Line drawn by 19th-century Britain stokes Pakistan-Taliban tension

Haq Nawaz Khan and Shaiq Hussain
The Washington Post
October 26, 2025

The Durand Line, a legacy of the British Empire from 1893, is dividing the neighbors today.

To Pakistan, it’s a fixed border. To Afghanistan, it’s merely hypothetical.

It’s the Durand Line: a legacy of the British Empire that’s dividing the neighbors today.

For weeks, Pakistani and Afghan forces have fought across — and over — the frontier drawn by 19th-century Britain through historically Pashtun lands. Now, as they attempt to negotiate a lasting ceasefire, the Taliban-run Afghan government is increasingly challenging its legality.

Dozens of soldiers and civilians have been killed this month in skirmishes along the line. Pakistan launched airstrikes against cities across Afghanistan two weeks ago, an escalation that threatened to turn the border dispute into a wider war.

A temporary ceasefire since then has largely held. But ahead of talks in Istanbul this weekend, there was little optimism that Pakistan and Afghanistan would find common ground on the differences — or the line — that divide them.

What is the Durand Line?

British officials drew the 1,640-mile Durand Line in 1893 to demarcate the border between Afghanistan and what was then the British Raj after the empire won the second of the three Anglo-Afghan wars.

It was the waning days of the 19th-century Great Game, when Britain and Russia competed for control in Central Asia. London sought to make Afghanistan a buffer between its and Moscow’s spheres of influence.

Under British pressure, Afghan Emir Abdur Rahman Khan accepted the loss of some ethnic Pashtun tribal lands, which were effectively annexed into British India.

The resulting frontier, which runs from China in the northeast to Iran in the southwest, was named for British diplomat Mortimer Durand, then the foreign secretary of India.

When Pakistan was created in the 1947 partition of India, it inherited the border. Since then, Islamabad has considered the matter settled, and has urged successive Afghan governments, and now the Taliban, to treat it as such. Ahead of the peace talks, Pakistani officials have reiterated that it’s not up for negotiation.

But Afghanistan has long disputed the line’s legitimacy. The Taliban have taken to referring to it as a “hypothetical” or “imaginary” border.

What’s the cause of the recent tensions?

More vexing to Pakistani officials, the Afghan Taliban have shown little interest in securing it against militants or smugglers. Of particular concern to Islamabad are militants in Pakistan who have sworn allegiance to the Afghan Taliban and are waging an expanding insurgency in the territory effectively annexed by Britain more than 130 years ago.

Pakistani officials blame most attacks on the Pakistani Taliban, or TTP. The group’s leader, Noor Wali Mehsud, was the target of an alleged Pakistani airstrike in Kabul two weeks ago that ignited more than a week of border clashes. Mehsud survived the attack and has since reemerged on camera. (Pakistan has not claimed responsibility for the strike.)

The Afghan Taliban deny supporting the TTP and the TTP denies being supported or sheltered by the Afghan Taliban. A senior member of the group said talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan have had no effect on its operations.

“There is no pressure on our leadership from the Islamic Emirate to not fight in Pakistan,” he said, using the Taliban regime’s name for itself. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

How does the line affect the people who live there?

Support for the TTP in the tribal border region appears to be limited. But the militants have been able to make some inroads recently by capitalizing on the longtime perception among people on both sides of the border that the Durand Line was not supposed to have any effect on their everyday lives.

For much of the 20th century, members of Pashtun communities and other tribes crossed the border several times a day without being stopped by border guards. In the 1980s, Pakistani officials even encouraged this as they shepherded weapons and fighters over the border to support the Afghan mujahideen in their fight against the Soviet Union.

The mujahideen — a precursor of the Taliban — drew support and recruits from large ethnic Pashtun communities on both sides of the border.

“People didn’t think of it as a border — there were no passports, no visas,” said Nisar Ali Khan Dawar, a 57-year-old tribal leader in Pakistan, who crossed the border freely into his 30s. “We went back and forth, attending weddings, funerals, or just to have dinner.”

What changed?

Free passage ended after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. The Taliban had sheltered al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden; the United States responded to the attacks by invading Afghanistan.

Under pressure from Washington, Pakistan closed border crossings and deployed troops to try to secure the border. Bin Laden slipped through to Pakistan anyway, but the impact on the border region has been severe and long-lasting.

Communities that depended on cross-border trade lost their revenue streams, said Nisar Baaz, a local politician who supports closer Afghan-Pakistani ties. “People have been left with nothing,” he said.

