A Fragile Cease-fire Between Afghanistan and Pakistan Ends Violence, for Now

The two committed to stop attacking each other after the worst outbreak of hostilities in years. But the underlying causes remain, analysts warn.

A cease-fire announced by Afghanistan and Pakistan on Sunday has brought respite from the worst flare-up of tensions between the neighboring countries in years.

For nearly two weeks, Afghanistan and Pakistan exchanged military attacks that killed dozens of people, injured hundreds and threatened to turn into full-on conflict.

After meeting in Doha on Saturday under the mediation of Qatar and Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan vowed to de-escalate and to meet again later this month. “Terrorism from Afghanistan on Pakistan’s soil will be stopped immediately,” Pakistan’s minister of defense, Khawaja Asif, said on social media on Sunday.

“Neither country will undertake any hostile actions against the other,” Zabiullah Mujahid, the spokesman for the Afghan Taliban, wrote on X. There was no joint statement.

Despite the lull, Pakistan has a resilient Taliban problem, analysts and former diplomats say, and the quagmire remains nearly impossible to resolve without strong measures that neither side has been willing to take so far.

The underlying dispute revolves around relentless attacks in Pakistan by a terrorist group, Tehrik-i-Taliban. Pakistan complains that the Afghan Taliban government is harboring the group and making no effort to halt its activities.

The Taliban government in Afghanistan has denied hosting militant groups, even as attacks by Tehrik-i-Taliban, also known as the Pakistani Taliban or T.T.P., have skyrocketed since the Taliban reclaimed power in Afghanistan in 2021. Independent experts for the United Nations have said T.T.P. leaders get financial support from the Taliban government and that its fighters train in Afghanistan with Al Qaeda’s support.

The latest crisis began this month when two explosions rocked central Kabul and an airstrike hit a market in eastern Afghanistan, just days after 11 Pakistani soldiers died in a T.T.P. attack. Afghanistan blamed the strikes on Pakistan, a claim Pakistan neither confirmed nor denied, and the Taliban government responded with cross-border raids that killed at least 23 Pakistani soldiers.

Pakistan retaliated last Wednesday with attacks across the border and airstrikes in Kabul and Kandahar, Afghanistan’s two largest cities. The airstrikes were aimed at militant groups like the Pakistani Taliban, a Pakistani military official said on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t allowed to publicly discuss the tensions. Hours after the attacks, the two countries entered an initial 48-hour cease-fire to defuse the tensions.

But shortly after that cease-fire expired on Friday, Pakistan carried out additional airstrikes that Afghanistan said killed several cricket players. Pakistan denied killing civilians and said militants had been targeted.

“There appears to be a new normal where every militant attack on Pakistani security forces is now being met with retaliation from Pakistan in Afghanistan,” said Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. “Pakistan lost patience and concluded that enough is enough.”

Pakistan helped create the Taliban in the early 1990s and celebrated the group’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021. But relations have soured in more recent years as Pakistan’s attempts to engage with Afghanistan over the Pakistani Taliban yielded few results.

That is because the Afghan Taliban don’t see the T.T.P. as a terrorist group — rather, as an entity so closely connected to their identity that trying to eliminate or curtail it would threaten their own foundations.

The T.T.P. provided recruits to the Afghan Taliban during the 20-year war against U.S. and NATO forces. Its first leader in the 2000s was part of the Haqqani network, which carried out suicide attacks during the war and whose leader is now Afghanistan’s interior minister. The group also has sworn allegiance to Afghanistan’s leader, Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada. A Taliban crackdown on the T.T.P. would risk sending its fighters into the arms of the Islamic State, whose militants have attacked the Taliban government, analysts say.

“The Taliban could at least disarm the T.T.P., but they won’t because they are best cousins,” said Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s former special representative for Afghanistan. “Pakistan has now realized that it had a misplaced perception about the Taliban and their potential role to stabilize things in Afghanistan, and with Pakistan.”

Pakistan has not recognized the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate authority, and its government said at the height of the crisis last week that it hoped that “one day the people of Afghanistan will be free and live under a truly representative and popular government.”

Afghanistan has never recognized the border with Pakistan, arguing that the line, created by the British Empire, arbitrarily splits communities.

The first attacks in Kabul and eastern Afghanistan earlier this month occurred as Afghanistan’s foreign minister was visiting India, Pakistan’s archnemesis, to strengthen relations between the two countries.

Pakistan has accused India of backing armed groups in Afghanistan to destabilize it. In recent months it has improved relations with the Trump administration, while earlier this year Russia became the first country to recognize the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate authority. China shares a border with both Pakistan and Afghanistan and has tried to mediate, but a trilateral meeting in Kabul this summer failed to produce a joint agreement on security issues. Turkey, which maintains strong relations between both Pakistan’s government and the Taliban, has recently taken on a more prominent role in the mediation efforts.

“There is too much distrust between the two, and too many external actors now, for this to be resolved in a perennial way,” said Iftikhar Firdous, an expert on armed groups with The Khorasan Diary, a Pakistan-based research group.

Afghanistan’s and Pakistan’s populations share deep ethnic and linguistic ties (Pashto), as well as religious ones (both are predominantly Sunni). The Afghan economy, battered by multiple crises, relies heavily on Pakistan, which absorbs 40 percent of Afghan exports.

Mr. Mujahid, the spokesman for the Taliban government in Afghanistan, said shortly after the cease-fire was announced on Sunday that Afghanistan would commit to not supporting groups that carry out attacks on the Pakistani government.

But the Afghan Taliban most likely lack the willingness or the capacity to contain the Pakistani Taliban, according to Mr. Durrani and three other current or former diplomats from Afghanistan and Western nations.

“There’s a pattern of the Afghan Taliban not moving against the T.T.P. — not expelling them, not using military force against them or not compelling them to do certain things,” said Mr. Kugelman, the analyst at the Asia Pacific Foundation. “And that is because the Taliban never turns on its closest militant allies.”

Both governments are scheduled to meet again in Istanbul on Saturday to formalize an agreement.

A Fragile Cease-fire Between Afghanistan and Pakistan Ends Violence, for Now
read more

Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan spike as truce is extended

An initial 48-hour ceasefire between the two sides came into effect this week after days of bloody cross-border attacks. As it was set to expire at 13:00 GMT on Friday, both sides agreed to an extension, diplomats in Pakistan and Afghanistan said.

But just hours later, Pakistan’s military carried out strikes in southeastern Afghanistan, according to Afghan officials.

The bombings struck southeastern Paktika province and two other areas close to the Pakistan border, and included a strike on a civilian house in Khanadar village that resulted in casualties, police spokesman Mohammadullah Amini Mawia told the Associated Press. He gave no further details, including how the strikes were delivered. However, an official at Paktika provincial hospital speaking on condition of anonymity, told the AFP news agency that 10 people were killed in the attack.

The strikes in Afghanistan came hours after Pakistani officials said a suicide car bomber backed by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) attacked a compound of security forces near the border, killing several people in the area.

Pakistani police official Irfan Ali said the TTP attacked a military compound in Mir Ali, a city in North Waziristan district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Accounts of losses suffered during the attack varied. The official, quoted by the AP, said three fighters were killed in an intense shootout and did not report any troop casualties.

Reuters however quoted Pakistani security officials as saying seven Pakistani soldiers were killed in an attack by a fighter who rammed an explosive-laden vehicle into the wall of a Pakistani military camp in North Waziristan.

The anonymous officials said two other fighters were shot dead as they tried to get into the facility. At least 13 were left injured.

Pakistan’s Geo News reported that four assailants from TTP were killed in a suicide attack on a military camp in North Waziristan, with security sources saying security forces had suffered no losses.

Deadly clashes

The initial truce, imposed on Wednesday, brought a temporary halt to the deadliest clashes between the neighbours since 2021, when the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of United States and NATO forces.

The conflict, which threatens to destabilise a region where groups like ISIL (ISIS) and al-Qaeda are trying to resurface, was triggered after Islamabad demanded that Kabul rein in fighters who had stepped up attacks in Pakistan, saying they operated from havens in Afghanistan.

The Taliban denies the charge and accuses the Pakistani military of spreading misinformation about Afghanistan, provoking border tensions, and sheltering fighters to undermine its stability and sovereignty.

Media reported that Qatar has offered to host peace talks between the two countries in Doha, though neither government has confirmed the offer.

Reporting from Peshawar, Al Jazeera’s Kamal Hyder said there had been “some talk of a meeting in Doha … Friendly countries are trying to make efforts in order to ensure that the ceasefire is extended.”

He described the situation on the border as “tense”, adding that Pakistan had stated that unless the Afghan side addressed its concerns, the situation would be “precarious and can escalate at any moment”.

Afghanistan’s Taliban government said on Thursday that Pakistan had carried out two drone attacks on Kabul the previous day, just before the ceasefire came into effect. Doctors told AP that five people were killed and dozens were injured.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said on Thursday that 37 civilians were killed and 425 were wounded in Afghanistan as a result of cross-border clashes with Pakistan this week.

Pakistan has not provided figures for civilian casualties suffered on its side of the border.

On Thursday, Dawn cited Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the media wing of the military, as saying 34 “India-backed terrorists” from “Fitna-al-Khawarij” – the government’s term for TTP – had been killed during multiple operations across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during the week.

Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan spike as truce is extended
read more

Pakistan reports a new clash with Afghan forces along border

By RIAZ KHAN

Associated Press

PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP) — Clashes erupted Tuesday between Pakistani and Afghan forces in a remote northwestern border region, with state-run media in Pakistan accusing Afghan troops of opening “unprovoked fire” that was repulsed.

Pakistani forces responded, damaging Afghan tanks and military posts, according to Pakistan TV and two security officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

Tahir Ahrar, a deputy police spokesperson in Afghanistan’s Khost province, confirmed the clashes but provided no further details.

