Sangin (Afghanistan) (AFP) – Asadullah was a prosperous poppy farmer in southern Afghanistan for 20 years until Taliban authorities abruptly began enforcing a long-standing ban on the crop.
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From four acres (1.6 hectares) in Helmand — long the heartland of poppy production — the 65-year-old earned between 250,000 to 500,000 Afghani ($3,500 to $7,000) per season from the plant, which is used to produce opium and heroin.
Forced by the authorities to switch to other crops, he is now struggling to make ends meet.
“We are finished. We don’t have anything to eat for dinner,” laments Asadullah, his weathered face and long white beard showing his hardship.
“Now we barely make 25,000 Afghani.”
Like his neighbours in the village of Torma — sweltering in heat and criss-crossed by streams where boys play — Asadullah first tried planting corn, which failed.
“We didn’t have money for fertiliser,” he said, adding most people turned to the hardier mung bean, which is easier to grow but yields a fraction of the profit of poppy.
Growers hit hard
The decree from Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada in April 2022 banning poppy production in the world’s top producing country caused a 95 percent drop in harvests last year.
But it also hit the growers hard, and according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, the eradication of poppy inflicted losses of over a billion dollars on Afghan farmers last year.
Lala Khan, 40, switched to growing cotton when it became clear the authorities were determined to enforce the ban — but his annual income plummeted.
“We used to eat meat once every three days, now it’s once a month,” he says.
Khan says he received only “a sack of flour and a sack of fertiliser” as compensation for stopping poppy production.
“What can we do with that?” he asks.
Ehsanullah, another former poppy grower, can barely conceal his anger at his current plight.
“We buy all our daily needs on credit. And when we harvest, we repay the debts and have nothing left.”
Secret stash
In the neighbouring village of Khumarai, the local imam known as Bismillah explains that 80 percent of the land in the area was previously used to grow poppy, and 20 percent for wheat, corn, beans and cotton.
In Afghanistan, where huge families are the norm, one of the biggest expenses for households is a dowry to marry off daughters.
“We could pay it with opium, but not with corn and beans,” he says.
Some people, like Bismillah, still have a stash of poppy resin left over from their last crop — an Afghan equivalent of cash stuffed under the mattress.
“Most people keep some at home, but they avoid saying it for fear of thieves,” Bismillah says, showing AFP a basin containing around half a kilogram (one pound) of the sticky brown resin.
“We are waiting for the price to go higher… we are hoping to pay (the dowries) with it”.
In Maiwand, in the neighbouring province of Kandahar, the former opium market is now deserted and Hunar, 40, has turned to selling sugar, oil, tea and sweets instead.
“For us, obeying the order of the Emir (the supreme leader) is obligatory,” he said.
But he warned people were struggling so badly, there was a risk they would return to growing poppy.
Not all provinces have been as compliant as Helmand in stopping poppy production.
In May, clashes between farmers and brigades sent to destroy their poppy fields resulted in several deaths in northeast Badakhshan.
“Death to the Emirate (Taliban-ruled Afghanistan),” some shouted in video of the clashes seen on social media.
Uncertain future
According to the International Crisis Group (ICG), the strict enforcement of the ban has created enormous hardship for a huge swath of rural Afghanistan.
“Implemented with growing seriousness, the Taliban’s anti-narcotics campaign has profoundly affected a country that ranks among the world’s largest suppliers of illegal drugs,” a report released this month said.
But it warned the ban’s future was uncertain.
“Although the Taliban are adamant about implementing it, it could collapse under the weight of economic hardship,” it said.
The ICG says while huge investment was needed to help farmers produce profitable crops such as pomegranates, figs, almonds, or pistachios, that was still a short-term fix.
“Licit crops will not offer sufficient employment, so the focus should be on job creation in non-farm industries,” the report said.
Meanwhile in Maiwand, another former opium seller said while the open market had been shut down, deals were still being made.
“Everyone has opium,” he says.
“People generally have 10 to 15 kilos of opium from previous harvests, which they only sell to their contacts. It’s sold in small quantities, under the counter.”
Afghan religious police wield new power to enforce a ban on women raising their voices in public and looking at men other than their husbands or relatives.
As the Taliban begins enforcing new draconian laws, Afghan women say that whatever hopes they once harbored for an easing of the severe restrictions on them have largely vanished.
The new religious code issued late last month bans women from raising their voices, reciting the Quran in public and looking at men other than their husbands or relatives. It requires women to cover the lower half of their faces in addition to donning a head covering they were already expected to wear, among other rules.
