allowed us to carry 50,000 rupees [$170] when we were crossing the border and confiscated the excess amount from every family.”
But, Habibullah, now residing in the camp with a dozen family members, said despite being aware of the financial crisis in his homeland, he was happy to be back.
“We know the economic situation in our country is dire and we anticipate facing hunger, but we are and will be happy here,” he told Al Jazeera.
Izzat Khan remembers his days in Pakistan as a refugee, describing them as “marvellous and incredible”.
“We left behind our Pakistani brothers and sisters and we will never forget them in our prayers,” he said with a smile, which soon turned to rage. “But I will not say anything about their [Pakistan] government as they hosted us for years but kicked us out like a football.”
The Taliban authorities have established a religious school at Torkham to teach the children every day for a few hours. The government has also announced some job vacancies for the refugees in the Vice and Virtue Ministry, “but only for those with a degree in religious education,” as posted by Zabihullah Mujahid, Taliban’s chief spokesperson, on his X account.
Due to poverty, many Afghan children had worked as labourers for years in Pakistan and never had the opportunity to attend school.
Asadullah, 15, was more fortunate. He was born and raised in Peshawar, where he was studying in a school when the crackdown on refugees began.
“I was getting an education in Urdu and English languages there. Now I don’t know what I will study here,” he told Al Jazeera. “I really miss my school and my classmates. I was studying wholeheartedly but they expelled us.”
Syed Omer, another student from Peshawar, said he had to “abruptly abandon school and everything else” and flee to Afghanistan.
“I urge the Taliban government to build schools for us and I would like to continue my education,” he said.
As the children who had never set foot in Afghanistan speak, their parents stand nearby, pondering over the challenges ahead for them as they rebuild their lives in their homeland.
“I have three children and all of them were born and raised in Pakistan. When I told them we had to go to our country Afghanistan, they were all surprised and asked: ‘Our country is Pakistan, not Afghanistan,” said one of the fathers at Torkham.
SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
‘In tents again’: Life comes full circle for Afghans expelled from Pakistan
Two new reports, one from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and another by David Mansfield and Alcis, show that Afghan farmers have largely complied with the Islamic Emirate’s ban on opium cultivation. They chart a swingeing cut in cultivation in 2023 – just 10,000 to 30,000 hectares of land sown with opium poppy compared to more than two hundred thousand hectares the previous year. AAN’s Kate Clark and Jelena Bjelica have been assessing the consequences of the Emirate’s crackdown on the cultivation of such a highly significant cash crop for people, government and the national economy and also ask whether the ban is now being extended to the trade of opiates out of Afghanistan.A poppy farmer and a labourer by the farmer’s crop in Nad Ali district, Helmand Province in spring of 2015. Photo by Andrew Quilty, 2015.
In April 2022,the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) announced a ban on the cultivation and production of opium and the use, trade and transport of all illegal narcotics (see AAN reporting from April 2022 about the ban). Since the ban was announced at the beginning of harvest season, the IEA allowed farmers to harvest the opium crop that was already in the ground. However, they began to enforce the ban strictly in the autumn, when farmers normally sow the seeds for the next season (see AAN reporting about the Emirate’s counter-narcotics strategy from June 2023). But just how severely the Emirate did enforce the ban is now evident in the two newly released reports.Alcis and Mansfield found that, country-wide, the area under opium cultivation dropped by 86 per cent, from 219,744 hectares in 2022 to 31,088 hectares in 2023.[1]The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimated the reduction to be even higher, 95 per cent, from 233,000 hectares in 2022 to 10,800 hectares in 2023. Although the figures differ, the direction of travel does not.[2] UNODC also calculated that the reduction in potential opium production was 95 per cent, with about 33 tons of fresh opium produced nationwide in 2023, compared to 6,200 tons in 2022.
Both reports agree on the potential momentous consequences for livelihoods and the national economy: the ban has deprived millions of people who would have grown poppy in 2023 of an income at a time when the rest of the economy is contracting (by 20.7 per cent in 2021 and 6.2 per cent in 2022, as reported by the World Bank, with AAN analysis here). Poppy income has always been so large that there are national implications of the ban: opiates have generally brought in the equivalent of around 10 to 15 per cent of Afghanistan’s licit Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the value of all the goods and services produced in the country in any one year. Not all of that was lost in 2023 as trade in opiates continued, but a continuation of the ban on cultivation into a second year and a clampdown on trade would cut into Afghanistan’s national income.