This is the second time this week that the two sides have traded fire along their long border.

According to Pakistan’s state-run media, Afghan forces and Pakistani Taliban jointly opened fire at a Pakistani post “without provocation,” prompting what the media described as a “strong response” from Pakistani troops in Kurram, a district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Security officials said Pakistan’s military also destroyed a sprawling training facility of the Pakistani Taliban.

There was no immediate comment from Pakistan’s military, which has been on high alert since Saturday, when both sides traded fire across multiple border regions, resulting in dozens of casualties on each side.

Although the clashes halted on Sunday after appeals from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, all border crossings between Pakistan and Afghanistan have remained closed.

Over the weekend, Kabul said that it targeted several Pakistani military posts and killed 58 Pakistani soldiers in retaliation for what it called repeated violations of Afghan territory and airspace. Pakistan’s military reported lower figures, saying it lost 23 soldiers and killed more than 200 “Taliban and affiliated terrorists” in retaliatory fire along the frontier.

Tensions have remained high since last week, when the Taliban government accused Pakistan of carrying out airstrikes in Kabul and in an eastern market. Pakistan has not acknowledged those allegations.

But Pakistan has previously launched strikes inside Afghanistan, saying it targets hideouts of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, which is separate from but allied to the Afghan Taliban.

Pakistan accuses Kabul of harboring the group, which has carried out numerous deadly attacks inside Pakistan. Kabul denies the charge, saying it does not allow its territory to be used against other countries.

Associated Press writer Abdul Qahar Afghan in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, contributed to this story.

 

Pakistan reports a new clash with Afghan forces along border
read more

The Turbaned Traders: The Taliban take over the urban economy

Sharif Akram

Afghanistan Analysts Network

print sharing button

After the Taliban seized power in 2021, many of the movement’s fighters and supporters migrated from their rural strongholds into Afghanistan’s urban centres to assume control of the government and the cities. This marked a major shift following two decades of insurgency, when the Taliban and many of their supporters were unable to access urban areas under the control of their adversary, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. In this report, AAN’s Sharif Akram explores how many Taliban members – particularly those with previous business experience – began establishing new businesses in the cities the movement now controlled. He argues that, in the process, the Taliban are emerging as a new business elite, inverting the economic exclusion they once faced and embracing a materialistic lifestyle they previously decried. 

A Yaqubi turban on display in a shop in Wazir Akbar Khan, Kabul, owned by a member of the Taliban

The Taliban have never been strongly associated with business, whether under their first, austere Emirate or during their insurgency years under the Republic. Throughout the two decades of the Republic era (2001-21), part-time members of the insurgency, as well as civilians living in Taliban-controlled areas did attempt to run small businesses in local bazaars and sometimes larger district centres. However, this often proved difficult and even simple civilians coming from Taliban areas could find the main commercial opportunities of urban centres were beyond their reach. Since the fall of the Republic, there has been a huge shift of power, which has opened up new commercial opportunities to many, while simultaneously closing doors to previous beneficiaries of the Republic era.

This report, which focuses on the experiences of former Taliban members and supporters, begins by looking at the background of how the Taliban entered into business during the insurgency and where and how these business activities took place. It then explores how many of them have turned to commerce following the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), bringing their small businesses from the rural areas to the cities and scaling them up. It examines what kinds of businesses they have established and how they are performing. Finally, it considers the cultural and economic implications of this shift, both for the Taliban as a movement and for the broader Afghan economy. The research is based on more than 25 in-depth conversations with business owners, who mainly moved to Kabul from rural areas or from Pakistan after the August 2021 takeover. It also draws on the author’s multiple visits and first-hand observations of these businesses, as well as informal conversations with business owners and observers throughout the past four years.

Background: a divided country

When the Taliban began their war against the United States-backed Islamic Republic in the early 2000s, they primarily operated in the rural areas of particular provinces. Over the years, they eventually built up a presence in districts across most of the country, although always in the rural areas, while the government maintained control over the urban centres. The amount of territory each side controlled remained contested throughout the conflict, though it became clear that the Taliban were steadily expanding their presence. By the end of 2019, they were effectively in control of over 70 per cent of Afghanistan’s territory.[1] However, nearly all provincial capitals and most district centres remained under the Republic’s control, almost until the end.

More importantly, throughout these two decades of insurgency, the divide between Taliban and government-controlled areas was not only territorial but also, to a considerable extent, social and economic. Communities and businesses were often split along these lines. Since each side controlled different areas and had their own supporters, the hostility extended beyond the battlefield and into daily life. People living in Taliban-controlled areas, regardless of their personal affiliations, could be labelled as Taliban or Taliban supporters and vice versa. This perception meant that crossing into territories held by the opposing side was dangerous and those doing so risked harassment, violence or arrest by the dominant force. To avoid such risks, people from both sides often tried to avoid entering the other’s territory as much as possible. Many of our interviewees from Taliban-controlled areas confirmed this. One said he “never visited Gardez [Paktia’s provincial capital] because many of our people were arrested on charges of being a Talib.”[2]

Taliban-affiliated interviewees, when, for instance, describing how the authorities of the Republic treated them, observed that arbakis (pro-government militia or Afghan Local Police) were particularly harsh. “They knew which village was under Taliban control,” one Taliban-affiliated business owner said. “So when you faced them at a checkpoint, they would ask, ‘Where are you coming from?’ If you said that village, they would arrest and beat you. They’d say, ‘Why do you shelter and feed the Taliban?’ and would only release you after paying a ransom.”

Several interviewees said the provincial government and Afghan National Army generally treated people better and did not harass those from Taliban-held areas. Even so, cases of wrongful arrest and mistreatment still occurred due to misinformation or flawed intelligence.[3] One man, now a restaurant owner said:

I was going to Ghazni city from our village and got stopped at a checkpoint near the city. They pulled me out of the car and beat me. Someone had told them I was Mullah Hamza [a Taliban commander], but I told them I wasn’t. They kept me for two days until they accepted I wasn’t Hamza.

Most Taliban families were forced to engage in some form of economic activity to survive as most of the movement’s fighters joined voluntarily and most did not receive salaries or other forms of financial help. Nearly every family had to find a source of income, so those fighters worked part-time or other members of their family stepped in.

However, the opportunities of the cities could be out of bounds for those coming from Taliban-controlled areas. They were often recognisable based on appearance or conduct, or through  intelligence, and many were arrested while visiting government-controlled areas. One interviewee, who described himself as a Taliban supporter and is now living in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), recalled:

I opened a shop in Sharana [capital city of Paktika province]. A month later, someone from the government was killed near my shop. The police came and blamed me. I was arrested and my shop was shut down, all because I was from Wazakhwah [district] and had a beard. I spent three months in prison and after paying 30,000 afghanis [roughly 450 USD], I was released. My shop was shut [during this period] and I sold it. I never tried to start a business there again.

This dynamic effectively cut off a large swathe of the population from the broader economy and the privileges and business opportunities that existed in urban centres where the government held control. As a result, they had limited access to markets where most commercial activity was concentrated and economic prospects were significantly better than elsewhere.

Yet people from Taliban areas, as well as part-time Taliban members themselves needed to support their families and, for some, contribute financially to the movement. However, their options were limited. Some managed to stay in urban areas, taking strict precautions to avoid detection and maintain a low profile. But even then, it was risky. One current employee of the Ministry of Interior, who was a part-time fighter during the Taliban’s insurgency years, told AAN:

I was working in a restaurant and studying at the university. I changed my appearance and shaved my beard. On Fridays, I’d come back to the village and go to the mujahedin [Taliban], then return to work on Saturday. For two years, I worked in Kabul without anyone knowing. But then, a spy from our area exposed me and after that, I never went back home to Chak [district of Wardak province].

One of the economic possibilities that Taliban supporters and part-time fighters opted for was migrating to the Gulf, especially to countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. A Taliban supporter from Ghazni said:

I was harassed several times during the Republic. Once, they came to our village and arrested me on charges of being a Taliban just because I had a beard. That’s when I joined the jihad. My father wasn’t happy and got me a visa to Dubai. I went there and started working as a labourer. I used to send a small share of my income to my dilgai [a military unit of Taliban]. Now, my business is successful: I have friends in the Emirate and my own license [work permit].

Even in the Gulf, there could be difficulties for people with links to the Taliban. Security services in the host countries carried out detailed checks and surveillance, often identifying such people as potential threats. Many, according to interviewees, were deported. One frequent accusation against people from Taliban-held areas was that they were collecting funds for the movement. Having Taliban-related content on their phones such as videos, taranas (unaccompanied, chant-like poetry) and speeches made things worse, as was talking about the insurgency in phone calls or chats with people back in Afghanistan. Many of those detained or deported over such charges were not Taliban members but rather people who had connections with them.

During the insurgency, as the Taliban gained prominence and took control of more territory, what began to emerge as a better alternative was establishing businesses into Taliban-controlled areas. When some local bazaars and district centres fell into Taliban hands, many members and supporters began to establish businesses there. For example, in Wardak province, when the Taliban took control of large parts of Band-e Chak around 2018 in Chak district, a local bazaar also fell under their control. One interviewee explained how he set up a tailor shop there:

I set up my shop in Band-e Chak where the Emirate was in control. During my tashkils [tour as a Taliban fighter], my younger brother looked after it and when I returned, I’d join him. It didn’t earn as much as tailors in Maidan [Maidan Shahr, Wardak’s provincial capital] made, but it was still enough to cover some household expenses.

Working in Taliban-controlled areas brought its own difficulties, including the contested nature of control over those places. Interviewees said that in some areas, control of a bazaar would shift back and forth between the Taliban and the government, creating instability and uncertainty for Taliban fighters who were also trying to run businesses. However, interviewees noted that the situation improved in the later years of the insurgency as Taliban rule in the areas they held became more stable, particularly in the south and southeast and even some central provinces, such as Logar and Wardak.