Women’s lives were heavily regulated by the Taliban-run government before the latest rules were promulgated, and some of the new laws codify restrictions that were already imposed on women in practice. But Afghan women, speaking in phone interviews over the past week, pointed to mounting signs of a crackdown in urban areas, where rules had been less rigorously enforced.
The Taliban’s morality police, which is an extension of the regime’s most conservative elements, appears to have been handed an unprecedented amount of power in the capital, Kabul, and elsewhere, women said. While the morality police’s white robes were a rare sight in Kabul, they have become omnipresent since late August, several women said.
Officers are roaming bus stops and shopping centers searching for dress-code violations or any women who might laugh or raise their voices. On Fridays, the Muslim holy day, religious police officers disperse women in some parts of Kabul and accuse them of preventing male shop owners from making it to the mosque in time for prayers. Women are an increasingly rare sight on Afghan television broadcasts.
While girls were banned from going to school above sixth grade and women barred from universities soon after the Taliban took power three years ago, some still attended English classes as recently as a few weeks ago. But after the Taliban’s morality police issued warnings to male teachers, according to students, many families now refuse to let their daughters participate. Other women have decided to stay home out of fear.
“Three weeks ago, I was still hopeful that the Taliban may change and remove the restrictions on girls’ education,” said Meena, a Kabul resident in her 20s who runs secret classes for teenage girls. “But once they published their vice and virtue law, I lost all hope,” she said. The women interviewed for this story spoke on the condition that they remain anonymous or that only their first names be published due to fear of drawing unwanted scrutiny from the Taliban regime.
Another women’s rights activist who also lives in Kabul said she had been banned from studying when the Taliban held power in the 1990s. Now, she sees history repeating itself. “The entire country has turned into a graveyard for women’s dreams,” said the 48-year-old woman. She added that initial signs that Taliban rule would be less extreme the second time around have not borne out.
When the Taliban seized power in August 2021, the new government quickly imposed far-ranging restrictions on women. But afterward, many of these changes — particularly the bans on education — were portrayed by Taliban officials as temporary. Those officials were often unable to specify what these rules required, leaving some room for interpretation that translated into regional variation in how the rules were followed. There remained a large difference, for example, between urban Kabul and the conservative rural south of the country.
But now, some women said, hopes are waning that urban influences could moderate the Taliban.
“There are two groups within the Taliban,” said Sajia, 24, a female former university student. “One group seemed to be moderate and eager to bend the rules. But now, with the restrictions approved as law, it seems that they have failed and there is no hope left.”
Others gave up hoping long ago that the Taliban leadership could be made more tolerant. “When it comes to cruelty and restrictions, they are all on the same page,” said a 20-year-old female Kabul resident, who was admitted by Kabul University’s archaeology department just when the Taliban banned women from studying.
The Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, which oversees the morality police, could not be reached for comment. Two former senior officials with the ministry said the position of spokesman is vacant.
In a video statement to RTA, a Taliban-run broadcaster, Justice Ministry spokesman Barakatullah Rasouli said the new regulations emphasize “respect for human dignity of individuals” and advise officials to preach “gently.” The Taliban maintains that women’s lives have improved under its three-year rule and frequently argues that restrictions on women are for their protection.
Afghan women’s rights activists counter that the Quran does not ban women from getting educated and imposes far fewer rules about proper dress than the ones mandated by the Taliban.
Many of the Taliban’s beliefs are partly rooted in centuries-old Pashtun culture, which remains entrenched in many rural areas of Afghanistan. In these areas, it is not only men who share the Taliban’s views. In Kabul, some women particularly fear female members of the morality police, who are often recruited from conservative suburbs. “They behave even more aggressively than the male officers do,” said a 20-year-old female Kabul resident.
Many women in Kabul say they doubt the Taliban’s religious justifications for the rules, and there is widespread speculation that the regime is adding restrictions on women’s rights so it can later bargain them away in negotiations with international agencies and foreign capitals. The Taliban has been seeking international recognition for its government — so far, no country has done so — and trying to gain access to Afghan Central Bank reserves that remain frozen. Afghan leaders hope such a breakthrough would give a boost to the economy, helping to ease unemployment and hunger.
Some Afghan women blame the outside world for their vanishing freedoms. “The silence of the world over the last three years will go down as a dark chapter in history,” said Meena, echoing a widespread sentiment in the country that global attention has moved on from Afghanistan.