The ban and the now apparent sharp reduction in the cultivation of poppy raise any number of questions – which this report will try to address: What has been the impact on the household economies of farmers and others who get/used to get an income from opium poppy? Will the IEA extend the ban on cultivation into a second year, and will it extend it to traders? What are the political and economic consequences of this policy?
The significance of opium
Opium has been a critical part of the Afghan economy for many years. In the years between 2006 and 2022, Afghanistan produced between 3,300 and 7,400 metric tons of raw opium annually, according to UNODC’s annual estimates.[3] The relative importance of the crop varied in any given year according to the area under cultivation, yield and price and the size of other sectors of the economy, but an indication of opium’s importance can be seen by comparing it to Afghanistan’s licit GDP. In 2015, UNODC valued the opiate economy, including domestic consumption and exports,as equivalent to about 16 per cent of licit GDP (valued at USD 19.2 billion by the World Bank). In 2021, UNODC valued it as equivalent to 9-14 per cent of licit GDP (valued at USD 14.94 billion by the World Bank). As for 2022, although UNODC did not give a figure, it calculated that the opiate economy likely represented an even greater share of the total economy, not surprising, given how severely licit GDP has contracted since the Taleban takeover. UNODC did say the value of opiates was equivalent to 29 per cent of the entire agricultural sector in 2022. However, in its latest report, UNODC estimated that the value of opiate exports dwindled to USD 190-260 million in 2023, a drop of 90 per cent from USD 1.4-2.7 billion in 2022.
The importance of this sector for income and jobs is also vast. One indicator is Mansfield and Alcis’ estimate that the ban on cultivating poppy has hit 6.9 million people. From a report they published in June 2023, they give other indicators: in the south, the landless typically earn up to a third of their annual income weeding and harvesting poppy. In Helmand alone, in 2022, they say the poppy crop provided almost 21 million days of work and USD 61 million in wages.
Yet, the ban has hit different people differently. Indeed, while many Afghans will have been thrown into economic distress as their income from poppy dried up, others have seen a windfall.
The variable impact of the ban on farmers and labourers
Anyone who had stocks of opium paste (which stores well and is used as a means of saving and borrowing in Afghanistan) – likely richer farmers and traders – will have benefited from the ban. This is because it triggered a hike in prices and initially, at least, trading was not affected.
Opium prices had been increasing since the re-establishment of the IEA in August 2021, but in August 2023, said UNDOC, they reached “a twenty-year peak,” surpassing even the price hike following the first IEA ban in 2000/2001. Opium prices had then peaked at USD 383 a kilogramme in 2003. This time round, twenty years later, in August 2023, they were as high as USD 408 a kilogramme. That meant that anyone possessing an inventory of opium paste who decided to sell it has seen bumper profits.
Poorer farmers, on the other hand, who borrow opium seeds ahead of the harvest, sharecroppers who are paid a portion of the harvest, or labourers who get seasonal work weeding and harvesting poppy fields will all have seen their income dry up or severely curtailed because of the ban. See the chart below from Mansfield and Alcis showing the differing impact of the ban on different farmers and workers.
Graph from David Mansfield and Alcis, ‘Uncharted Territory: Does the Taliban’s new edict signal a crackdown on the drugs trade is looming?’, 2 November 2023.
In their June 2023 report, Mansfield and Alcis elaborated on different farmers’ strategies in the face of the 2022 ban:
The natural response to the prospect of a pending ban was for farmers to hoard what opium they could. Were a ban imposed, prices would inevitably rise providing a potential windfall for those that had the financial means to retain the crop that they had grown that year. In some cases, farmers would have sold other assets just so that they could retain all or part of their final yield: some livestock, or a motorbike – assets that would diminish in value – in order that they could keep their opium and gain from a future rise in prices.
Not all farmers had opium stocks or assets to sell to buy opium. Richer farmers employing others in 2022, could typically buy back the opium they have given in wages to itinerant workers or sharecroppers at harvest time, when prices are at their lowest, and would then have been able to keep the whole crop to sell as prices rose in anticipation of the ban on cultivation being enforced.