After the TTP formed in 2007 and started launching attacks in Pakistan, Islamabad moved to fortify the Durand Line, eventually building a fence that now runs along most of its length.

Still, the border remains virtually impossible to surveil. TTP fighters and traffickers have frequently breached the fence, and some locals support the militants’ efforts.

“This unjust line has divided and weakened the Pashtun Afghans, and we will never accept it,” Khan Dawar said.

Why are the Taliban pressing the issue now?

Analysts doubt that the Taliban government, recognized internationally only by Russia, can make a legal argument to challenge the Durand Line.

“Both Pakistan and Afghanistan have long treated the Durand Line as an actual international border,” said Ahmer Bilal Soofi, a former Pakistani justice minister. He noted that Afghan officials, for example, collect customs payments at frontier checkpoints.

The Taliban might view tensions along the Durand Line as domestically advantageous. “By raising this issue again and again, they are using Afghan nationalism to distract people,” said Zahid Hussain, a Pakistani political commentator.

“That may bring them short-term support at home,” he said, “but it will only increase instability for both countries.” Hussain cited the closure of Afghan-Pakistani border crossings for the past two weeks, which has left traders stuck on opposite sides of the border while millions of Afghans face severe hunger.

Shakir Afridi, a Pakistani trader in the border region, said the financial losses have cut deep. But even worse, he said, is the effect on thousands of expelled Afghan refugees who have been stuck on the Pakistani side of the border, in limbo between the country that’s pressuring them to leave and the country into which they’re being forced back.

More than 1 million Afghans have been deported or pressured to leave by Pakistan since 2023, in what’s been seen as an attempt to pressure the Afghan Taliban into reining in the TTP.

“Both sides should now at least allow the women and children to cross,” Afridi said.

Line drawn by 19th-century Britain stokes Pakistan-Taliban tension
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Afghanistan and Pakistan head to Turkey for second round of crisis talks

ISLAMABAD (AP) — Afghanistan and Pakistan are heading to Turkey for a second round of crisis talks, officials said Friday, after recent fighting between them killed dozens of people and injured hundreds more.

The neighbors are embroiled in a bitter security row that has become increasingly violent, with each side saying they were responding to aggression from the other.

Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of turning a blind eye to armed groups that cross the border for attacks, a charge the country’s Taliban rulers reject.

Last weekend, Qatar and Turkey mediated a ceasefire to pause the hostilities. The truce has largely held, although the countries’ border remains closed except for Afghan refugees leaving Pakistan.

Afghanistan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry said traders are losing millions of dollars a day because border transit and trade have ground to a halt.

Southern Kandahar Province was the worst-hit by the recent fighting, especially Spin Boldak on the border, where Pakistani airstrikes killed people and destroyed homes.

On Friday, the Taliban government’s chief spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, said Deputy Interior Minister Haji Najib was leading the delegation heading to Istanbul.

“There has been no major full-scale terrorist attack emanating from Afghan soil in the last two to three days,” Tahir Andrabi told journalists at a regular briefing. “So, the Doha talks and outcome were fruitful. We would like the trend to continue in Istanbul and post-Istanbul.”

Pakistan is struggling to combat militancy, mostly in areas bordering Afghanistan.

Andrabi said there was a clear message to Kabul to stop the attacks, control and apprehend armed groups, and “our relations could be back on track.”

“We are not asking for the moon,” Andrabi added. He did not say who was in the Pakistani delegation.

Afghanistan and Pakistan head to Turkey for second round of crisis talks
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Pakistan defence minister warns of ‘open war’ with Afghanistan if peace talks fail

By

Reuters

KARACHI, Oct 25 (Reuters) – Pakistan’s defence minister said on Saturday he believes Afghanistan wants peace but that failure to reach an agreement during talks in Istanbul would mean “open war,” days after both sides agreed to a ceasefire following deadly border clashes.
The talks in Istanbul, which began on Saturday and are expected to continue into Sunday, mark the latest attempt by Pakistan and Afghanistan to prevent a relapse into violence after the worst border fighting since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover of Kabul.
The talks are meant to devise a mechanism to enforce the Doha ceasefire longer term.
Khawaja Muhammad Asif said there had been no incidents in the four to five days since it was agreed, and both sides were complying with the truce.
“We have the option, if no agreement takes place, we have an open war with them,” he said in televised remarks from Pakistan. “But I saw that they want peace.”
The clashes erupted earlier this month after Islamabad demanded that the Taliban curb militants it says are attacking Pakistan from sanctuaries inside Afghanistan.
Pakistan launched airstrikes across the border and both sides exchanged heavy fire, killing dozens and prompting the closure of key crossings that remain shut.
Islamabad accuses Kabul of sheltering militants who target Pakistani forces. The Taliban rejects the charge and says Pakistan’s military operations violate Afghan sovereignty.
Pakistan defence minister warns of ‘open war’ with Afghanistan if peace talks fail
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Germany to End Afghan Refugee Program Citing Bureaucratic Delays