Many of the women she speaks to say they have unsuccessfully applied for scholarships abroad, she said, and are running out of options.
“The Taliban will keep using religion as a weapon against women,” she said. “To them, seeing the hair of a girl is a sin, but starving your country is not.”
Lutfullah Qasimyar and Haq Nawaz Khan contributed to this report.
Taliban begins enforcing new draconian laws, and Afghan women despair
Regime suspends polio campaign across Afghanistan over security concerns and women’s role in vaccination drive
Afghanistan is at risk of a polio outbreak, health officials have warned, after the Taliban suspended the vaccination campaign over security fears and restrictions on women.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed 18 new cases of polio infection in the country so far this year, a significant increase from the six cases reported in 2023. Local healthcare workers say these numbers could be higher as many cases will not yet have been detected.
The Taliban had “temporarily suspended” polio vaccinations in Afghanistan, a health official involved with the campaign confirmed to the Guardian, because of security concerns and women’s involvement in administering vaccines.
A highly infectious viral disease, polio can cause paralysis and death, particularly in infants and young children.
“The reason behind the postponing of the polio campaign is the issues with the modality of implementation,” the health official explained on condition of anonymity. “The leadership of the current government has ordered us to not conduct door-to door campaigns.”
Instead, the Taliban government wants to shift vaccination efforts to local mosques, with the expectation that families would bring their children to get doses.
“This is very bad news for the polio programme,” the official said. “For the eradication to be successful, we need to cover more than 95% of the children with two doses of the vaccine.
“But without the door-to-door campaigns, we will not be able to reach [that target]. It puts the whole country at risk, even the region.”
“One of the reasons for banning door-to-door campaigns was security. The south, especially Kandahar, is where the Taliban leaders live, and they are concerned the campaigns could reveal their locations to foreign threats,” the official said.
Fake vaccination campaigns in Afghanistan and Pakistan were reportedly used by US intelligence agencies to identify and confirm terrorist hideouts, including those of Osama bin Laden. This led to massive mistrust of the campaigns across the region, with several attacks on polio workers over the past decade.
A local healthcare worker in Kandahar said that door-to-door vaccination was already banned in southern Afghanistan.
“In Kandahar and even in parts of Uruzgan province, vaccinations have been taking place only in the local mosques for many years now,” one of them said.
While the Taliban have banned women from working in various sectors, women in healthcare have largely been allowed to remain in their jobs.
However, the healthcare worker said: “Women in the southern region face restrictions from local authorities in participating in the programme, particularly in the rural areas.”
The health official agreed. “Women have been crucial to the success of the door-to-door campaigns and raising awareness of the vaccines among mothers and families since, in a deeply conservative society, men would not be allowed into those spaces,” they said.
Of the 18 cases reported this year, 11 are in Kandahar. “In the rest of Afghanistan, there are no issues with female polio workers, and in those areas where we have female workers, we don’t have cases of polio. They are directly responsible for the eradication of polio in those parts,” the official added.
“When the Taliban took over, I was happy because I thought now we would have the opportunity to completely remove polio from Kandahar,” said one 23-year-old former female polio worker, who asked to be identified only as Farhanaz.
“I was eager to travel to remote regions if needed to administer the vaccines. But when I faced restrictions, I was heartbroken,” she said.
Farhanaz said she had been working with the local vaccination campaign since she was a teenager but was forced to resign shortly after the Taliban takeover in 2021.
“Our work was crucial and effective. Preventing us [women] from doing our job will hurt the country and our children will suffer for no fault of theirs,” she warned.
The WHO has been approached for comment.
Taliban’s curbs on women add to risk of polio outbreak, health officials warn
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The Taliban have suspended polio vaccination campaigns in Afghanistan, the U.N. said Monday. It’s a devastating setback for polio eradication, since the virus is one of the world’s most infectious and any unvaccinated groups of children where the virus is spreading could undo years of progress.
Afghanistan is one of two countries in which the spread of the potentially fatal, paralyzing disease has never been stopped. The other is Pakistan. It’s likely that the Taliban’s decision will have major repercussions for other countries in the region and beyond.
News of the suspension was relayed to U.N. agencies right before the September immunization campaign was due to start. No reason was given for the suspension, and no one from the Taliban-controlled government was immediately available for comment.
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A top official from the World Health Organization said it was aware of discussions to move away from house-to-house vaccinations and instead have immunizations in places like mosques.