Mansfield and Alcis said those best placed to profit were farmers with large landholdings [three to four hectares of land] in the south and southwest who “not only have sufficient land for food and other crops to meet their family’s needs but also plenty of land for poppy.” Much of this is new land in what was formerly desert brought under cultivation by using solar-powered pumps to bring up groundwater. By contrast, they say, landholdings are far smaller in the east and northeast: those with more than a hectare of irrigated land are considered land-rich and poppy is concentrated in areas where landholdings are much smaller. In that June report, Mansfield and Alcis pointed to “growing evidence” of heightened economic distress among households in Nangrahar province who have been compelled to abandon poppy, for example, selling productive assets such as farm equipment and land and jewellery to meet basic expenses and sending male family members abroad.
Income lost to the poor, they also point out, translates into savings in outgoings for the largest landowners who have not had to pay sharecroppers and travelling harvesters this year, but have still had opium stocks themselves to sell.
Farmers’ income from selling the 2023 opium harvest, in total, declined by more than 92 per cent from an estimated USD 1,360 million for the 2022 harvest to USD 110 million in 2023. However, those earnings will have been concentrated in the hands of farmers with stocks or farmers who did manage to cultivate poppy. Both reports found that the ban was not enforced/complied with evenly across the country. Mansfield and Alcis found that opium poppy cultivation is now limited to only 15 provinces, with just under half of Afghanistan’s total opium poppy cultivation concentrated in the northeastern province of Badakhshan.” It gave the following breakdown.
Helmand by far the largest cultivator of opium,[4] saw, they said, a 99 per cent reduction in cultivation, Farah (5th largest) 95 per cent and Uruzgan (3rd largest) 88 per cent, but neighbouring Kandahar (2nd largest) only 65 per cent. The area of land under poppy in Nangrahar (6th largest) was 88 per cent reduced, but in Daikundi (7th largest) only 41 per cent. In Badakhshan (4th largest), farmers planted more opium: the area under opium cultivation there increased by 11.5 per cent in 2023 compared to 2022. Such variations, if allowed to continue, would seem inevitably to increase tension between those who are able and those unable to grow opium. Compounding any tension is the inadequacy of other annual crops to provide an equivalent source of income and demand for labour.
Ranking in 2022
Province
% of change in area under cultivation
1st
Helmand
-99
2nd
Kandahar
-65
3rd
Uruzgan
-88
4th
Badakhshan
+11.5
5th
Farah
-95
6th
Nangrahar
-88
7th
Daikundi
-41
Change in area under poppy cultivation in the main poppy-growing province as percentage of 2022 provincial total. Data from David Mansfield and Alcis, ‘Uncharted Territory: Does the Taliban’s new edict signal a crackdown on the drugs trade is looming?’, 2 November 2023. Table by AAN.
The switch to wheat
According to UNODC, 68 per cent of fields that had previously been planted with poppy were planted with wheat in 2023. In Farah, Helmand, Kandahar and Nangrahar provinces, all major opium poppy cultivators — together, they made up 74 per cent of the country’s total opium cultivation in 2022 – UNODC recorded an overall increase of 160,000 hectares in cereal cultivation in 2023 compared to the previous year. However, that will have earned farmers a relative pittance – USD 770 per hectare for wheat, compared to USD 10,000 for poppy. The ban and the switch to wheat would have cost farmers in these four provinces, said UNODC, around one billion dollars in potential income.
UNODC said that:
Some farmers reported that the sudden implementation of the ban prevented them from transitioning to high-value pomegranate, almond, pistachio and hing (asafoetida), which can take years to fully mature. The availability of wheat seeds has been reported as a reason to choose wheat over other annual crops such as okra or peas.
Veteran agriculturist, Anthony Fitzherbert, was not convinced by this argument. He said:
Pomegranate, almond, pistachio, grape-vines etc … are all long term investment orchard crops and anyway do not usually occupy the same land as opium poppy, or have the same water and irrigation requirements.