Another challenge was the local economy itself. Compared to the major marketplaces in district centres and provincial capitals, these local bazaars were only partially functional. They lacked both a strong customer base and the variety of goods and services necessary for sustainable commercial activity. Many people in these areas bought only basic items locally and still relied on larger bazaars for most of their needs due to better prices, quality and selection.

A more viable option for some was Pakistan. During the insurgency years, Pakistan offered the Taliban movement sanctuary and had long been a primary destination for Afghans – both as refugees and as economic migrants. For some of those who could not do business inside Afghanistan, Pakistan was a good solution. Many Taliban members relocated there with their families, combining business activities alongside their involvement in the movement, as this interviewee described:

Life became difficult. Our house was raided twice. I wasn’t home and was moving between Pakistan and Afghanistan on tashkils, so I decided to move my family to Pakistan as well. There, I established a bakery to survive and cover our day-to-day expenses. During my absence, my brother would take care of it and when I was there, we ran it together. I was doing both baker and mujahed.

Another interviewee shared a similar story:

I did jihad for three years in Paktika province. But when my father passed away, things changed a lot and I had to take full responsibility for the family. I couldn’t openly work in the city because of the risk of being identified and arrested. Some friends in Pakistan reached out and offered me a job and I went there. My friend had a perfume shop and I started working with him. After a year, I opened my own shop. During tashkils, I’d leave the shop with a friend, join the jihad for a few months, visit home and then return to Quetta.

The choice of what business to establish was not just about what individuals could afford or manage practically, it was also about what aligned with their social circle and if there was a customer base they could easily access. Operating in areas populated by other Afghan refugees, they mostly targeted people from their own communities, as well as Pashtuns from the Pakistani side of the Durand Line. This interviewee, for example, made and sold Afghan bread:

I had a bakery on Mall Road in Peshawar. The people living in the surrounding areas were all Pashtuns and [Afghan] refugees and we all knew each other. That made it easier as we knew their language and what their expectations were.

Those in Pakistan often relied on their social networks to operate informally, since many lacked legal status. Still, their businesses were fragile there too as at times they were arrested by the Pakistani government. There have been waves of deportations of Afghans from Pakistan over many years, both before and after the fall of the Republic, including a major campaign to evict Afghans in 2016 (Guardian). One interviewee for this report was arrested and deported to Afghanistan, leaving his business behind. He alleged that all the goods were stolen from his shop as he was unable to go back for months.

The military takeover and its consequences 

By mid-August 2021, the Taliban controlled almost the entire country. Fighters and supporters who had long operated in rural areas or across the border in Pakistan now seized the opportunity to enter the cities and urban areas that had long remained under the Republic’s control. At the same time, many city dwellers and business owners, widely regarded as connected to the Republic, chose to escape, fearing the wrath of the new rulers. Crowds rushed into Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, desperate to catch one of the evacuation flights. 

For many of those gravitating into the cities, it was a new experience, as one Taliban fighter, from Paktia province, explained:

When I was grown up, at 17, I joined the jihad. Before that, I’d never left my village. I couldn’t go anywhere. So when the fatha [victory] came, I first moved to [Gardez city in] Paktia and then to Kabul. It was the first time I saw such a big city.

Others with ties to the Taliban shared similar stories. One man told the author that a week after the Taliban takeover, he made his first visit to Kabul in more than twenty years. The last time he had been there was during the First Emirate in the 1990s. Another Taliban fighter who had been living in Pakistan said:

My friends [in the Taliban] called me after Nimruz was liberated. A few days later, other provinces also fell. My heart was with the jihad, so I decided to move to Afghanistan without telling anyone. I left early in the morning on the day Kandahar was taken by the mujahedin. For the first time, I crossed the Boldak border openly and took a taxi to Kandahar. In the past, we had to go through qachaqi [smuggling] routes. I happily joined my friends and never went back to Pakistan.

In the weeks that followed, more and more people visited the cities. Taliban fighters who were already in urban areas welcomed these rural visitors, offering them food, a place to stay and even access to government buildings, including previously sensitive sites like the previously US-controlled Bagram Airfield. Their clothing and appearance reflected the Taliban’s rural style, which made them stand out from city residents, many of whom did not wear turbans, caps or shalwar kameez.

Over time, for the former Taliban or their supporters, these visits, which started as celebrations or sightseeing, turned into something more practical – taking advantage of new economic opportunities. As the Taliban tightened their control over government institutions, many members and supporters became influential in the new order. They were given priority in state jobs, access to resources and other opportunities that had previously been out of reach.

Even being able to move freely in cities like Kabul – whose economy was bigger and stronger than most other parts of the country – was a big change for many. The new political situation, combined with better security and access to those in power, made cities more attractive than before, encouraging many rural men to start businesses in urban centres, especially in Kabul. Many others began moving their businesses from rural areas or Pakistan into Afghan cities. Some relocated shops they had already run elsewhere, while others started afresh. One Taliban-affiliated interviewee from Paktia explained:

In the past, we couldn’t do business in government areas because they’d harass us. Now that security is established, anyone can do business in all 34 provinces. We used to have a tailor shop in Janikhel bazaar, but business wasn’t good. People were poor and I made very little profit.

For many Taliban members and supporters, they wanted to find opportunities to earn a better living. They therefore opted for urban centres which have stronger markets, more customers and more business opportunities. One interviewee described the difference this way:

Across Afghanistan, Kabul is the only place where business is a little better. In rural areas, people don’t spend much and importing goods [to rural areas] is costly. That’s why Kabul and Jalalabad are better choices – the chances of making a good living are higher.

Taliban supporters who moved into cities had now suddenly become the new elite. Their loyalty to the movement gave them better access to state services. Several interviewees said that Taliban-affiliated businessmen were able to get business licenses more easily and were rarely harassed by tax officials (at least not with the same severity). This provided them with a more stable and friendly environment for doing business, as one Taliban-linked businessman explained:

I had a market [a large building that hosted almost a hundred shops]  in Kabul, but I didn’t go there much before. When I was building it, I had to pay 200,000 [USD] in bribes to Mumtaz Agha [Abdul Rabb Rasul Sayaf’s nephew] just to get permission. The municipality would come and stop our work. But with the Emirate, those problems disappeared. Now, no one dares ask for bribes and no one interferes because we’re from Zurmat and have turbans and beards. Those days are gone. After the fatha [victory], I built two more 10-storey buildings without any issues.

In some cases, men from rural areas were given long-term leases on government land to set up new businesses. One bakery owner from Wardak province was invited by a Taliban commander to open a bakery near a large military base and was promised a contract to supply bread for thousands of army soldiers. In another case, a shop inside the Wazir Akbar Khan mosque  compound in central Kabul was rented to a Taliban-affiliated businessman.

Many of the IEA’s members and supporters who had been living in Pakistan no longer saw a reason to remain there. For years, they had sought refuge across the border because of war, political repression or their affiliation with the movement. But with the fall of the Republic and the establishment of a government they were part of, the motivation to return became strong.

Meanwhile, the situation in Pakistan began to deteriorate for Afghans. In 2023, Pakistan announced that Afghan refugees must leave the country by 1 November (IRC). Increased pressure on Afghans, as well as Pakistan’s own economic decline, created an increasingly hostile environment. Businesses that had once operated freely began to face restrictions and the overall space for economic activity shrank. Returning became the logical economic choice, as one returnee explained:

We didn’t go to Pakistan for fun, but out of necessity. Now, the problems that took us there have been solved. Afghanistan is safe, there is an Islamic system and even the economy is better than Pakistan’s. Even if we earn only half of what we did there, it’s still better because here, we live in freedom under our own system.

Some individuals who initially stayed on in Pakistan after the August 2021 takeover found it increasingly difficult to remain. One interviewee described running his business for another year, but eventually choosing to relocate due to the Pakistani authorities worsening treatment of Afghans and the breakdown in relations between Pakistan and the new Afghan government. As the two sides distanced themselves from the other, Pakistan withdrew various forms of support from the IEA and harassment increased. “One year after the fatha, the [Pakistani] police would come and demand bribes. They even started arresting us for no reason,” said a tailor. “That’s when I started thinking seriously about moving back.”

The situation escalated further when the mass forced returns of Afghans, including Taliban affiliates, began in late 2023 (AAN). At that point, many had no choice but to return, as another man explained:

We had no option but to migrate to Pakistan before because there was no space for us in our own country. But now, thanks be to Allah, there’s an Islamic system and everyone’s rights are respected. People can live freely, within the boundaries of sharia. So, there was no reason to stay there anymore. The only thing we had was our shop. After some time, we sold it to a Punjabi and moved to Kabul. I opened a new shop here and now I feel thankful to be back in my homeland.

Business takeover, Taliban-style

The businesses that the Taliban and their affiliates have established in Kabul so far tend to be small to medium-sized enterprises in different sectors. Popular among them are bakeries, restaurants, tailor shops, stores selling cosmetics, fabric, perfume and similar goods. Many of these entrepreneurs were already familiar with such businesses from the time of the insurgency and their years living in Pakistan. What gave them an additional incentive was the relocation of their customer base from Pakistan to Afghanistan. One interviewee, a shoe store owner from Logar, shared his experience of moving his shop from Pakistan to Kabul:

In Peshawar, I owned a boutique. When the fatha happened, I closed my shop there and came back to Afghanistan. After some time, friends encouraged me to reopen in Kabul since my two brothers were unemployed. So, I rented a shop in Shahr-e Naw and re-decorated it. At first, there were very few customers and the shop barely covered its costs. But over time, as I focused on advertising, it improved and now it’s making a good profit.

Another interviewee, who already owned a tailor shop in Charkh bazaar of Logar province, opened a more fashionable shop in Microrayon neighbourhood of Kabul. He explained that he was already well versed in tailoring. Similarly, others started enterprises in fields where they had experience. A restaurant owner, for example, opened a restaurant serving the same menu he had successfully run for years in Pakistan.