The WHO has confirmed 18 polio cases in Afghanistan this year, all but two in the south of the country. That’s up from six cases in 2023.
“The Global Polio Eradication Initiative is aware of the recent policy discussions on shifting from house-to-house polio vaccination campaigns to site-to-site vaccination in parts of Afghanistan,” said Dr. Hamid Jafari from the WHO. “Partners are in the process of discussing and understanding the scope and impact of any change in current policy.”
Polio campaigns in neighboring Pakistan are regularly marred by violence. Militants target vaccination teams and police assigned to protect them, falsely claiming that the campaigns are a Western conspiracy to sterilize children.
As recently as August, the WHO reported that Afghanistan and Pakistan were continuing to implement an “intensive and synchronized campaign” focusing on improved vaccination coverage in endemic zones and an effective and timely response to detections elsewhere.
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During a June 2024 nationwide campaign, Afghanistan used a house-to-house vaccination strategy for the first time in five years, a tactic that helped to reach the majority of children targeted, the WHO said.
But southern Kandahar province, the base of Taliban supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, used site-to-site or mosque-to-mosque vaccination campaigns, which are less effective than going to people’s homes.
Kandahar continues to have a large pool of susceptible children because it is not carrying out house-to-house vaccinations, the WHO said. “The overall women’s inclusion in vaccination campaigns remains around 20% in Afghanistan, leading to inadequate access to all children in some areas,” it said.
Any setback in Afghanistan poses a risk to the program in Pakistan due to high population movement, the WHO warned last month.
Pakistani health official Anwarul Haq said the polio virus would eventually spread and continue affecting children in both countries if vaccination campaigns aren’t run regularly and in a synchronized manner.
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“Afghanistan is the only neighbor from where Afghan people in large numbers come to Pakistan and then go back,” said Haq, the coordinator at the National Emergency Operation Center for Polio Eradication. “People from other neighboring countries, like India and Iran, don’t come to Pakistan in large numbers.”
There needs to be a united effort to eliminate the disease, he told The Associated Press.
The campaign suspension is the latest obstacle in what has become a problematic global effort to stop polio. The initiative, which costs about $1 billion every year, has missed multiple deadlines to wipe out the disease and technical mistakes in the vaccination strategy set by WHO and partners have been costly.
The oral vaccine has also inadvertently seeded outbreaks in dozens of countries across Africa, Asia and the Middle East and now accounts for the majority of polio cases worldwide.
This was seen most recently in Gaza, where a baby was partially paralyzed by a mutated strain of polio first seen in the oral vaccine, marking the territory’s first case in more than 25 years.
Associated Press writers Maria Cheng in London and Munir Ahmed in Islamabad contributed to this report.
The Taliban have suspended polio vaccination campaigns in Afghanistan, the UN says
The European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) reported on Monday that 45,000 Afghans sought asylum in European countries during the first half of 2024.
The report, published on Monday, September 16, stated that by the end of July, a total of 513,000 people had applied for asylum in European countries.
The EUAA noted that while the total number of asylum applications remained steady compared to the first half of 2023, some regional variations were observed.
During this period, 71,000 Syrians made asylum requests, making them the most significant applicants in Europe.
The report also highlighted that Afghan asylum seekers predominantly applied in countries like Germany, Greece, France, Switzerland, Belgium, Italy, and others.
The number of Afghan asylum applications to European countries decreased by 18% compared to the same period in 2023.
Additionally, the report emphasized that European Union member states accepted approximately 65% of Afghan asylum applications.
However, it is worth noting that many European countries have recently tightened their immigration policies to reduce the number of illegal entries, leading to stricter regulations and fewer approvals for asylum seekers.
The continued migration of Afghans to Europe underscores the ongoing humanitarian crisis, even as the number of asylum applications has declined. The tightening of immigration policies in European countries poses new challenges for Afghan migrants seeking safety and stability in the region.
45,000 Afghans applied for Asylum in Europe in 2024: EUAA
Some analysts believe that establishing relations with Islamic countries could positively impact the engagement between the Islamic Emirate and other nations.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that diplomats representing the Islamic Emirate began their work at the Afghan Embassy in Oman this past Sunday.
Hafiz Zia Ahmad Takal, the Deputy Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that the reopening of the Islamic Emirate’s embassy in Oman is expected to play a significant role in strengthening political, economic, social, and religious ties between Kabul and Muscat.