As for asafoetida, the deep-rooted plant from the carrot (umbelliferous) family, which produces a pungent spice widely used especially in Pakistani and Indian cooking, a wild plant now increasingly cultivated, it also needs years to produce an income, says Fitzherbert: “The plant takes several years to mature before it is ready to be harvested. This is done by a process of tapping the roots to extract the gum. A process which usually kills the plant.” He points out that, like the orchard crops, asafoetida does not occupy the same ground as opium poppy. “Usually [it is] grown on rain-fed and otherwise waste land, so is not a direct competitor crop to opium poppy anyway.”
Wheat is the most important cereal crop in Afghanistan. The country produces on average 4.6 million tons of wheat annually (see US Department of Agriculture website). However, it is not self-sustainable in wheat and every year imports wheat and wheat flour.[5] For most Afghan farmers, says Fitzherbert, wheat is grown as a subsistence staple, not a cash crop and in poppy-growing areas is traditionally grown in rotation with poppy, which is sown every other year or every third year. Significantly for those looking for an alternative to poppy is the fact that, unlike most other crops, wheat is also sown and harvested at the same time as poppy – both crops are sown around October/November in Afghanistan. It seems most likely the availability of wheat seeds and the concurrence of the sowing and harvesting cycles of wheat and poppy were the main factors behind the nationwide switch from poppy to wheat.
In locations where double cropping is possible (such as Helmand and Kandahar), says Fitzherbert, opium poppy has the advantage of having a shorter growing period before being harvested and therefore, requires fewer irrigations and less water. The opium crop is harvested earlier than wheat or any other possible alternatives, so that a second summer crop of maize, beans, mung, sunflowers or okra can be sown earlier.
Opium has been an important cash crop for Afghans for many decades and the ban on cultivation has already hit many farmers hard. However, both UNODC and Mansfield and Alcis noted something else already referred to in this report, that trade in opiates continued after the ban.
Trading
UNODC noted that traders have had “to rely on their potential opium inventories to make up for the income they lost during the 2023 harvest” and that “[d]ata on seizures in and around Afghanistan indicate that following the ban, opium inventories from past record harvests are being sold off…” In their June 2023 report, Mansfield and Alcis said:
There are few restrictions on trade. Opium grown prior to the imposition of Haibatullah’s ban continues to be sold and seizures by Afghanistan’s neighbours and further afield, suggest a continued supply of both opiates and methamphetamine. In March 2023, the Taliban even removed the formal tax they imposed on the export of opiates since coming to power, easing the transactions costs for the cross border trade.[6]
One eyewitness visiting Helmand province at the end of September also said it was “business as usual” there. “After the issuance of the [April 2022] decree of Mullah Akhundzada,” he said, “there has been no change in the buying and selling of opium in any of the districts of Helmand province.” In their most recent, 2 November 2023 paper, however, they reported “growing evidence that the Taliban are ratcheting up the pressure on those involved in the opium trade.” They spoke of a decision in July 2023 to shut down catapults that had proliferated on the Afghan border with Iran following the Taleban takeover which had been used to get drugs across the border. They also noted:
Smuggling costs have also increased along the primary routes following the announcement of the new law. Of particular note is the recent closure of the route from Nangarhar to Peshawar via Durbaba and Tirah, and the claim that drugs are now being rerouted south. We have not seen these kinds of pressures before under Taliban rule. As yet, the only route that has not experienced a rise in smuggling costs is the journey via Bahramchar [sic] in Helmand province, possibly reflecting continued privileges afforded to those in Helmand. This is clearly a dynamic environment – and like the ban on cultivation – reflects the uneven nature of Taliban rule in which some groups are favoured over others.
However, Mansfield and Alcis cite a new law issued by the IEA on 1 October 2023 which may signal its intention to carry the ban on cultivation into a second year and, possibly, start hitting trade.
Tightening the knot
The new drugs law that Mansfield and Alcis say has been in the making since August 2023 prescribes penalties and punishments for the cultivation, trafficking, trade, collection, etc of drugs and other psychoactive substances, such as alcohol (see the text of the Pashto original and an English translation by Alcis).[7] It is an elaboration of the succinct, two-paragraph-long, April 2022 ban.[8] A maximum prison sentence prescribed is up to seven years for trafficking and trading different types of narcotics in the amounts defined by the law. It is noticeable that the new law was promulgated at a time when farmers were weighing up what to sow. Opium and cannabis farmers are also punishable by the new law (six months in prison for cultivating less than half a jerib of land, nine months for half a jerib and one year = for more than one jerib).