By Fidel Rahmati

Germany plans to cancel its special Afghan refugee admission program, citing lengthy procedures and bureaucratic hurdles that left thousands stranded in Pakistan awaiting relocation.

Germany is preparing to cancel its special admission programs for Afghan refugees due to prolonged processing times and complex bureaucratic hurdles, according to a report aired on Monday.

The public broadcaster MDR said the decision follows years of administrative delays that have left thousands of Afghans stranded in Pakistan after fleeing Kabul in 2021.

The report, part of MDR’s Exactly documentary series titled “Afghanistan and Refugees: Germany’s False Promises,” highlights the plight of Afghans who sought protection from Germany but remain in legal limbo.

According to the investigation, Berlin’s admission initiatives for at-risk Afghans have so far benefited only a limited number of applicants, while the majority face indefinite waits for visa approval.

Roughly 2,000 Afghans who previously received assurances of relocation from the German government are still waiting in Pakistan, many of them women’s rights activists, journalists, human rights defenders, and former military aides.

The documentary warns that ending the program could amount to “the formal end of Germany’s moral responsibility” toward its Afghan partners, many of whom face grave risks under Taliban rule.

Rights groups have urged Berlin to reconsider, calling the cancellation a betrayal of those who assisted German forces and institutions during the war.

Observers say the move reflects Europe’s broader shift toward stricter migration controls and highlights the growing disconnect between humanitarian pledges and political will.

Germany to End Afghan Refugee Program Citing Bureaucratic Delays
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UK Backs Afghanistan–Pakistan Ceasefire, Calls It Key Step Toward Regional Stability

The UK expressed support for the Afghanistan–Pakistan ceasefire, calling it a vital step toward reducing border tensions and promoting regional stability.

The United Kingdom has voiced support for the ceasefire agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan, calling it an important step toward easing border tensions and strengthening regional stability.

Hamish Faulkner, the UK’s Deputy Foreign Minister for the Middle East and North Africa, said in a post on X that London welcomes the agreement as a foundation for further diplomatic engagement between the two countries.

Faulkner praised Qatar and Turkey for mediating the talks that led to the ceasefire, describing their role as vital to maintaining peace and preventing future escalation in South Asia.

He added that lasting peace can only be achieved through joint efforts to combat militant threats and ensure open communication channels between neighboring nations.

The British government emphasized that de-escalation between Afghanistan and Pakistan is crucial not only for regional security but also for humanitarian and trade stability along their shared border.

Relations between the two countries have deteriorated in recent months amid cross-border clashes, mutual accusations of harboring armed groups, and repeated closures of key trade routes.

Analysts say London’s statement reflects renewed international interest in stabilizing South Asia, where border conflicts have disrupted economic ties and contributed to worsening humanitarian conditions.

Diplomats believe the UK’s endorsement could encourage broader cooperation among regional and global partners to sustain the ceasefire and promote dialogue between Kabul and Islamabad.

UK Backs Afghanistan–Pakistan Ceasefire, Calls It Key Step Toward Regional Stability
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Mujahid: We Seek Good Relations with All Countries, Including U.S.

According to the spokesperson, there have also been communications between the United States and the Islamic Emirate on this matter.

The spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan stated that Afghanistan seeks good relations with all countries, including the United States.

Zabihullah Mujahid, speaking to TOLOnews, emphasized that in the view of the Islamic Emirate, relations between Afghanistan and the United States should be focused solely on economic and political areas.

Mujahid said: “We support good relations with all countries, including the U.S., and our relations should rely on two channels: diplomatic and trade. In this regard, we have always reached out and encouraged the U.S. to engage with us in these areas.”

The spokesperson also referred to recent remarks by the U.S. President about the Bagram Airbase and said that instead of such statements, Donald Trump should reopen the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.

According to the spokesperson, there have also been communications between the United States and the Islamic Emirate on this matter.