“Since that day, the embassy has resumed its activities and services as usual. With the cooperation of the host country and the commencement of the embassy’s operations, this embassy will play a constructive role in strengthening the political, economic, social, and religious relations between Kabul and Muscat,” Zia Ahmad Takal said.
At the same time, some political analysts believe that establishing relations with Islamic countries could positively impact the engagement between the Islamic Emirate and other nations.
Salim Paigir, a political analyst, told TOLOnews: “Oman is one of the countries close to the West. This country can play a major and fundamental role in improving relations between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Western countries, especially the United States.”
Moeen Gul Samkani, another political analyst, said: “If we get closer to foreign countries, it could lead to economic reconstruction in Afghanistan and also create a bridge between the West and Afghanistan.”
According to officials of the Islamic Emirate, 38 embassies and consulates of the interim government are currently active in various countries around the world.
Operations Resume at Afghan Embassy in Oman Now Under Islamic Emirate
The World Food Programme (WFP), which addresses hunger and food security, reported that many children in Afghanistan attend school hungry.
In a report released on Monday, September 16, the WFP emphasized that school meals are crucial for learning.
WFP stated, “In #Afghanistan, many children go to school hungry.”
The program stated that fortified biscuits are distributed to more than 700,000 boys and girls in Afghanistan’s primary schools every morning.
The initiative encourages families to send their children to school by providing these meals.
According to the WFP, for many children, these biscuits are the only food they have for the entire day.
In a video shared by the WFP on their X page, Madina said, “When I come to school, I don’t eat breakfast at home, and if I don’t get the biscuit, I stay hungry.”
“We remind the world that school meals are essential for learning. For children like Madina, WFP biscuits might be all they eat all day,” the program said.
Previously, the WFP reported that nearly three million children in Afghanistan are suffering from malnutrition.
The dire humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, especially among children, highlights the critical role of food assistance programs like the WFP’s school meals. These efforts are vital for both education and survival.
As malnutrition rates continue to rise, more urgent international support is needed to prevent a worsening crisis. Without adequate intervention, Afghanistan’s future generations will continue to suffer from hunger and lack of access to education.
WFP reports many children in Afghanistan attend school hungry
Asif Ali Durrani was appointed as Pakistan’s special representative for Afghanistan by the Pakistani government in May 2023.
Pakistani media outlets have cited differences in Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan as the reason for the removal of Asif Ali Durrani from his position as the country’s special representative for Afghanistan.
According to these reports, the Pakistani military was dissatisfied with Durrani’s performance, and he had become frustrated because his policy recommendations were ignored by his superiors.
A Pakistani media report states: “Despite thirty-two years of diplomatic service, he was seen as an outsider in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs due to his unique mission, which forced him to report to the military and seek guidance from them. As a result, he felt excluded from discussions related to Afghanistan within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”
“There is a civilian government and a military government in Pakistan. When the military government makes a decision, it imposes it on the civilian government to accept it,” said Amanullah Hotaki, a political analyst.
The report also mentioned that Asif Ali Durrani opposed the mass deportation of illegal Afghan immigrants due to its adverse impact on Pakistan’s border control and believed that Pakistan should address the issue of terrorism within the country.
“The instability and insecurity problems in Pakistan are related to wrong policies, which have caused instability and insecurity in Pakistan,” said Fazl Rahman Oria, another political analyst.
Asif Ali Durrani was appointed as Pakistan’s special representative for Afghanistan by the Pakistani government in May 2023.
Pakistan Media: Durrani Removed Over Afghan Policy Differences
After 16 years of delays, a joint project to mine copper sees new momentum. But significant challenges remain.
Afghan workers use shovels to clear a mountain slope at Mes Aynak.
Three years after seizing power in Afghanistan, the cash-strapped Taliban are desperate to finally unlock the country’s bounty of copper, a crucial input in electric vehicle batteries and semiconductors. And they’re aiming to do so with the help of a key partner: China.
In the global scramble for raw materials to power clean energy technologies and advanced weapons systems, Afghanistan’s mineral wealth should position it for success—at least on paper. The country may hold as much as $1 trillion worth of valuable minerals, according to U.S. estimates from 2010, and is home to what could be the world’s second-biggest copper deposit. But decades of war, political instability, and uncertainty have long thwarted any efforts to extract those treasures, leaving the country’s resource riches untapped.
The Taliban are eager to change that. At the center of their ambitions is finally transforming Mes Aynak, a massive copper deposit that lies southeast of Kabul at a historic archaeological site and is estimated to hold some 4.4 billion metric tons of copper ore. China—which commands many of the world’s critical mineral supply chains—is pivotal to seeing that vision through.