Mansfield and Alcis suggested that there is “evidence that the new drugs law is already having an effect, with many provincial authorities receiving a copy of the ordinance and a number disseminating news of the prescribed penalties through meetings with elders and in mosques.” It is not yet clear then how far the ban on cultivation will be enforced in its second year, or in the words of Mansfield and Alcis whether the authorities will “engage in a robust effort against the trade” and in particular, whether “they move against inventory and processing.”
The new law has pushed prices up even further, although with geographic variations, according to Mansfield and Alcis, by 40 per cent in the east, 20 per cent in the northeast, but only 10 per cent in the southwest, “possibly reflecting the high levels of inventory in provinces like Helmand and Kandahar.” As prices rise, the potential benefits of disobeying the ban mushroom. Yet, the new law also highlights the increased risk of growing poppy.
Already, the landless and land-poor have lost income. A second year of the ban on cultivation will be hard for many to bear. Any farmer who has sold his inventory will also start to see the ban biting into their household economies. If the authorities block trade, the damage to households would spread even to wealthier farmers and traders.
Any perceived geographic variation in how the IEA treats opium farmers and traders could be potentially destabilising. If, for example, the authorities allow Badakhshi farmers to benefit from high prices but continue to clamp down on farmers elsewhere or ignore the opium trade in Helmand while blocking other routes, there could be a political price to pay. In general, Afghans have learned to be wary of bans and eradication. In the past, they have often been used to consolidate the market, favouring those with more political influence to grow richer and more powerful as their weaker rivals are taken out.
There are other potential consequences to government income. The Ministry of Agriculture was taking ushr on opium, as on the harvest of other crops, and passing the proceeds to the office of the Supreme Leader who is in charge of its distribution. That is now lost, as is the tax on trade and exports, which also apparently never came to the Ministry of Finance, but was an informal income stream for the authorities. Income from opium poppy has also been valuable, nationally, for covering imports, significant because Afghanistan runs a trade deficit and many imports are essential – medicine, food and fuel. (For a recent in-depth look at the economy, including the balance of trade, see our recent publication, ‘Survival and Stagnation: The State of the Afghan economy’.)
Any tightening of the knot against Afghan opium cultivation and trade could also have regional and global consequences, but probably only eventually, if the ban on cultivation continues. According to UNDOC, it takes a couple of years for opiates produced in Afghanistan to reach their destination. Moreover, there are stockpiles of opiates everywhere, not just in Afghanistan. In other words, supply will outstrip demand for some time. However, if Europe’s supply dropped significantly, there would be pressure on old illicit opium producers like Turkey and North Macedonia to return to poppy cultivation. If Asian markets were left short of supply, another old producer, Myanmar, which is already seeing an increase in cultivation – a consequence of its internal instability – could also see more poppy cultivated. But if this were to happen, it would take years, maybe a decade of the IEA maintaining a strict drugs ban.
For now, the main consequences are in Afghanistan. We are now in the autumn sowing season when farmers in poppy-growing areas have to decide which crop to sow, and the authorities whether they take action against those who disobey the law. If farmers do choose to sow poppy, they risk seeing their crop eradicated and losing everything. If they do not, some may be unable to cover household expenses this year. For the authorities, eradication carries risks if people feel they are being unfairly targeted or that the government is forcing them into penury. And will the IEA really put a good portion of its rural, work-able population in prison? As the IEA’s policy on narcotics moves into its second year, it is clear that the consequences are not just economic, but could have repercussions for politics and social peace.
Edited by Roxanna Shapour
References
References
↑1
Alcis first reported in June 2023 (AAN analysis here) a significant drop in poppy cultivation in Helmand province, from more than 120,000 hectares in 2022 to less than 1,000 hectares in 2023. Helmand is Afghanistan’s leading poppy cultivator.
↑2
UNODC and Alcis both use satellite imagery to measure opium cultivation.
Alcis’ estimates, it says “are the result of analysis of satellite imagery collected across the whole of Afghanistan repeatedly throughout the winter cropping season. As such, it is a method that “reviews every field in Afghanistan multiple times through its growing cycle.” They say this method also estimates the amount of land “dedicated to wheat, orchards, vineyards, and other crops – the agricultural alternatives to poppy – and thereby insights into how enduring a ban will be, and how this varies by area.”
