Ben Quinn

An American expert warns that China is seeking to dominate Afghanistan’s untapped rare earth resources to strengthen regional influence and control.

In an article published on Sunday, May 11, in the Washington Times, Worden argued that the shutdown of USIP weakens U.S. soft power globally and accelerates the expansion of Chinese and Russian influence.

Worden, who previously managed the Afghanistan and Central Asia programs at USIP, stated that China’s growing investments in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative make the closure of USIP a “gift” to Beijing. He emphasized that Afghanistan is crucial for connecting China’s interests in Pakistan and Central Asia.

China has already made significant infrastructure investments in Pakistan, and its presence in Central Asia, including in sectors like trade, energy, and infrastructure, has been expanding. Worden noted that China is focused on exploiting rare earth elements, which are abundant in Afghanistan but yet to be fully mined, to bolster its regional influence.

The closure of the U.S. Institute of Peace marks a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy in Afghanistan, potentially paving the way for increased Chinese influence. Worden’s remarks underscore the ongoing strategic competition in the region, as Beijing seeks to exploit Afghanistan’s untapped resources to further its ambitions. The move also highlights the broader geopolitical contest for influence in Central Asia and the Middle East.

A UNDP report reveals 90% of Afghan households faced economic shocks in 2024, exacerbating the country’s ongoing humanitarian crisis.

A recent report from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) highlights that 90% of Afghan households are facing an economic shock in 2024 due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The report indicates that 65% of households have been directly impacted by this shock, with a 35% increase compared to 2023. The report warns that Afghanistan is sliding deeper into socio-economic crises, with widening inequalities, especially for women and rural areas.

The European Union’s delegation in Kabul also expressed concerns, noting that the restrictions imposed on women and girls between 2024 and 2026 could cause a loss of over $920 million to Afghanistan’s economy. These limitations continue to exacerbate the country’s economic and social challenges, further undermining progress in key sectors.

According to the UN report, 9 out of 10 Afghan households have lost their productive assets, income sources, livelihoods, and job opportunities. This widespread loss has led families to cut down on daily consumption and reduce expenditures, decreasing their resilience to future shocks and deepening their vulnerability.

In addition to these challenges, Afghanistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) saw a modest growth of 2.7% from 2023 to 2024, marking the first positive growth since 2019. However, the report highlights that Afghanistan’s economy remains fragile, with a significant trade deficit of $6.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, up from $5.1 billion during the same period in 2023.

The UNDP also emphasizes that Afghanistan remains heavily reliant on imports and international aid, with 75% of the population facing food insecurity in 2024. This figure represents a 6% increase from 2023, with rural areas—home to 71% of the population—continuing to suffer from a lack of essential services, including healthcare, sanitation, and sustainable livelihoods.

As the situation in Afghanistan continues to worsen, the UNDP urges international actors to increase support to help mitigate the devastating impact of the ongoing crisis. The report also highlights the critical need for targeted assistance for women-headed households, rural communities, and internally displaced populations, who have been hit hardest by the economic downturn.

The report further stresses the importance of addressing gender disparities, with women continuing to face increasing poverty and social isolation due to the continued restrictions on education and employment opportunities. The future of Afghanistan’s economy and society depends on effective, inclusive policies and inclusive government and international cooperation to address these persistent challenges.

A U.S.-backed report warns that reduced rainfall, rising heat, and poor crop conditions are pushing Afghanistan into severe food crisis.

A recent report from a U.S.-based agency warns that Afghanistan is on the brink of a widespread food security crisis due to unprecedented declines in rainfall, rising temperatures, and severe agricultural conditions. More than half of the country’s population now requires humanitarian aid.

The findings from the “Famine Early Warning Network,” supported by U.S. government funding and in collaboration with organizations such as the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, indicate that Afghanistan will experience 40% lower-than-average rainfall between October 2024 and April 2025. This marks a significant departure from the 40-year historical averages.

The report highlights that the most severe rainfall declines have been in the northern and western provinces, where agricultural life and food supply chains are now critically threatened. In some areas, the decrease in rainfall has surpassed 50%. The lack of rain has delayed planting, weakened germination, and intensified drought pressures in rain-fed land, putting winter wheat under significant stress during key growth phases like flowering and grain filling.

Additionally, snow reserves are at their lowest levels, with snow water equivalent indices in the country’s watersheds being 40-60% below average. This decrease is especially concerning for areas dependent on snowmelt, such as the central and northeastern provinces.

Unusually high temperatures have exacerbated the situation. In April, temperatures across Afghanistan were 2 to 4 degrees Celsius above normal. This heat has increased evaporation rates and reduced soil moisture, with forecasts for May and June predicting a continuation of this trend.

Satellite images show a dramatic decline in vegetation quality in provinces like Badghis, Ghor, and Faryab, directly affecting pastures and livestock nutrition. This environmental stress is compounded by the rising cost of essential food items. While the prices of flour and rice remain relatively stable, the cost of oil, salt, and animal feed has increased by 18%, 22%, and 12%, respectively.

The report also notes that 23.7 million people—over half the population—are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. Among them, approximately 3.4 million children under five years old are suffering from acute malnutrition.

Afghanistan, a nation reliant on agriculture and livestock, has long been vulnerable to climate change. Recent decades have witnessed recurring droughts, decreasing water reserves, and rising annual temperatures. The current crisis, marked by reduced snow reserves, failing vegetation, and changing rainfall patterns, underscores the intensifying impact of climate change on the country.

Climate analysts have warned that the second half of 2025 could see the return of the La Niña phase, which has previously been linked to increased droughts in South and Central Asia. This could push the current crisis to even more alarming levels, underscoring the need for international interventions and proactive policy measures.