The Taliban are “all in” on this project, said Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center and the author of FP’s South Asia Brief newsletter. “The Taliban would see this project as very much a part of this broader vision that the Taliban have for making Afghanistan a bigger part of connectivity projects spanning South and Central Asia.”
The Taliban’s interest in copper is nothing new; Afghanistan’s rulers have long sought to exploit the country’s mineral riches. The effort to transform Mes Aynak dates back to at least 2008, when the Chinese state-owned China Metallurgical Group Corp. secured a $3 billion, 30-year mining concession for the project. After 16 years of delays, the Taliban and Beijing appeared to turn back to the project this summer with a July ribbon-cutting ceremony for the construction of a road to the mine, which Chinese officials said marked a “significant step” forward.
Yet even with this apparent momentum, analysts warn that a raft of security, regulatory, legal, financial, and infrastructure challenges stand in the way of the project’s success, alongside concerns of how mining could damage historic ruins. Advancing a mining project in any country is a risky endeavor that requires years, if not decades, of investment and commitment.
“This is not easy, and investing in a mine like this requires not just a lot of money but a lot of stability,” said Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili, the founding director of the Center for Governance and Markets at the University of Pittsburgh. “China is not stupid. They do not want to waste a lot of money and scarce resources on an investment that will yield very little if [Afghanistan] blows up in civil conflict again.”
China’s involvement in the project reflects Beijing’s broader desire to ensure regional security and minimize instability that could spill over its own shared border with Afghanistan. “Their primary interest in Afghanistan is not in the mines,” Murtazashvili said. “Their primary interest is in stability [and] security, and the Taliban understand that darn well.”
Since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, experts said, China’s engagement with the Taliban has been largely driven by Beijing’s practical interest in maintaining productive ties with its neighbor and advancing its own security and political goals. “They’ve been very active in Afghan diplomacy, and they have been very pragmatic,” said Eric Olander, the editor in chief of the China-Global South Project. Beijing sees opportunity in the fact that “the United States has left and will not come back,” he added.
China was the first country to name an ambassador to the country under Taliban rule, while Chinese firms have inked oil extraction deals with the Taliban and eyed the country’s reserves of lithium, another critical mineral. Beijing has given Afghanistan more than 350 million yuan (about $49 million) worth of humanitarian assistance since the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021, according to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“The Chinese always have this mindset that development leads to stability and peace,” Olander said. “My guess is that part of the political thinking is that economic engagement from Chinese entities will pave the way for more stability and contribute to a country’s development, which then contributes to peace.”
Beyond politics, Beijing also has major commercial interests in the success of Mes Aynak specifically. “I think the Chinese are in a quite eager position to see some action about the resolution of this project,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center, adding that the project has just been “sitting there.” “The Chinese have invested, they have spent their money, but nothing is really coming through—so of course they want to resume it.”
That is good news for the Taliban, who have been searching for new revenue streams and sources of foreign investment. After they seized power, foreign aid to the country plummeted as a result of international sanctions—a change that decimated the country’s economy and pitched millions of Afghans deeper into a humanitarian crisis.
“Ever since the Taliban took over, it’s faced a severe economic crunch because for so many years, Afghanistan’s economy had been so heavily reliant on international assistance,” said Kugelman, who noted that the group has struggled to secure foreign investment, particularly from capital-rich countries.
Hungry for more cash and international legitimacy, the Taliban have actively sought out deeper economic ties with Beijing. Just last year, the group announced plans to officially join Chinese President Xi Jinping’s flagship foreign-policy program, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as well as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which emerged under the BRI.
“The Taliban is trying to prove to the world that it is not isolated,” Kugelman said. “I think that the symbolic implications of China—a very consequential global player—working with the Taliban on economic projects, that’s a pretty powerful message that I think that the Taliban would want to send out to the world.”
Still, many challenges loom. No matter how much Beijing and the Taliban expand their economic ties, any efforts to advance the Mes Aynak copper project will still come up against the threat of Islamic State-Khorasan attacks and other security concerns, along with enormous financial risks and legal and regulatory uncertainty—all of which could prove to be too difficult to overcome. Copper prices have also whipsawed in recent months, offering yet another indicator of how difficult the project will be to get off the ground.