UNODC describes using 900 “very high-resolution satellite images on a field-by-field basis,” obtained as a particular province’s poppy is likely to be coming into bloom, a variation based on climate difference.
↑3
To put this in perspective. More than 15 million people globally, UNODC estimated in 2010, use opiates (opium, heroin and morphine), which means that in opium equivalents, they use approximately 3,700 tons of opium annually. See UNDOC’s World Drug Report from 2010. This is the most recent estimate of the number of opiates users globally, known to us.
↑4
Helmand dwarfs all other provinces in terms of hectares under opium poppy. In 2022, poppy was grown on almost 130,000 hectares of land. The next largest province, Kandahar, grew poppy on just over 164,000 hectares.
↑5
In the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at an above‑average level of 3.4 million tonnes, over 8 per cent less than in the previous year, the FAO reported.
↑6
UNODC reported a different motivation for the reported temporary lifting of the tax on opium exports: “The goal was reportedly to end the opium trade in Afghanistan by liquidating all remaining stocks and discouraging future poppy cultivation.”
↑7
The law was agreed upon in a meeting chaired by Mullah Hibatullah on 28 August 2023 with the head of the Supreme Court, five provincial governors and other members of the Taliban leadership in attendance, according to Alcis.
↑8
The official English translation of the April 2022 ban, taken from the Al-Emarah website, is:
As per the decree of the supreme leader of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), All Afghans are informed that from now on, the cultivation of poppies has been strictly prohibited across the country.
If anyone violates the decree, the crop will be destroyed immediately and the violator will be treated according to the Sharia law. In addition, usage, transportation, trade, export and import of all types of narcotics such as alcohol, heroin, tablet K, hashish and etc., including drug manufacturing factories in Afghanistan are strictly banned. Enforcement of this decree is mandatory. The violator will be prosecuted and punished by the judiciary.
Prosperity or Penury: The political and economic fallout of the opium ban in Afghanistan
An independent assessment commissioned by the United Nations has linked recognition of the Taliban government to compliance with Afghanistan’s international treaty obligations and commitments, requiring it to immediately remove sweeping curbs on women’s rights to education and employment opportunities.
“Any formal re-integration of Afghanistan into global institutions and systems will require the participation and leadership of Afghan women,” said a VOA-obtained draft copy of the report.
In March, a Security Council resolution asked U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to conduct the assessment providing “forward-looking recommendations for an integrated and coherent” international approach to the Taliban-governed crisis-hit country by November 17. He appointed Feridun Sinirlioglu, a former Turkish government official, as the special coordinator to lead the mission.
Sinirlioglu traveled to Afghanistan and engaged with Taliban leaders, Afghan stakeholders residing outside the country, and critical regional and international stakeholders to assess the situation before submitting his report to the U.N. chief.
The document noted that the situation of women and girls — the restrictions on girls’ education in particular — was “the single most common” issue raised in the consultations. It was highlighted by Afghan women, girls, the business community, religious clerics, tribal elders, civil society, health and education professionals, and many representatives of the de facto Taliban authorities, it said.
Taliban ban women from school, work
The Taliban reclaimed power from an American-backed government in August 2021. They have imposed their strict interpretation of Islamic law, banning schools for girls beyond the sixth grade and barring women from most public and private sector workplaces, including the United Nations and other aid groups.
“The DFA (de facto authorities) have tried to justify these restrictions as being part of the Islamic faith and Afghan traditions. However, similar restrictions do not exist in any other member state of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and many Afghans reject the DFA’s characterization of local traditions,” the U.N. report said.
It noted that the restrictive bans are not consistent with the values embodied in the U.N. Charter or international law, nor are they conducive to Afghanistan’s political and economic stability.
TTP intensifies cross-border attacks
The report recommended, citing stakeholder consultations, that an Afghan national dialogue needs to be initiated to establish inclusive governance and ensure sustainable peace and economic development in the country after 45 years of armed conflict. It would permit movement toward the full normalization and integration of Afghanistan within the international system.