He added: “They sometimes talk about Bagram or other matters. We told them: instead of Bagram, activate your embassy in Kabul. By reopening this diplomatic channel, Afghanistan and the U.S. can have proper and legitimate relations. We support good ties, let’s see what they say.”

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s emphasis on economic and political relations with the U.S. comes as the Deputy National Security Advisor to the U.S. President previously stated that the current leadership in Afghanistan has cooperated to some extent with the U.S. in counterterrorism efforts.

Mohammad Amin Karim, an international relations expert, commented on the future of Kabul–Washington relations: “In the United States, there is ongoing contention between those who support and those who oppose engagement with the current system in Afghanistan, which has yet to reach a conclusion. We may see the announcement of a long-term U.S. policy on Afghanistan in the coming weeks or months.”

Although the current U.S. President has repeatedly criticized the manner of the country’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, the official stance of the United States regarding Afghanistan remains unclear.

Mujahid: We Seek Good Relations with All Countries, Including U.S.
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Pakistan Demolishes Afghan Refugee Settlement in Karachi Amid Deportation Drive

Pakistan has demolished over 1,200 homes in a long-standing Afghan refugee settlement in Karachi amid an ongoing nationwide deportation drive targeting undocumented Afghans.

Authorities in Pakistan said Monday that demolition operations targeting Afghan refugee settlements in Karachi have entered their fifth consecutive day, as part of a broader campaign to repatriate undocumented Afghans.

Officials confirmed that more than 1,200 residential and commercial units have so far been demolished in the Manghopir area, once home to thousands of Afghan refugees.

The settlement, established in 1984 and spanning roughly 215 hectares, had long served as a major hub for Afghan migrants who fled conflict in their home country over the decades.

Police officials overseeing the operation said the demolitions are part of the government’s policy to clear encroachments on state land and facilitate the return of Afghans residing illegally in Pakistan.

Deputy Superintendent of Police Manghopir said that over 90 percent of the settlement’s residents have already crossed back into Afghanistan, while another 800 to 1,000 people are expected to leave in the coming days.

Human rights activists have expressed concern over the pace of the demolitions, warning that the forced evictions risk leaving vulnerable families without shelter or access to basic services.

The operation in Karachi comes amid Pakistan’s nationwide campaign to expel undocumented Afghan nationals, which Islamabad says is aimed at addressing security concerns but has drawn criticism from the United Nations and international aid groups.

Pakistan Demolishes Afghan Refugee Settlement in Karachi Amid Deportation Drive
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Zaeef: Dialogue ‘Only Solution’ to Disputes with Pakistan

Zaeef added that dialogue is the best way to resolve long-standing disputes between the two countries.

While the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan in Doha has opened a new window of hope for reducing military tensions between the two countries, Abdul Salam Zaeef, former ambassador of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to Islamabad, says the agreement will only be sustainable if both parties remain committed to their obligations and mediating countries like Qatar and Turkey play an active monitoring role.

Zaeef added that dialogue is the best way to resolve long-standing disputes between the two countries.

He stated: “In Doha, an agreement was reached on a ceasefire, and it was also agreed that any disputes or claims one side has against the other should be resolved through negotiation. I believe this is a necessity, and all problems should be solved through understanding, not through escalation.”

In an interview with TOLOnews, Zaeef described Pakistan’s recent attacks on Afghan soil as “war crimes” and emphasized that these incidents must be investigated by international bodies.

Abdul Salam Zaeef, former ambassador of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to Islamabad, said: “Pakistan attacked Afghanistan thinking the West or the U.S. would intervene and mediate, but they remained indifferent, and the war ended to Pakistan’s detriment.”

In another part of his remarks, he warned that if the ceasefire is violated by Pakistan, Afghanistan will be in a defensive position.

Zaeef stressed: “If anyone commits aggression, Afghans and the army are ready to defend the country’s territorial integrity.”

He also touched on trade issues with Pakistan, stating that Islamabad should not use economic relations as a tool of pressure.

Zaeef: Dialogue ‘Only Solution’ to Disputes with Pakistan
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Pakistan says ceasefire hinges on Afghanistan curbing armed groups

By Lorraine Mallinder
Reuters

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif has said that his country’s fragile ceasefire agreement with Afghanistan depends on whether the latter reins in armed groups attacking across their shared border.

“Everything hinges on this one clause,” said Asif in an interview with news agency Reuters on Monday, after the two countries reached a ceasefire agreement brokered by Qatar and Turkiye the previous day.