Consumer goods offered by these Taliban-affiliated businesses exhibit some distinct differences from the Republic era. For example, in the fashion and cosmetics sector, many shops sell items that reflect the Taliban’s cultural preferences. These include styles of turbans named after prominent figures like Minister of Defence Mullah Yaqub and Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, reflecting the styles they wear (see this BBC Pashto report, which has some pictures, and this the US seller offering the Yaqubi turban – “SUPER RARE!!! Mullah Yaqoob Lungi – Afghan Lungi – mujahideen turban – Pashtoon Turban – Taliban Turban – Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” – for USD 140). Taliban-affiliated businesses also sell traditional hats such as Kandahari caps and pakols, different styles of chadar (shawls), both guldozi(machine-embroidered) and khamak (hand-embroidered), as well as popular fashion items such as ‘Skechers-style’ footwear. Other commonly sold items include tasbih (prayer beads), meswak (natural toothbrush sticks), Arabian perfumes, signet rings and other jewellery, including Al-Fajr watches that display prayer times.

In the tailoring sector, many specialise in clothes that match the distinct Taliban style. Their shalwar kameezzes are different from those worn by ordinary people – typically wider, with more embroidery and a unique cut for the shalwar that requires specialised tailoring skills. In the restaurant sector, many businesses serve South Asian dishes popular in Pakistan, such as biryani (spiced rice with meat), dudh patti (milk tea) and paratha (fried flatbread).

One characteristic of many of the new businesses emerging in Kabul is a strong Pakistani influence. This is most notable in the restaurant sector, where many ventures are nearly exact replicas of businesses that the owners once ran in Quetta and other parts of Pakistan. Just as burgers and pizzas became commonplace under the Republic, now customers can find Pakistani-style foods that were not traditionally common in Kabul’s culinary scene. Apart from the menus, they have also copied the names and interior designs of their Pakistani counterparts. Initially, their customers were mostly people who had lived in Pakistan and were familiar with these foods. However, as one restaurant owner observed, local Kabul residents have gradually started to embrace and enjoy these new flavours and according to one, “biryani is quickly becoming a favourite food for many Kabulis.”

Another example is a well-known perfume business, Al Makah Khushboo Mahal, which operates several branches in Kabul’s Wazir Akbar Khan neighbourhood. The business is originally from Pakistan and retains a typical Urdu naming style common in Pakistani fragrance stores, often involving an Arabic name. The interior design of these shops also closely mirrors the style of similar businesses in Pakistan.

Most of the interviewees expressed confidence in their businesses, with many reporting that they are not only sustainable, but expanding. One of our interviewees initially got a job in government when he moved to Kabul from Quetta, but found the salary too low:

So, I opened a tailoring shop in Chaharrahi Abdul Haq. In the beginning, only my friends and mujahedin came, but slowly I gained a reputation because I made good quality clothes thanks to my experience in Quetta. During Eids, I hired three more workers in addition to the two I already had because I couldn’t refuse orders and the existing staff wasn’t enough. We all slept only three hours a day, working day and night. Now, I make twice what I could make in the government job and I’m my own boss.

With so many Taliban members and supporters having moved to Kabul, and also being first in line for jobs, and with good contacts in the government helping their economic status, they are the core customer base of these new businesses. In many cases, there are already strong personal and business ties between owners and customers. Some had served the same customers before, in rural areas or in Pakistan, which has helped them rebuild their base in Kabul. As many people from those areas have also relocated to the city, they continue to support the businesses they trusted before. One fragrance shop owner explained:

Most of my customers are mujahedin, because they’re the ones who like the kind of perfumes I sell. We also offer turbans and caps like Yaqubi and Muttaqi, as well as chadars and tasbih. These are the things that mujahedin use the most. And there are many of them in Kabul now and if you know how to market, you can attract a lot of customers.

This steady demand has allowed some businesses to grow quickly. Another perfume shop, for instance, opened two new branches within just two years. As the shop owner put it:

Our shop in Peshawar was doing fine. But when we moved to Kabul, within three months we were making double the profit we used to. Sales were so good we had to rent the shop next door because one shop wasn’t enough for all our customers.

This boom in IEA-friendly businesses also reflects the absence of such shops in the first days of the Emirate. At that point, there was demand, but no supply. “When a mujahed wanted to buy something like a shawl or a cap, he would have to search in many shops and often wouldn’t find what he was looking for,” one fragrance shop owner said, because during the Republic, “people [in Kabul] didn’t wear those things and there were no shops selling them.” Republic-era fashion shops in cities, for example, tended to cater to more regional fashions, including shorter and more colourful shalwar kameez for women and shalwar kameez worn with blazer jackets for men, or western suits. A tailor noted that many of his customers today are senior officials, including several deputy ministers and directors. One tailor claimed that “during the previous government, officials used to order and buy their clothes from abroad.” But, he added, “the mujahedin don’t do that. They come to shops like ours instead and that’s very helpful for businessmen.”

In the restaurant sector, interviewees said that the foods they serve have gained new customers, with many Kabul dwellers welcoming the new cuisines. One restaurant owner said that “when someone first comes and tastes the dudh patti, they soon become a regular customer.” He claimed that Afghans who have lived or travelled to Pakistan are increasingly visiting their restaurants and eating South Asian foods.

While some have found their new commercial enterprises easy, for others, adjusting to the expectations of city dwellers has been difficult. Running a business in rural Afghanistan or refugee settings in Pakistan is very different from operating in cities like Kabul, where the expectations of urban customers differ. One restaurant owner explained:

I opened a Biryani restaurant. At first, the decoration, lighting and overall look of the shop wasn’t appealing, so the Kabulis didn’t come. After a year, I rented another space and invested heavily in decoration and lighting. I chose a uniform for the waiters and ran some online advertisements. Now, praise be to Allah, customers come from all over the city – even families come and eat here.

Many have also adopted modern commercial strategies, including professional advertising and an active social media presence to enlarge their customer base. Similarly, a tailor described how his way of working had to change to meet urban expectations of professionalism:

Working in Kabul is different than in the atraf [countryside] or other provinces. For example, [in a rural area], you might tell a customer to come back the next day and your clothes will be ready, but when he came back, they weren’t ready and he’d normally go off without saying anything. But in Kabul, when you tell someone their clothes will be ready at a certain time, you should deliver them or you’ll lose that customer. They’re very sensitive and demanding.

One bakery owner also reflected on his early difficulties with the main language of the capital: “During the initial days, I didn’t speak Farsi and struggled to communicate with customers who only spoke it and didn’t understand Pashto. But later, I learned Farsi and can now speak it fluently.”

Not all experiences of business since 2021 are so positive, however. The Afghan economy contracted sharply after the fall of the Republic and has for the most part remained stagnant. There have been modest signs of economic recovery, with an estimated increase in the Gross Domestic Product of 2.5 per cent in 2024, according to the World Bank’s Development Update of April 2025, growth which, however, is not keeping up with the rise in population. The same publication warned that a widening trade deficit, combined with high unemployment, poverty and food insecurity, means the overall economic situation remains fragile. AAN’s 2024 survey of the private sector, which focused on people whose businesses predated the fall of the Republic, also heard stories of plummeting sales and downsizing.

A changed attitude towards business 

What is striking among the interviews collected for this report is that former Taliban, by entering into the urban private sector, have largely adapted to an environment shaped by norms very different from those they were used to, where, for instance, business demands active engagement with worldly matters and broader society. This is a sphere from which people with a background in religious studies were previously distant, or even suspicious of.

Traditionally, the Taliban came from rural, socially conservative and economically disadvantaged backgrounds – distant from commerce, and often holding business in low regard. Even during their first rise to power in the 1990s, when they entered and lived in major Afghan cities, their ‘rural ethos’ remained largely intact. They were mullahs, madrasa students and other villagers with a conservative religious worldview who found themselves in unfamiliar urban environments and rarely engaged with city-based businesses or money-making ventures. Their focus remained on military victory and enforcing their vision of an Islamic order, with little attention paid to business and commerce. Their lifestyle was austere, grounded in simplicity and reflective of a village-based worldview with little material ambition. Later, during the insurgency, they were also known for their critique of the corruption of the Republic and its dollar economy (AAN).

What we are now witnessing is in stark contrast and appears to be a genuine transformation within the movement. Its mindset and outlook appear to be shifting at a fundamental level, moving away from their traditional roots toward a more urban-centric worldview. In this new orientation, worldly and material pursuits are embraced with a passion and intensity that mirrors many aspects of modern society.

The Taliban movement was historically dominated by mullahs, who supposedly would, in times past, reject worldly pursuits in favour of spiritual devotion, but who now appear to be developing an increasing interest in material matters.[4] IEA officials and affiliated clerics are actively seeking wealth and status, leveraging state resources and political influence to transform themselves into the new business elite.

What began as a religious movement rooted in rural values is now fully immersed not only in governing a country, but also participating in a modern trade economy. This shift towards business reflects deeper changes within the Taliban movement itself. It marks the emergence of the Taliban not only as spiritual leaders and political rulers but also  as an economic elite – engaging in business and adopting lifestyles centred around what they once dismissed as worldly possessions. They are not merely participating in the attractions and pursuits of modern life – something they traditionally despised as opposed to taqwa (piety) and their spiritual role in society.

Why did the Taliban not undergo a similar transformation during their first rise to power in the 1990s? One possible reason is that the urban economy, indeed the national economy, at the time was too weak, with cities largely in ruins following years of civil war and little infrastructure to support a consumer economy. Moreover, they were still largely engaged in fighting, with even ministers often being part-time in government and part-time at the frontline.

