The Islamic Emirate and the (Other) Authoritarians: Afghanistan-Central Asian relations since 2021

Since the Taliban’s return to power, they have invested heavily in building diplomatic relationships with the five states of Central Asia — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Under Republic-era governments, Central Asian governments – avowedly secular in outlook since they became independent nations – frequently sounded warnings over the threat that Islamic extremism posed to their own security and to the security of the wider world. Cracking down on Islamist opposition at home has been a consistent priority for the states of Central Asia. And yet they now appear interested in drawing closer to the Emirate. They have made diplomatic visits and hosted Emirate officials in return, announced numerous regional trade deals and promoted massive regional projects to deliver energy and transportation infrastructure. As AAN guest author Letty Phillips* explores, this suggests that pragmatic economic and regional interests have trumped earlier concerns.

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The second Emirate might be uninterested in accommodating the demands of Western powers, but it is not isolationist. In fact, establishing relationships with the five Central Asian states has become a key focus of the IEA’s foreign policy. Al-Emarah News, the official mouthpiece of the Emirate, describes this strategy as a “new and distinct era” in Afghanistan’s foreign relations, grounded in cooperation with neighbouring states.

This report examines how these interactions have developed over time and the pragmatism that now defines the relationship between the Emirate and its northern neighbours. Although none of the Central Asian states have formally recognised the Emirate, all have established practical channels for diplomacy, trade, and cooperation. Central Asian states, which were once cautious of the threat of Islamist extremism, are now opting for engagement, driven by concerns over stability, security and regional connectivity.

Drawing on open-source data and official statements, this report analyses the political, security, and economic aspects of these relationships. It reviews the expansion of cross-border trade as well as the progress – and limitations – of large infrastructure projects such as TAPI, CASA-1000 and regional railway links. It also considers illicit and informal trade networks and examines the role that customs revenues play in sustaining the Emirate.

Finally, the report explores how these regional connections contribute to the Emirate’s resilience. It finds that Afghanistan’s engagement with Central Asian states is indicative of a broader trend of cooperation among authoritarian states, in which shared interests in maintaining regime stability and ensuring non-interference outweigh ideological differences. These dynamics, the report argues, are central to understanding the future trajectory of Afghanistan’s foreign relations and internal governance under the current regime. These dynamics, the report argues, are crucial for understanding the future direction of Afghanistan’s foreign relations and its internal governance under the current regime.

Edited by Jelena Bjelica and Rachel Reid

*Letty Phillips is a researcher and analyst who worked in Afghanistan from 2021 to 2024.

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