“There’s virtually no infrastructure in Afghanistan: power, water, trains,” said Olander of the China-Global South Project. “So there may be vast reserves of lithium and copper in Afghanistan, but extracting it and getting it out and getting it to port, every step along that supply chain is risk and is cost when you have lots of other alternatives that are far less risky, more developed, and arguably way more cost-efficient.”
“We immediately went outside to see what was causing the sound,” says Nafas. “Initially, we were confused, thinking it might have been a plane. But then we realised, no, it’s a flood.”
Nafas rushed home to his own house, which fortunately was located up on a hillside, and started gathering his family. Meanwhile, several town members sought shelter atop the local mosque, including Nafas’s brothers, who used a mulberry tree to climb on to the roof and reach safety.
Others were not so lucky. “The flood was very severe, maybe up to 30 metres high,” says Nafas. “People were even dragged in from the roofs of certain buildings. The damage from the waters spread several kilometres. Some households lost up to 11 family members.”
Over two days, at least 315 people were killed in Baghlan and more than 2,000 homes destroyed. About 1,600 people were injured, and hundreds more were missing. Flash floods also wreaked havoc in other provinces across Afghanistan, with at least 50 people killed in Ghor.
Afghanistan has always been prone to natural disasters. Among low-income nations, it ranked second in the number of deaths caused by them between 1980 and 2015, according to one report. However, the frequency and extremity of disasters such as flash flooding is on the rise, and climate breakdown is not solely responsible for these changes. The country’s history of armed conflict has exacerbated the situation severely.
After flash floods in Ghor, people whose homes had been demolished moved to makeshift tents. Photograph: Mariam Amini
Dr Najibullah Sadid, an environmental researcher and water resources expert based in Germany, says it is crucial that warring parties are held more accountable as toxic artillery often gets left behind and damages the environment. Explosives can damage ecosystems, disrupt biodiversity and weaken soil structure, and can damage groundwater resources.
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According to a report by the Progressive magazine, the US dropped more than 85,000 bombs on Afghanistan between 2001 and 2021. In spots where massive ordnance air blast bombs, nicknamed “the mother of all bombs”, were dropped, such as Nangarhar province, scientists have found that plant yields halved due to the spread of toxins. Such toxins can also be carried to other regions by the wind or in water.
Mine contamination is another problem. As of 2021, only one of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces had ever (temporarily) been declared mine-free. The remaining 33 provinces still have explosive ordnance scattered across them. Despite this, funding for the country’s mine action sector has been declining, from $113m (£86m) in 2011 to $32m in 2020. The Taliban takeover in August 2021 has threatened these streams further, as many donors remain reluctant to engage with the new government, despite improved operating conditions and access to previously unreachable locations. According to the United Nations Mine Action Service about 45,000 Afghan civilians have been killed or wounded by landmines since 1989.
Sadid says the mines have a direct connection to the recent flash floods: “Landmines [and] de-mining activity disrupt soil structure. Disrupt this, and you are basically exposing the soil to erosion. The debris flow in Baghlan, or example, can be linked to war because the floods originated from a valley which is completely dry.”
Conflict-caused deforestation also worsens flash floods. In 1970, Afghanistan had 2.8m hectares (6.9m acres) of forest, covering 4.5% of the country. By 2016, this had shrunk to about 1.5%. In Nuristan, a province in eastern Afghanistan, forest cover had reduced by 53% in that time.
“Vegetation retains a lot of rainwater,” says Sadid. “When there is no forest, the land becomes exposed to landslides, and the runoff increases. That’s why we now see very extreme flash floods occurring in some parts of Afghanistan.”
For Sayed Abdul Baset, a disaster risk reduction expert and Herat resident, the issue hits close to home. The former adviser to the Afghan government says there is still an opportunity to unite and mobilise despite the problems caused by climate breakdown.
“These natural disasters are related to the activities of the land,” he says. “They show how unsafe our homes are, how weak our coping capacity and early warning systems are. We don’t have water pipes. The topography of the soil is not good. There is no flood zoning. People live in floodplains. It is a very painful picture. It is no less than a war.”
Sohila Akbari, who is based in Herat, has been leading humanitarian efforts as part of a 12-woman team for more than a decade.
With financial contributions collected from the Afghan diaspora and donors abroad, her grassroots organisation Committee Akbari regularly distributes emergency aid such as food, clothes and tents to the city’s poorest and disaster-struck.
“I first started interacting with those struggling through my work as a teacher,” says Akbari. “Slowly, I started to develop an interest in finding other ways to help. I’ve since connected with Afghans all over to try to take the work further.”