But there is more to it. The Taliban themselves have changed. Over the past two decades, their exposure to the outside world has grown and material wealth has become a dominant value across Afghan society, especially after the flood of foreign aid and military spending that accompanied the US intervention. While the Republic was always stricken with poverty and enormous income inequalities, the cities were full of consumer goods and ostentatious displays of wealth. The most profound impact of the US-led presence in Afghanistan may not have been military or political, but cultural: a deep transformation in social values, lifestyles and aspirations. Even the Taliban, long seen as the least materialistic and most austere among the Afghan political organisations, have not been immune to that. One might say that while the US failed to defeat the Taliban militarily, the wealth and consumer economy that the US presence brought to Kabul is now winning over the Taliban members who constitute the city’s new elite – and radically changing their lifestyles. The idealistic values they once upheld have been clearly influenced by global, capitalist ones. Unsurprisingly perhaps, while the IEA moved quickly to eradicate the rampant levels of government corruption that the Republic era was notorious for, in particular customs and tax revenues (see this 2023 Alcis report), over time, allegations of corruption among its own ranks have grown, in contrast to their first Emirate (EurasiaReview8amMedia).[5]

A new economic elite reshaping the face of cities

What is particularly striking is the rise of a new Taliban economic elite, whom these businesses both serve and enable. Just as in the Republic period – when high-end businesses in areas like Shahr-e Naw and Wazir Akbar Khan were popular with the Republic’s political elites – these same neighbourhoods are now trying to adjust to serve and attract the newly emerging Emirate elite. Back then, these areas were full of expensive restaurants, cafés, boutiques and shops offering luxury goods and services. Now, they cater to the Emirate’s rising class.

Senior Emirate officials – from ministers and deputy ministers to other high-ranking figures – now frequent these businesses. During occasions like Eid, when high-level Taliban presence in these districts increases, the Emirate imposes tight security measures to prevent any incidents. This shift is perhaps best illustrated by a shop owner who sells natural products in Kabul’s Qalah-e Fathullah. He recalled:

We lost most of our customers in the first years of the Taliban as they had mostly been officials from the Republic, foreigners or people from NGOs. But now, I’ve gained new customers from the Taliban. They’re just like the old officials. Before, two Land Cruisers would show up and men in suits and ties would come in and spend a lot of money on my products. Now, the same Land Cruisers arrive, but men in turbans buy the exact same things.

The shopkeeper observes a divide between those tempted by luxury goods and their former comrades:

It’s easy to tell the difference between a true mujahed and someone who’s fallen into the trap of worldly comfort. The second type wears a silk turban, an Al-Fajr watch [which reminds you of prayer times], Skecher shoes, a sandalwood tasbih [prayer beads] and carries an iPhone 16. But real mujahedin are still struggling to meet even their basic needs.

The desertion – or loosening – of previously-held standards of austerity by rebel movements, once they have seized power, has been constantly reported by chroniclers throughout history, as has the dichotomy in their ranks between those who remain zealously faithful to the pristine ideals and those who take advantage of the newly-acquired power. In the case of Afghanistan today, this phenomenon is certainly shaped by the gap between rural areas, where limited development means life has remained simpler and therefore closer to Taliban principles, and the major cities, where modernity and wealth have increased opportunities and economic divides. In the cities, one can see how swiftly the Taliban – once critical of their opponents for chasing wealth and privilege – are now, much like previous governments, adopting the same elite lifestyles as those they took power from. More broadly, these changes raise important questions about how, in today’s world, power, wealth and modern life can quickly reshape and influence even rigidly ideological movements like the Taliban.

Aside from these internal changes, the Taliban’s growing role in business has also changed the appearance of Kabul and other cities. Over the past 20 years, Kabul had developed into a diverse, modern city with a range of regional and international influences. Many shops, restaurants, snooker clubs and coffee shops had Western-style names, designs and menus.

Since the Taliban returned to power, that Western influence is fading. The new businesses tend to follow Gulf or Pakistani styles, where many Taliban members lived in exile. While those influences have long been present as well, particularly in architecture, one can see this clearly increasing in areas like Shahr-e Naw and Wazir Akbar Khan, where many of the new businesses use Arabic or Pakistani names and signs, like Quetta Tea and Biryani or Al-Hidaya Tailor.

Still, for the most part, these aesthetic changes have not come from intentional government intervention. The Emirate has done little to directly shape the city’s look or culture. One step they did take was setting up a commission to standardise shop signs, which introduced a rule saying all signs must be in Pashto or Dari, and banned foreign languages, particularly English. There have also been efforts to remove human imagery such as mannequins’ heads and images of women in advertising, as well as to reduce the visibility of feminine consumer goods and beauty salons (NPRAl Jazeera).

A more inclusive economy, or elite inverted? 

The appearance of a new class of businessmen is a reversal of the situation under the Republic era. To Taliban members and some rural residents, particularly Pashtuns who supported the Taliban and were unable to do business in the cities, the economy under the Islamic Emirate feels more inclusive. Interviewees argued that for two decades, they had been unable to engage in business in the cities, both because of insecurity and the Republic’s attitude toward them. They also noted that they were excluded from participation in government and that development projects were not implemented in their areas. In making these arguments they tend to overlook Taliban policies, as the group prohibited people from taking government or NGO jobs and often obstructed development initiatives, something that changed after the takeover (though there are still restrictions on NGOs, particularly for women).[6]

Interviewees tend to frame the current shift as a correction to past inequities. Now, they say, men from rural areas engage in business in urban centres, hold government positions and benefit from development projects directed toward their communities. Of course, the benefits are not accruing to people from all rural areas – rather those regions that supported the insurgency – and it is limited to men, rather than encompassing women as well. One interviewee, an IEA official, expressed this sentiment bluntly:

Everything in the last two decades was for people living in the city. They had electricity, schools, hospitals and jobs. Nothing happened in the rural areas as if they weren’t part of the country. We had no jobs and no right to do business; we were only being killed and arrested.

A Taliban supporter from Logar province also noted:

For rural people and for Afghans in general, the Americans and the Republic didn’t bring much. The money they brought went into their own pockets and those of their puppets. For ordinary people, there was nothing except bombs and raids. We didn’t even have the right to breathe, let alone benefit from what they called services and opportunities.

According to such views, the Emirate has helped level the economic field. The claim is that economic and public services are now more equitably distributed. One person explained:

Praise be to Allah, now people from all parts of the country have equal rights and access to economic opportunities. In the past, a man from sahra [rural areas] couldn’t open a shop in the city, but now he can do so without any problem. A man with a beard couldn’t easily get a job before, but now he can. This means we were excluded and weren’t given a chance to participate in economic life. But now, we’re free.

However, this narrative still raises the question of whether, in reversing past exclusions, a new set of exclusions has emerged under Emirate. While Taliban supporters deny this, arguing that there is no systematic economic favouritism, it is evident that the composition of the economic elite and indeed, the business class has shifted significantly. For many Afghans who were poor urbanites or indeed poor people in the countryside during the Republic and remain so now, the idea that the Emirate is more inclusive may seem risible.

It is difficult to fully assess the extent to which businesses in Kabul have been affected, but it is clear that certain sectors are in decline, some because of the economic contraction, others as a direct result of Emirate policies. For example, some leisure businesses such as cinemas and video arcades were banned, restrictions on private media companies, particularly bans on music and drama, forced many to close, while restrictions, including on women working, led to the closure of many NGOs, many of which were effectively small businesses (AmuTVAlJazeera).

The biggest blow to some of these enterprises comes from the IEA’s restrictive policies on women. This has raised significant barriers for women in public life, including women-owned businesses, which have suffered more since the August 2021 takeover than their male-owned counterparts (see World Bank surveys of the private sector, for example from February 2024). There have been attempts to manage the restrictions, with some women managing to run small home-based businesses (France 24). Other attempts at working around segregation and movement restrictions have failed (see for example this report from UNHCR). The IEA’s restrictions also affected businesses that relied on female customers. For example, one park owner told the author: “In the past, my park’s primary visitors were families, but since the Taliban banned women from going to parks, I have lost most of my customers and am now operating at a loss.” Women’s beauty salons have also largely been forcibly shut by the IEA (BBC). Others businesses are affected by the broader morality policy of IEA’s Ministry for Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. For instance, a hookah shop owner in Kabul, who had invested about USD 50,000 in his business, explained that IEA restrictions had caused him significant financial damage. Although apart from Kandahar and Herat, the Emirate’s official policy on hookahs is ambiguous, the shop owner said, “We’re no longer allowed to serve hookahs” (Radio Azadi, DW).

Another indirect impact comes from the departure of the former Afghan elites and Westerners who once constituted an important segment of the customer base for many businesses. For instance, the antique shops in Shahr-e Naw, once frequented by Western tourists, diplomats and NGO workers, have seen a sharp drop in business since the Taliban takeover, largely because their customer base has vanished as many foreigners and wealthy Republic officials left with the takeover.

Conclusion

The last two decades have reshaped Afghan society in profound and often unexpected ways. These shifts have extended even to the most conservative segments of the population, including the mullahs and the Taliban. In the past, religious figures often lived outside the private sector, sustaining themselves through community support, endowments and public donations. Today, however, many are increasingly integrated into the urban market economy, establishing and managing businesses across different sectors. This economic engagement is not merely a matter of livelihood but also a reflection of how social and cultural norms in Afghanistan are being renegotiated.

For the Taliban and their supporters, taking part in business brings not only income but also a sense of acceptance in society, after years of feeling marginalised in their own country. Previous Afghan governments have relied upon political-military and economic prominence, usually backed-up by some degree of external support. The IEA might have lost much of the external support, but has it added to the formula of power a virtually unquestioned religious authority. For the first time in Afghanistan’s modern history, religious authority is aligned with political control and economic activity and these spheres are becoming interconnected in Afghan society.

This represents a boost for the Taliban grasp on power, but it could also trigger a backlash. The sight of the new Taliban business elite, thriving in their new urban lives, may not endear the IEA to some of their citizens, especially at a time when so many Afghans experience acute economic hardships.