The truce followed a week of deadly border clashes that saw relations plummet to their lowest point since Afghanistan’s Taliban returned to power after the exit of US and NATO troops from the country in 2021.

The fighting was triggered after Islamabad demanded that Kabul control fighters from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella of several armed groups commonly known as the Pakistan Taliban, saying they operated from havens in Afghanistan.

“Anything coming from Afghanistan will be [a] violation of this agreement,” said Asif, who led the talks with his Afghan counterpart Mullah Muhammad Yaqoob. He said that the written agreement stipulated there would not be any incursions.

The minister said that TTP operated “in connivance” with Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban, an allegation that the latter has denied. Afghanistan accuses the Pakistani military of spreading misinformation and sheltering ISIL (ISIS)-linked fighters to undermine its stability and sovereignty.

Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesperson, said that under the terms of the agreement, “neither country will undertake any hostile actions against the other, nor will they support groups carrying out attacks against the Government of Pakistan”.

Mujahid said the countries had agreed on refraining “from targeting each other’s security forces, civilians, or critical infrastructure”.

The Pakistan Taliban, which has been waging a war for years against Islamabad in a bid to overthrow the government, has accelerated attacks in recent months to target Pakistan’s military.

Pakistan security officials said the military carried out air strikes on the Afghan capital Kabul, including one on October 9 in an attempt to kill Pakistan Taliban leader Noor Wali Mehsud, though he later appeared in a video showing he was alive.

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“We were being attacked. Our territory was being attacked. So we just did tit for tat. We were paying them in the same coin,” Asif said.

“They are in Kabul. They are everywhere. Wherever they are, we will attack them. Kabul is not, you know, a no-go area.”

The next round of talks is scheduled to be held in Istanbul on October 25 to evolve a mechanism on how to enforce the agreement, Asif said.

Pakistan says ceasefire hinges on Afghanistan curbing armed groups
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What we know about Pakistan-Afghanistan ceasefire, will it hold?

By Al Jazeera Staff
Islamabad and Kabul commit to ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Turkiye, but will it hold amid mutual distrust?

Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to an “immediate ceasefire” after a week of deadly clashes along their border, as the ties between the two South Asian neighbours plunged to their lowest point since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

Both countries agreed to stop fighting and work towards “lasting peace and stability” after peace talks in Doha, the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Sunday, about the deal it mediated alongside Turkiye.

Dozens of people have been killed and hundreds wounded in the worst bout of violence in recent years. The violence erupted on October 11 at multiple fronts along their 2,600km (1,600-mile) border, after Islamabad allegedly carried out strikes in Kabul and the southeastern province of Paktika against what it said were armed groups linked to attacks inside Pakistan.

So, what do we know about the truce agreement and what might come next?

What do we know about the ceasefire?

After a round of negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan in the Qatari capital, Doha, “the two sides agreed to an immediate ceasefire and the establishment of mechanisms to consolidate lasting peace and stability between the two countries,” Qatar’s Foreign Ministry announced in a statement.

“The two parties also agreed to hold follow-up meetings in the coming days to ensure the sustainability of the ceasefire and verify its implementation in a reliable and sustainable manner, thus contributing to achieving security and stability in both countries,” the statement added.

Following the Qatari ministry’s statement, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif posted confirmation of the deal on X.

“Cross-border terrorism from Afghan territory will cease immediately,” Asif wrote. “Both countries will respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Asif further confirmed a “follow-up meeting between the delegations is scheduled to take place in the Turkish city of Istanbul on October 25 to discuss the matters in detail.”

Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said the truce was “the first step in the right direction”.

“We look forward to the establishment of a concrete and verifiable monitoring mechanism, in the next meeting to be hosted by Turkiye, to address the menace of terrorism emanating from Afghan soil towards Pakistan. It is important to put all efforts in place to prevent any further loss of lives,” he posted on X.

Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesperson, said that under the terms of the agreement, “both sides reaffirm their commitment to peace, mutual respect, and the maintenance of strong and constructive neighbourly relations.

“Both sides are committed to resolving issues and disputes through dialogue,” Mujahid said in a post on X. “It has been decided that neither country will undertake any hostile actions against the other, nor will they support groups carrying out attacks against the Government of Pakistan.”

Mujahid said the countries have agreed on refraining “from targeting each other’s security forces, civilians, or critical infrastructure”.

Mujahid, as well as Dar and Asif, thanked Qatar and Turkiye for their role in facilitating the talks that led to the ceasefire.

Why Pakistan has blamed the Taliban for attacks inside its territory?