The international community should quickly identify a solution to unfreeze Afghanistan’s frozen assets, which are worth billions of dollars, and revisit the various sanctions regimes if the Taliban can demonstrate their ability to maintain the country’s commitments and govern inclusively, the report adds.
While the document hailed the Taliban’s counternarcotics efforts and improved security conditions across the country, it questioned de facto authorities’ counterterrorism resolve and regional security concerns stemming from it.
The assessment said, without naming any country, that several member countries “attest to the persistent presence of terrorist groups and individuals inside Afghanistan, including members of al-Qaida.” It added, citing recent U.N. reports, that some of these groups have relations with elements of the Taliban.
“According to these reports, significant numbers of fighters for the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) appear to have free movement and shelter in Afghanistan and are carrying out an intensifying campaign of violence inside Pakistan.”
The report said the Taliban have demonstrated “limited responsiveness” to international engagement on the presence and treatment of such groups.
Pakistani officials say the TTP, a globally designated terrorist group, has intensified cross-border attacks from its Afghan sanctuaries since the Taliban returned to power two years ago, killing nearly 2,300 Pakistanis, including security forces.
The Taliban have not commented immediately on the reported U.N. assessment, though they have previously rejected criticism of their policies, including counterterrorism efforts. They have persistently defended their male-only administration, called the Islamic Emirate, as an inclusive dispensation representing all ethnicities and tribes in Afghanistan.
“It is clear from my consultations that we are universally united in our vision of an Afghanistan that is at peace with its people, its neighbors, and the international community,” said Sinirlioglu. “All stakeholders have a role to play in building a more peaceful, prosperous and predictable future for Afghanistan to the benefit of all Afghans.”
UN-Mandated Assessment Links Taliban’s Legitimacy to Afghan Women’s Freedom
ACCI said that the private sector of Afghanistan is also trying to solve the challenges of businessmen in a permanent way.
A trilateral trade and transit agreement was signed between Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan in Islamabad.
The extension of commercial relations, joint investments, and strengthening of the banking system were among the topics covered in the meeting relating to this matter, according to the Ministry of Industry and Commerce (MoIC).
“This meeting has emphasized strengthening trilateral economic relations, regional connectivity through trade development, more transit facilities, increasing joint investments, reducing costs, transportation facilities, electrification of customs systems, food safety, issuance of visas, and elimination of trilateral transit issues,” said MoIC spokesman Akhundzada Abdul Salaam Javad.
The Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment (ACCI) considers the meetings of the delegation of the Islamic Emirate with Pakistani officials as important in the development of trade in the region.
ACCI said that the private sector of Afghanistan is also trying to solve the challenges of businessmen in a permanent way.
“The demand of the high-ranking delegation of the Islamic Emirate is to allow the Afghan containers that have been stopped in Pakistan for a long time to pass, as well as to focus on transit, transportation and problems between Afghanistan and neighboring countries,” ACCI’s deputy head Khairuddin Mayel said.
According to some businesspeople, resolving businesspeople’s challenges plays an important role in business development and increasing exports.
“The economic balance between Afghanistan and Pakistan, especially the economy that depends on each other, should be planned for both countries in a way that will lead to economic growth of both countries,” said Mahbobullah Mohammadi, a businessman.
“We have good relations with Uzbekistan, and connecting South Asia with Central Asia through Afghanistan is in the interest of all countries in the region, especially the extension of the Trans-Afghan railway,” said Azerakhsh Hafizi, an economist.
Acting Minister of Industry and Commerce Nooruddin Azizi visited Pakistan on Monday leading a delegation that included members of the nation’s business sector and the Ministries of Finance, Transport, Aviation, and Foreign Affairs.
Trade Agreement Signed Between Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan
Women who work in various departments of the Ministry of Interior said that they have earned achievements in the security sector.
The Ministry of Interior (MoI) said that nearly two thousand employees of the ministry are women.
These women are working in the Ministry of Interior’s several departments, including the General Directorate of Passports, the Directorate of Public Services, and at checkpoints, according to Ministry spokesperson Abdul Mateen Qani.
“The presence of women in the ranks of the police, especially in the service offices of the Ministry of Interior Affairs, and in the security and in checkpoints are necessary. Currently, 1995 women are working in the service offices of the Ministry of Interior Affairs, including the General Directorate of Passports, the Directorate of Public Services, and checkpoints,” the spokesperson noted.