Edited by Fabrizio Foschini and Rachel Reid

References

References
1 See Shoaib Sharifi and Louise Adamou, Taliban threaten 70% of Afghanistan, BBC finds, 31 January 2018, BBC. AAN’s Kate Clark was asked to review the research before publication.
2 For a fascinating insight into how business, insurgency and the frontlines intersected, see Fazl Rahman Muzhary , Finding Business Opportunity in Conflict: Shopkeepers, Taleban and the political economy of Andar district, 2 December 2015, AAN: “[W]hen frontlines shift and military masters change – due to insurgency, uprising or rising government power – how can shopkeepers react to try to survive the situation? Indeed, how can they try to find benefit or manipulate frontlines and road closures to their advantage?”
3 See AAN’s 2014 dossier of reports, Detentions in Afghanistan; see also Open Society Foundations’ Strangers at the Door: Night Raids by International Forces Lose Afghan Hearts and Minds, February 2010.
4 For more details on the mullahs’ transformation towards business, see Sharif Akram, Living a Mullah’s Life (1): The changing role and socio-economic status of Afghanistan’s village clerics, Afghanistan Analysts Network, 2025.
5 An AAN examination of Taliban expenditure in 2023, while acknowledging a dramatic drop in areas such as customs corruption, raised concerns about the lack of clarity about the expenditure of revenue raised.
6 For a 2023 report on better economic times for those living in areas that had been ‘insurgent strongholds’, see this AAN report Finding Business Opportunity after Conflict: Shopkeepers, civil servants and farmers in Andar district by Sabawoon Samim.

The Turbaned Traders: The Taliban take over the urban economy
read more

‘An environment of terror’: deadly resurgence of Pakistan Taliban gathers pace

 South Asia correspondent, and  in Peshawar

Tariq Ahmed never lets his pistol out of his sight these days. Sitting cross-legged on a woven charpai, his face concealed with a scarf, the 26-year-old looks nervously left and right, shifting his gun in and out of his waistband.

It was here, just a few months ago in this neighbourhood bordering Pakistan’s north-western border city of Peshawar that his uncle Shehan Shah, 36, was shot dead at point-blank range by the Taliban.

Like Ahmed, his uncle was also in the police, a higher-ranking constable dedicated to his job, which supported his family of seven children. But as Shah stepped out one early Saturday morning in June, to make his way on foot to Hashtnagri police station, he was followed by masked men on a motorbike. As one drew out an AK-47 rifle, Shah spotted him and tried to wrestle it away but the accomplice raised a pistol and riddled Shah with bullets.

The attackers were never caught but it did not take long for the Pakistan Taliban, known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), to take credit for Shah’s killing, accusing him of being part of anti-Taliban operations. “Pakistani Taliban are present in every village around here now,” said Ahmed. “It seems they have a network of spies or informants who can tell them about local police who take part in raids on their camps.”

Two of Ahmed’s fellow officers from his police unit in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were also recently blown up in a targeted suicide bombing by TTP. Now he lives in a permanent state of fear. “These terror attacks on police are increasing,” said Ahmed. “We are very vigilant. We cannot go anywhere unnecessary, and I don’t tell anyone when I go out.”

The deadly TTP attacks are just some of thousands that have been taking place across the region that borders Afghanistan, driving a destabilising surge in Taliban militancy, which has swiftly become one of the greatest national security threats facing Pakistan.

On Saturday, deadly clashes erupted along the Pakistan-Afghan border after Islamabad was accused of carrying out airstrikes on Afghan soil, including the capital, Kabul, in what was believed to be an attempt to target the TTP leadership and camps.

The TTP emerged in Pakistan’s tribal-dominated border areas around 2007, amid the US-led “war on terror”. Ideologically aligned to the Afghan Taliban but a separate entity, the group eventually grew to about 30,000 militants, who occupied and controlled swathes of territory in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. After a long and brutal counter-insurgency operation, backed by the US, by 2015 Pakistan’s military had declared a “phenomenal success” in eradicating TTP militants from the mountainous border area.

Yet over the past four years – in direct correlation with the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan – attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have once again been dramatically on the rise, leading many to fear a return to the horrors of the TTP heyday in the late 2000s.

According to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (Acled), so far this year there have been more than 600 attacks by the TTP, the worst in a decade. Thousands of police, paramilitary and military personnel – many targeted while they are off duty – as well as a growing number of civilians have been killed, as part of the TTP’s attempt to destabilise the region. Over the past three months alone, the Center for Research and Security Studies in Pakistan reported a 75% rise in militant violence.

In September, the TTP claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on an army truck that killed nine soldiers, two separate attacks on the 13 September that killed 19 soldiers, the storming of the federal constabulary headquarters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that left six officers dead, and a car bomb outside a paramilitary headquarters in the region of Balochistan that killed 10 people, many of them civilians.

“It is an environment of terror here and we are living in fear,” said a mine owner from the Mohmand district in Khyber Pakthunkwa, who was forced to close down his mine last month after Taliban militants demanded he hand over money he could not afford.

Nisar Ali, a local political leader and resident of North Waziristan, one of the centres of the insurgency, said the “militants roam freely. They ride bikes and rickshaws without any fear, not far from the military camps. We see them roaming around all night and day. It’s only the movement of the security forces, not the militants, that is restricted.”

A full-blown military counter-insurgency has begun in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and in September the military carried out an airstrike on an alleged TTP camp. However, local people claimed dozens of civilians, including children, were among the dead. For many, the strike evoked traumatic memories of the years of US-led drone strikes, mass displacement and casualties amid the “war on terror” and the previous TTP crackdown.

“Drones, target killings, curfews, the militants roaming in North Waziristan is the new normal,” said Ali. “We see drones flying above our heads but most of the time they kill women, children and the elderly, even our livestock, but not the militants.”

The Pakistan government has laid the blame for the resurgence solely at the feet of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, accusing them of giving the group a safe haven. A UN report last year accused the Taliban fighters of joining the TTP and the Taliban regime of giving regular aid packages to TTP fighters and a monthly financial stipend for its leader, Noor Wali Mehsud.

“The rise in TTP attacks coincides almost perfectly with the Taliban coming to power,” said Pearl Pandya, a senior analyst for Acled. “They’ve turned a blind eye to the new TTP training camps and they released hundreds of TTP militants from prisons, many of whom have found their way back into Pakistan.

“In the face of any Pakistan military operations, TTP militants escape to their safe haven over the border, and then just as easily come back.”

Nonetheless, she also emphasised that Pakistan’s own fragmented political landscape played a role. The imprisonment of the popular former prime minister Imran Khan, who is from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, had led to a widespread loss of trust in the state in the region, that was now being exploited by the TTP to gain support and fuel recruitment. “People here fear the central government and military as much as they fear the Taliban,” said one local person in Mohmand.

The Afghan Taliban denies any involvement with the TTP. “There are no safe havens of TTP in Afghanistan,” said the Afghan Taliban foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi.

Muhammad Ali Saif, an adviser to the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, said that this time round, the TTP militants were much more technologically well-equipped – using equipment left behind by US troops when they withdrew from Afghanistan such as night-vision goggles and sniper weapons – and had carried out numerous operations using quadcopters and other drones.

“The technology and sophisticated weapons available to the militants has changed everything,” said Saif. “The difficulty is that they are living among the population and move in scattered groups at night. They don’t have big bases in Pakistan. Their bases are in Afghanistan.”

Saif was among those opposing large-scale military operations, such as airstrikes, to crush the insurgency, saying that history had proved they only fuelled mistrust of the state and sympathy for militants. Instead he advocated for better dialogue with the Afghan Taliban – efforts he says have been blocked by the central government.

While the TTP resurgence has remained mostly concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Saif warned that if they continued to mobilise, Taliban militants could push into other regions, as was seen a decade ago. “If this bad faith persists, and this fight spreads to other provinces such as Punjab and Sindh, it will be catastrophic,” he said. “We might see the Pakistani Taliban getting deadlier.”

‘An environment of terror’: deadly resurgence of Pakistan Taliban gathers pace
read more

Trade Concerns Mount as Afghanistan-Pakistan Crossings Remain Closed

The Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment has described Pakistan’s move as a violation of accepted international trade norms.

As four days have passed since the closure of key trade crossings between Afghanistan and Pakistan, concerns are growing over the serious impact on trade and economic activities between the two countries.

The Border Chamber of Commerce and Industry says the continued closure has caused significant losses to traders and calls on both governments to take urgent steps to resolve the issue.

Shahad Hussain, former head of the Border Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said: “At the moment, routes for trade are closed. Our request to both governments is to resolve this issue so that trade and cross-border movement can resume. The damage is not limited to Afghanistan, it also affects ordinary people in Pakistan.”

Meanwhile, the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment has described Pakistan’s move as a violation of accepted international trade norms and emphasized that commercial ties should not fall victim to political tensions.

Jan Aqa Naveed, spokesperson for the chamber, said: “Some international trade organizations, including the World Trade Organization (WTO), stress that no obstacles should be placed in the way of Afghanistan’s exports, imports, or transit. Unfortunately, such challenges continue to arise.”

In addition, several Afghan traders say the country should strengthen alternative trade routes through Iran, Central Asia, and China to reduce economic dependency on Pakistan.

Omid Haidari, one of the traders, said: “We urge the authorities of both countries to sign a long-term agreement to facilitate bilateral trade.”

Following recent political and military tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, major trade crossings, including Torkham, Spin Boldak, Ghulam Khan, Dand Patan, and Shahr Naw, have been shut down in recent days. So far, no specific timeline has been announced for reopening them, and hundreds of cargo trucks remain stuck on both sides of the Durand Line awaiting clearance.