Pakistan wants the Taliban to rein in armed groups such as the Taliban Pakistan, known by the acronym TTP, and others blamed for carrying out attacks on its territory. Armed attacks by TTP rebels and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which operates in the resource-rich Balochistan province, have surged in recent years, with 2025 on track to become the deadliest year.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which border Afghanistan, have borne the brunt of the violence.

At least 2,414 deaths have been recorded in the first three quarters of this year, according to the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), an Islamabad-based think tank.

Pakistan and the Taliban, once allies over shared regional security interests, have fallen out as Islamabad claims that Afghanistan is giving haven to the TTP – an allegation Kabul has rejected.

Kabul and Islamabad have also clashed over their international border, called the Durand Line, which is recognised by Pakistan but not by Afghanistan.

TTP’s ideology is aligned with the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, the groups have different goals and operate independently.

Pakistan has sought assurances from the Taliban that these groups, which operate in the porous border regions with Afghanistan, will not be allowed to operate freely and that the attacks across the border will cease.

In a post later on Sunday, Mujahid, the Taliban spokesman, stressed that the Afghan soil “will not be allowed to be used against any other country”. It is “the consistent stance of the Islamic Emirate” he said, referring to the official name of the Afghanistan government.

“It does not support any attack against anyone and has always emphasised this stance,” he posted on X.

Islamabad also wants the Taliban to prevent the regrouping or expansion of anti-Pakistan networks within Afghanistan, which the government considers a threat to Pakistan’s stability and broader regional strategy.

Abdullah Baheer, a political analyst based in Kabul, said the bombing of Afghanistan and killing of civilians is “a problematic model”.

“Show me one piece of evidence that shows they hit any TTP operative in Afghanistan in the past week of bombing, despite the 50-odd dead and 550 injured,” he told Al Jazeera.

He added that the TTP is a local rebel group within Pakistan that far precedes the Taliban’s coming to power in Afghanistan. “Are you expecting the Taliban to come forth and stop the TTP from pursuing any of its political or military goals?” he asked.

“Let’s take the argument that TTP are operating from safe havens within Afghanistan. The question is, you mistake influence over a group that is an independent group to an extent of controlling them,” he added.

As previously mentioned, the Taliban denies providing safe haven to TTP within Afghanistan’s borders.

Why the spike in attacks inside Pakistan?

Islamabad was the prime backer of the Taliban after it was removed by US-led NATO troops in 2001. It was also accused of providing a haven to Taliban fighters as they waged an armed rebellion against the United States’ occupation of Afghanistan for 20 years.

But relations have soured over the surge in attacks inside Pakistan.

The TTP has re-emerged as one of Pakistan’s biggest national security threats, as it has conducted more than 600 attacks against Pakistani forces in the past year, according to a report by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an independent nonprofit.

According to the CRSS, the Islamabad-based think tank, the first three-quarters of this year have seen a 46 percent surge in violence compared with last year.

The violence attributed to the TTP had decreased from its peak in the late 2000s and early 2010s after Islamabad involved the armed groups in talks and addressed some of their demands in 2021, which include the release of their members from prison and an end to military operations in the tribal areas.

The TTP also demanded the reversal of the 2018 merger of the tribal region with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. A stricter imposition of their interpretation of Islamic law is also one of their demands.

A month after the Taliban took over Kabul in August 2021, it mediated talks between the Pakistani military and the TTP, a decision endorsed and pushed by Imran Khan, Pakistan’s then-prime minister. But Khan, who championed talks with the armed groups, was removed as prime minister in April 2022.

Violence surged after the TTP unilaterally walked out of the ceasefire deal in 2022, after accusing Islamabad of renewed military operations in the region.

Since its founding in 2007, the TTP has targeted civilians and law enforcement personnel, resulting in thousands of deaths. Their deadliest attack came in December 2014, when they targeted the Army Public School (APS) in Peshawar, killing more than 130 students.

The group remains banned in Pakistan and has been designated a “terrorist” group by the US.

The Pakistani army has conducted multiple operations to eliminate the group, but has struggled to achieve its goal as fighters have used the porous border to move back and forth between the neighbouring countries.

Baheer, the political analyst, said that there are “no winners in war. There are only losers”.

“This logic of bombing Afghanistan into submission didn’t work for the United States for 20 years of their occupation. Why do we think it will work now?” the Kabul-based analyst asked.

What we know about Pakistan-Afghanistan ceasefire, will it hold?
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