Akbari was herself a victim of the devastating series of earthquakes that hit Herat in October 2023, killing more than 2,000 people. “It was a very horrible day. We hadn’t experienced an earthquake in years. It took us all by surprise.”
She recalls hearing a horrible noise that resembled explosions. “You couldn’t even stand. The ground would go out from under you. Our house was on the third floor so it was especially bad. I remember telling the children to run, just run. Don’t worry about me. They ran. I was in the stairwell when the ceiling caved. I thought I was finished.”
They spent the next few days seeking shelter in a local school. After two days, Akbari resumed her distribution efforts to those who had been most severely affected.
“We are in the city. What else can we do if we don’t help? We will do our best. What little we can do, we will do it,” she says.
It is through locals such as Akbari, who are already familiar with the people affected, that aid can have the most successful outcome, says the longtime climate journalist Laurie Goering.
“This is the giant question in climate finance right now. How do you actually move such big amounts of money from governments and organisations to those women in Afghanistan? Taking advantage of local systems and actors, and finding intermediary groups to get more of that money to where it’s needed is really important,” Goering says.
Afghanistan is one of the countries most vulnerable in the climate crisis, but it is excluded from COP talks. Photograph: Mariam Amini
As for how much compensation warring states owe for the destruction caused in Afghanistan, Goering refers to the United Nations Development Programme’s loss and damage fund as a good place to start. This is a new fund aimed at helping impoverished nations cope with the damage caused by climate-induced natural disasters. Support will be offered in the form of grants.
“The fund is designed to help communities and countries recover from things they couldn’t have adapted to,” says Goering. “So that money would be really useful in places like Afghanistan.”
Since their rise to power in August 2021, the Taliban have remained excluded from the global stage. For Goering, this poses an extra challenge: “It’s hard to get funds if you’re excluded from international systems. There’s a lot of thinking at the moment about how to move money to very vulnerable places without going through the government.”
Despite Afghanistan being one of the countries most vulnerable to global heating, due to its arid climate, mountainous topography and reliance on agriculture, it was once again excluded from the Cop28 climate talks last year, something Goering says is problematic.
“Afghanistan doesn’t have high emissions,” she says. “This is something that’s happening globally, that everybody must work on together. Otherwise, we won’t solve the problem.”
It is a sentiment shared by Rahmani, who believes support from international institutions and existing data could go a long way: “We need to create a roadmap for each region of Afghanistan. Also, 60% of Afghans are young. They can be taught. With a very small budget, they can be provided with employment, education and training in the climate field.”
However, to truly muster the potential of younger generations, Rahmani admits better climate awareness is a crucial first step: “People think that this is God’s will, that because of our sins, these disasters happen to us and that we can’t do anything about it. Such beliefs and social behaviours have a lot of impact.”
Rahmani also hopes to see more remediation from warring parties, as well as high-emitting nations.
“These countries have a responsibility,” he says. “This is happening because of them. Places like the United States, England, Brazil and China – they keep their industry alive with fossil fuels and adapt themselves and raise their resilience. But for Afghanistan, which is currently very limited in terms of global relations, those conditions are completely closed.”
In March, the UN security council voted to extend its mission in Afghanistan for another year, but this is focused mostly on the humanitarian crisis rather than climate impacts.
There is also an ongoing parliamentary inquiry in the Netherlands on the impact of the Dutch and Nato’s 20-year intervention in Afghanistan. Similar initiatives by other countries embedded in the Nato campaign could accelerate reparations and aid.
“We had a very large climate project a while ago, backed by millions of dollars. But unfortunately, all the work is suspended. We need funds. These are very serious issues. It is very necessary for the people of the world to be united so that we can solve these problems.”
Since the Taliban takeover in 2021, large-scale conflict has reduced significantly. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, no new conflict displacement was recorded in 2023. However, by the end of that year, there were still 1.5 million people internally displaced as a result of natural disasters.
For Baghlan resident Nafas, the most pressing need for those affected is clean water. He hopes the humanitarian response offers a solution before the situation on the ground worsens.
“The tap systems have all been damaged,” he says. “All the canals are covered with mud. There is no drinking water, no water for ablution, for people’s livestock, for agriculture. Incomes have also been suspended. People are living in makeshift tents. It’s chaos. It is hot now but soon the cold season will come.”
Interviewees’ names have been changed to protect their identities.
War, deforestation, flooding: in Afghanistan they are all linked
Afghanistan Peace Campaign