Trade Concerns Mount as Afghanistan-Pakistan Crossings Remain Closed
read more

Suhail Afridi Urges Rethink of Pakistan’s Afghanistan Strategy

Speaking during a provincial assembly session, Afridi stressed the importance of maintaining good relations with Afghanistan.

Suhail Afridi, the newly appointed Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, has urged Pakistan’s central government to review its policy toward Afghanistan.

Speaking during a provincial assembly session, Afridi stressed the importance of maintaining good relations with Afghanistan.

He said: “I ask our central government and military to reconsider their policies toward Afghanistan. All policies concerning Afghanistan should be developed in consultation with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government, local representatives, citizens, and tribal elders.”

He also strongly criticized the rushed expulsion of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, saying: “Our Afghan brothers and sisters, who have lived here for more than 45 years, are now being expelled. What kind of humanity or Islam is this? These people have lived here for decades, built families, and their children were born and raised here. Now they’re being forced out? This is not how policies should be made.”

Some political analysts believe Afridi’s remarks may reflect a shift in part of Pakistan’s power structure regarding Afghanistan, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where there are deep ethnic and cultural ties with Afghans.

Nisar Ahmad Shirzai, a political analyst, said: “If Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies decide to review their policies on Afghanistan, the chances for improved relations between the two countries will increase.”

Aziz Maarij, a former diplomat, said: “Pakistani authorities have always had a dual approach to Afghanistan, on one hand, they speak of peace and friendship, while on the other, they engage in conflict, violence, and interference.”

Afridi also called the closure of border crossings near tribal areas harmful to both countries and stressed the need for their reopening.

This comes after Suhail Afridi was elected as Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on Monday during a session in Peshawar, winning a majority vote.

Suhail Afridi Urges Rethink of Pakistan’s Afghanistan Strategy
read more

Afghanistan Denies Visa for Pakistani Officials Amid Airspace Dispute

However, Kabul has repeatedly rejected their requests to visit Afghanistan.

Reliable sources within the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan have confirmed to TOLOnews that over the past three days, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Pakistan’s Defense Minister; Asim Malik, the head of intelligence; and two other generals each submitted separate requests for visas to travel to Afghanistan.

Zabihullah Mujahid, spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate, also confirms that due to violations of Afghanistan’s airspace, the request for a Pakistani delegation’s travel to Kabul was denied.

Mr. Mujahid stated: “They had asked for their high-level delegation to come to Afghanistan, but because of the airspace violations, the Emirate did not permit the trip and rejected their request.”

So far, Pakistani officials have not formally commented on the repeated visa rejections for their military and intelligence delegation by the Afghan side.

Some political analysts say that Kabul’s rejection of Pakistani officials’ visa requests indicates a shift in the Emirate’s diplomatic approach and an emphasis on the principle of mutual respect in bilateral relations. In their view, Islamabad must cease violating Afghan airspace and pursue dialogue.

Mohammad Amin Karim, a political analyst, said: “Afghanistan’s national interests demand that our country maintains healthy and constructive relations with all its neighbors, especially Pakistan. Unfortunately, ever since Pakistan’s artificial creation, this problem has remained a festering wound.”

Sayed Bilal Fatemi, another political analyst, added: “At this moment, after having violated Afghan territory without any documented reason or evidence against all international laws, their request to visit is like salt in the wound of the Afghan people.”

These developments come after Pakistan carried out air strikes last Thursday night, violating Afghanistan’s airspace. In response, on Saturday (19th of Mizan), forces of the Islamic Emirate launched a retaliatory operation along the Durand Line.

As a result of these attacks, 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed, 30 wounded, and 25 military posts came under the control of the Emirate’s forces.

Afghanistan Denies Visa for Pakistani Officials Amid Airspace Dispute
read more

Afghan earthquake triggers contradictory Taliban tactics on rescuing women

As earthquakes devastated parts of Afghanistan in late August, Taliban officials asked aid agencies to send more female health workers to assist female survivors. They also briefly barred female U.N. staffers from reaching earthquake-devastated areas.

The flurry of contradictions in the wake of the earthquake did not end there.

Amid the aftermath, as aid groups and Taliban bureaucrats were assisting those injured and left homeless by the earthquake, other Taliban officials twice suspended most internet and cellular reception throughout Afghanistan, complicating aid efforts.

The incidents highlight the contortions of the Taliban four years after seizing power of Afghanistan.

“It’s an ongoing struggle,” said a senior analyst, who requested anonymity because the Taliban has cracked down on people perceived as critical of them.

(That individual, like more than a dozen people that NPR spoke to for this story, including senior representatives of international charities, local residents and respected analysts, asked that NPR not use their names. Others requested we only use their first names. Some of the people were worried their organizations would be punished if they were even perceived as being critical of the Taliban or were concerned about denials of visas for foreign staff or losing the right to continue operations.)

That to-and-fro could be seen in the Taliban’s response to the deadly earthquake, which was most devastating in the isolated mountains of the eastern Kunar province in late August. Mud-and-stone homes clinging to steep mountainsides collapsed upon their sleeping inhabitants. From the vantage point of a helicopter, it looked like entire villages “had just been scraped off the sides of hills,” said Richard Trenchard, acting humanitarian coordinator for Afghanistan.

Where were the women?

In the first days after the earthquake struck, the Taliban shared a stream of videos of their defense forces choppering out the wounded from isolated villages. The wounded in these reels were all men, as if the Taliban had landed in villages with no female inhabitants.

A local aid worker, who goes by one name, Wahidullah, told NPR that women were airlifted out, but in compliance with the Taliban’s rules and cultural norms, they were not filmed and were segregated inside the helicopter. One video, filmed by a local aid group, accidentally showed women being rescued: They were huddled in the back of one chopper, most clad in burkhas.

And two senior aid workers said Taliban officials encouraged them to send more female workers to help women and girls impacted by the earthquake because of Afghanistan’s deeply conservative culture that limits male contact with females, and the Taliban’s own rules that demand strict gender segregation. “They were encouraging and requesting us to provide more, particularly in the case of medical support to women,” said Trenchard. Another senior aid worker told NPR, “The Taliban were asking for women doctors, they were asking for female medical teams, all female medical teams. We didn’t have the resources available to give.”

The Taliban’s request for more women workers came despite the ratcheting restrictions that the group has been imposing since they seized power four years ago. That includes preventing most women and girls from study and work.

Based on NPR’s reporting since the Taliban seized power, those restrictions appear to have been ordered by the group’s spiritual leader. Hibatullah Akhundzada lives in near-total secrecy in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar and rarely makes public appearances. Analysts point to how the restrictions have held, despite high-level pushback by other prominent clerics, and multiple attempts on the ground to sidestep the rules.

That pushback included the former deputy foreign minister Sher Abbas Stanikzai, who left Afghanistan in February after publicly criticizing the ban on girls studying beyond grade six multiple times. The Taliban’s first higher education minister turned a blind eye to women attending university — even after a decision to let girls attend high school was dramatically rescinded in March 2022 — after girls had been told they could attend, and had to be pushed out of classrooms. (By December 2022, the Taliban had stopped most women from attending university.)

After Afghan women were evicted from universities, the ministry of public health appeared to push back, creating a years-long nursing and midwifery course for Afghan women so they could help other women. “It made hardliners uncomfortable,” said the analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity, who saw it as “a workaround to our ban.” The nursing and midwifery course was junked in December last year, only months after it began, apparently on the orders of the Taliban’s supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada. The move highlighted how “the most ultraconservative bit of the movement is in control and is increasing control,” said Kate Clark, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, a prominent research group.

That increasing control has come to the detriment of women and girls. They are mostly banned from being attended to by male doctors and medics. That’s left women’s health care in the hands of a diminishing number of women.

At the time, a prominent researcher on Afghanistan, Heather Barr of Human Rights Watch, put it this way: “If you ban women from being treated by male health care professionals, and then you ban women from training to become health care professionals, the consequences are clear: Women will not have access to health care and will die as a result.”

There is no country-wide data for Afghanistan, but it appears that not only are no new women coming through the Afghan health care system, there are fewer qualified women still working. Some appear to be leaving Afghanistan. The Afghanistan Analysts Network, also reported others were leaving amid plummeting salaries and deteriorating conditions. The network also reported female health workers saying that their newer colleagues were likely to be unskilled women who came from Taliban-loyal families.

Why aid workers faced obstacles

The lack of qualified female workers became one of the many obstacles that aid workers grappled with as they sought to reach the dead and wounded hours after the earthquake devastated parts of Afghanistan on September 1.

Another obstacle hindering the rescue of women was that the Taliban prevented female U.N. workers from reaching devastated areas. In a September 11, statement, the U.N. also said Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers had prevented female U.N. staffers and contractors from entering their workplaces in the capital Kabul, the western city of Herat and the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif.

Trenchard, the acting U.N. humanitarian coordinator, said Taliban authorities did ultimately allow women working for the U.N. to assist earthquake victims in the field after negotiations, but they have not been allowed to return to their offices. Taliban authorities did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

All this meant that few female aid workers were available to treat women and girls injured by the earthquakes. Even to reach them, aid workers walked for hours on perilous roads on steep mountainsides. One female rescuer told the U.N.’s news service how they were “dodging falling rocks every time there was an aftershock.” The female health workers were expected to walk in headscarves and long loose robes. They also needed a mahram, a male guardian — a man related by blood whom a woman cannot marry, like a brother or nephew, or her own husband. That mahram has to be licensed by the Taliban.

In some cases, it appears that women who were injured in the earthquake were left unattended, until female health workers arrived. Aid workers said it wasn’t just the Taliban’s prohibitions on men treating women. Local communities also did not allow men, whether rescuers or medics, to help their female relatives. “They were very strict and did not allow us to even see the wounded,” said Omid Haqjo, a volunteer who hiked nine hours to lend a hand in an area known as the Mazar Dara Valley. He said it was a devastating sight, because “most of the injured were children and women.”