“More attention should be paid to the of presence of women, so that better services are provided to the people of Afghanistan,” said a military analyst.
Women who work in various departments of the Ministry of Interior said that they have earned achievements in the security sector.
“Women are working in the detective, criminal, and other fields. We are working here from 8 a.m. until the next morning at 8 a.m. We are working 24/7,” said Medina, an employee of the Ministry of Interior.
“We want to get rid of the misery and also help our country,” said Angela, another employee of the Ministry of Interior.
Shakila, who is working at one of the checkpoints in Kabul, said that it has been more than two years since she has been working as an employee of the Ministry of Interior.
“Here we are working in the physical inspection of women, in the women’s issues and also we are working outdoors, arresting people. They [police] cannot enter houses without us,” Shakila, an employee of the ministry told TOLOnews.
“Such opportunities should be provided to other women too, because it helps the society get better and the economic problems of women be resolved,” Saieda, another employee of MoI told TOLOnews.
According to the spokesperson of the Ministry of Interior, some of these women work in detective, criminal, and night operations divisions of the ministry.
A number of refugees deported from Pakistan criticized the treatment by the Pakistani military.
A number of refugees expelled from Pakistan say they have suffered psychologically due to harassment by the Pakistani military.
Officials at the health camp in Spin Boldak district of Kandahar say that many refugees deported from Pakistan are struggling with depression due to torture by the Pakistani military.
Every day, hundreds of Afghans who suffer from depression due to mistreatment and torture by Pakistani soldiers, visit this camp for counseling and medicine.
“They suffered from lots of problems during their return. We have services for depressed patients. During the two or three days that we came, 150 to 200 patients who have depression came to us,” Azad Afghan said, head of special health camp for returnee refugees.
A number of refugees deported from Pakistan criticized the treatment by the Pakistani military.
“The government of Pakistan was harassing and beating. Women and children were all by the side of the roads, this all has an affect,” said Abdulsamad, an expelled refugee.
“There was a lot of oppression on the border with us. The soldier was cursing there, they forced us out of the house and humiliated us,” said Ahmadullah, another expelled refugee.
In more than a month, more than 90,000 Afghans were deported from Pakistan and have entered the country through the Spin Boldak crossing.
Expelled Refugees Suffering From Psychological, Emotional Problems
The United Nations says aid workers are still in a “race against time” to remove rubble and rebuild after the devastating earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan last month, killing at least 2,200 people and cutting off remote areas.
The 6.0-magnitude quake on Aug. 31 was shallow, destroying or causing extensive damage to low-rise buildings in the mountainous region. It hit late at night, and homes — mostly made of mud, wood, or rocks — collapsed instantly, becoming death traps.
Satellite data shows that about 40,500 truckloads of debris still needs to be cleared from affected areas in several provinces, the United Nations Development Program said Wednesday. Entire communities have been upended and families are sleeping in the open, it added.
The quake’s epicenter was in remote and rugged Kunar province, challenging rescue and relief efforts by the Taliban government and humanitarian groups. Authorities deployed helicopters or airdropped army commandos to evacuate survivors. Aid workers walked for hours on foot to reach isolated communities.
“This is a race against time,” said Devanand Ramiah, from the UNDP’s Crisis Bureau. “Debris removal and reconstruction operations must start safely and swiftly.”
People’s main demands were the reconstruction of houses and water supplies, according to a spokesman for a Taliban government committee tasked with helping survivors, Zia ur Rahman Speenghar.
People were getting assistance in cash, food, tents, beds, and other necessities, Speenghar said Thursday. Three new roads were under construction in the Dewagal Valley, and roads would be built to areas where there previously were none.
“Various countries and organizations have offered assistance in the construction of houses but that takes time. After the second round of assistance, work will begin on the third round, which is considering what kind of houses can be built here,” the spokesman said.
Afghanistan is facing a “perfect storm” of crises, including natural disasters like the recent earthquake, said Roza Otunbayeva, who leads the U.N. mission to the country.
Afghanistan Peace Campaign
A poppy farmer and a labourer by the farmer’s crop in Nad Ali district, Helmand Province in spring of 2015. Photo by Andrew Quilty, 2015.
