The February agreement between the United States and the Taliban started the clock running for the withdrawal of all U.S. combat troops. The Pentagon announced in June that the first 5,000 troops had been withdrawn ahead of the July deadline, in spite of increased Taliban attacks on Afghan government forces. The Trump administration agreed to withdraw the remaining 8,600 U.S. troops by April 2021, but there are indications that the president wants all troops out by the November U.S. elections.

The Afghan government is in denial, apparently convinced that the Americans will not withdraw all troops and cut financial support. President Trump is not the first American president to announce he is leaving, but this time is different. President Trump wants to fulfill a campaign promise and, facing dealing a dire economic collapse, the United States can no longer afford to spend tens-of-billions of dollars a year on a war that was lost long ago. Moreover, Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, has long been a critic of the war and is on record promising to withdraw all combat troops in his first year in office should he be elected president.

The Afghan government is urging the United States to keep troops in Afghanistan until the Taliban agree to a long-term ceasefire and reach an agreement with the government for a political settlement of the war. This is a formula for an open-ended troop commitment.