Some women and girls had not received any health care, even two weeks after the earthquake, said aid worker, Fereshteh, who had been assigned to help females shifted to tents after their homes were destroyed.

Gharshin, the 50-year-old health worker, said what frustrated her was that the conservative Afghan traditions — alongside the Taliban’s rules — meant that women could not be attended to except by other women. “Imagine,” she said, during the last earthquake, “that women’s clothes came off, or maybe their clothes were torn. They may be in a situation where it is difficult for a male rescuer to dare to pick her up. So it is natural that there should be a woman doing the rescuing.”

Why did the internet go down?

But if there was any hope that Taliban authorities might relax their prohibitions on women studying, if only to help other women, it was dashed just two weeks after the earthquake struck.

On September 15, Taliban authorities rolled out a suspension of operations of the fiber optic cable that provides affordable and fast internet to most Afghans. The move was to “prevent evil,” according to Haji Zaid, spokesperson for the northern city of Balkh. But one of the casualties was the thousands of women and girls, who were studying online after being denied physical access to school.

Access was resumed in most places, until it was shut down again for 48 hours on September 29, alongside mobile cellular reception.

During the first internet suspension, one father described to NPR how his daughters were quiet, pale and withdrawn after the internet was cut off. They were studying through an online university. He requested anonymity for the safety of his daughters. “It’s the same frustration,” he said of four years under the Taliban, “and the same darkness.”

Akbari reported from Paris. With additional reporting by Ruchi Kumar in Istanbul.

Afghan earthquake triggers contradictory Taliban tactics on rescuing women
read more

The U.S. saved him from the Taliban, but now it wants to send him back

The Washington Post
15 Oct 2025

He supported America’s war, escaped Afghanistan and started a family in the U.S. Then ICE arrested him. If he is deported, he expects the Taliban to kill him.

In his cell, the light glows all night, so he pulls a blanket over his head and burrows into the darkness. Then comes his nightmare, about the Taliban fighter whose face appears in a cloud of black smoke, beard long, hand reaching toward him. He runs and he runs until he wakes up, gasping.

Now, in the light, he worries it’s not a dream but a vision of his future in Afghanistan, where he will be tortured and killed, where his wife will starve, where his son will be forced to join the militants, where his daughter will become an old man’s fourth wife.

This is the place the U.S. government delivered him out of and the place it intends to send him back to.

“I’m so scared from Taliban,” he said in a call to his attorney after another hard night at the immigrant detention center in Virginia. “Right now, my body is shaking. My hands are shaking, if I am thinking about them.”

He and his wife had been among the tens of thousands of Afghans desperate to escape Kabul’s airport in August 2021, when a suicide bomber killed more than 180 people, including 13 U.S. service members. They heard the explosion, saw the wounded, and less than a day later, they packed into a U.S. military cargo plane bound for Qatar.

In the United States, he was granted humanitarian parole, allowing the couple to remain while his case was processed. He applied for asylum in 2022 and waited for a decision that never came. Then, in July, as President Donald Trump’s administration was dismantling programs created to assist Afghan allies, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers arrested him.

At a time when the courts are denying a record number of asylum claims, a judge will soon decide whether he should be deported. If he is returned, he expects the Taliban to be waiting for him.

The regime, he says, knows his family supported the U.S. for years. He taught teenagers how to use computers for a U.S.-based nonprofit, defied the fundamentalist interpretation of Islam and attended American University of Afghanistan, a symbol of Western ideals. His older brother risked his life as an interpreter for the U.S. Army, narrowly escaping two suicide bombings, before he moved to Virginia and earned his citizenship.

The Trump administration has called its deportation targets “the worst of the worst” — “monstrous” and “barbaric” criminals who entered the country illegally. “Animals,” Trump has said. “Not human.”

But the 200,000 Afghans who have found refuge in this country since the war’s end hold a unique place in the diaspora of American immigrants. Many braved extraordinary danger on the government’s behalf, and the overwhelming majority came here legally. Lawmakers hosted news conferences to celebrate the arriving heroes. Churches found them homes, clothes, jobs. At airports, greeters held signs in Dari that read, “Welcome to your new home.”

In a statement to The Post, Homeland Security’s assistant secretary, Tricia McLaughlin, called H “illegal” and an “unvetted alien from a high threat country.”

“The Biden administration abused its parole authority and let in unvetted illegal aliens including known suspected terrorists, gang members and criminals, and the Trump administration is correcting that.”

McLaughlin acknowledged to The Post that she described H as “illegal” only because her department revoked his parole when it arrested him. Homeland Security declined to say whether it suspected H, who is in his late 20s, of supporting terrorism or how many “known suspected terrorists” it had identified.

H, a fluent English speaker who worked as a bookkeeper in Virginia, has not been charged with any crime.

“He’s not illegal, and he’s not unvetted. He couldn’t have been any more vetted,” said his attorney, Amin Ganjalizadeh. “He followed every conceivable rule there is to follow.”

Now, on his worst nights in the detention center, he reminds himself of the promise America made to Afghans who supported its cause: “Nobody will be left behind.”

H thought that was true four years ago, he says, when he and his wife moved in with his brother in Virginia. For 12 hours a day, he drove for Uber and built furniture in a factory, and at night, he took accounting classes online. He had two children, a girl and a boy, and sang them “Wheels on the Bus” in English. His only traffic ticket, for going 37 in a 25, was dismissed by a judge. He celebrated Thanksgiving with new friends, adopted the Chicago Bears, savored the buffet at Golden Corral. He imagined taking the naturalization oath and raising his family in the suburbs. He believed in Donald Trump.

“I belong to this country,” H decided one day, so when he saw American flag stickers on his neighbors’ trucks and SUVs, he ordered one for himself.

He had just asked his wife to send him their grocery list when H noticed lights flashing in his rearview mirror. She listened over the phone as an officer asked him to confirm his name, then ordered him out of the car. That’s when he spotted the letters on the man’s chest.

“I’m being arrested by ICE,” he told his wife, and she went silent, unable to speak.

H, who’d been on his way to the bookkeeping job he started in March, said he felt the pinch of handcuffs for the first time in his life. By then, four law enforcement vehicles had pulled up, he recalled. Some of the men wore masks.“Why am I being arrested?” H asked.

It was a morning in mid-July, and the officer, he said, told him his immigration documents had expired.

That wasn’t true, H replied, and he could prove it.

“Can you let me grab my ID? It’s in the car,” he recalled pleading, but the officer refused.

H, who shared an abbreviated version of this account in a sworn affidavit, said he asked to call his lawyer, but the officers denied him that, too.

His driver’s license and employment authorization were both valid through July 31, three weeks after his arrest, The Post confirmed. Federal records show that his humanitarian parole wasn’t scheduled to expire until late August.

Homeland Security did not respond to questions about the interaction or the case. In a three-page letter to H dated 28 days after his detainment, a department official wrote that the agency had terminated his parole after it “determined that neither humanitarian reasons nor public benefit warrant your continued presence in the United States.”

“If an Afghan ally’s name is identified, then any family to that person may be persecuted,” said retired Marine Anna Lloyd, executive director at Task Force Argo, a nonprofit that has evacuated thousands of interpreters and others who served alongside the U.S. military. “The de facto leadership operating in Afghanistan doesn’t stop at killing the person of interest. It’s not unheard of for them to kill the bloodline.”

That’s why The Post is excluding the names, ages and locations of H and his family; the name of the nonprofit he served and companies he worked for in Afghanistan, most of the schools he’s attended, the firm that employed him at the time of his arrest and the detention facility where he’s being held; the specific timing of his arrival and other events; the date and site of his hearing and the judge who will decide his future.

H had hired Ganjalizadeh in March to help with his stalled asylum application, and the attorney had told him not to worry. None of his Afghan clients had ever been arrested or denied asylum.

Under Trump, though, the U.S.’s treatment of displaced Afghans has shifted dramatically. His administration canceled humanitarian parole and other protections for tens of thousands who, like H, the U.S. government brought to this country. For many more still stranded abroad, Trump officials have made resettlements nearly impossible.

Since January, ICE has targeted Afghans more aggressively than in recent years, detaining at least 133 through late July, according to figures gathered by the Deportation Data Project. How many have been sent back remains unclear.

Just this month, the U.N. Human Rights Council passed a resolution arguing that the Taliban’s system of oppression “should shock the conscience of humanity.” The council asserted that the militants have erased women and girls from public life, arbitrarily executed former officials, tortured peaceful protesters and disappeared activists.

Afghans facing deportation seldom give interviews because they fear that the Taliban will retaliate against them or their families. H and his family provided The Post rare access to their experience on the condition that the story protect their identities.
Post reporter John Woodrow Cox interviewed H for hours, witnessed lengthy calls with his attorney and accompanied his older brother, M, during a visit to the ICE detention facility where H is being held. Along with photographer Carolyn Van Houten, Cox spent hours at home with M and H’s wife, E. To verify elements of H’s account, Cox interviewed friends and former colleagues of the family as well as the founder of the nonprofit H worked for in Afghanistan. Cox also reviewed hundreds of pages of documents and photographs detailing H, E and M’s work, education and immigration histories.
This story is part of an ongoing examination into how President Donald Trump’s overhaul of the federal government is reshaping America.
The Post wants to hear from people who have been affected. You can contact us by email or Signal encrypted message.
John Woodrow Cox: john.cox@washpost.com or johnwoodrowcox.01 on Signal.

H had long admired the president, whom he refers to as “Mr. Trump.” The U.S. military’s disastrous pullout had left him and many other Afghans disillusioned with former president Joe Biden’s administration, but Trump promised strength, suggesting he would retake Bagram air base.

“I was supportive,” H recalled. “I was saying, ‘Yes, every country has their rights. If you’re a president, you should protect your country.’”

He told his brother last year that if he had a vote, he would cast it for Trump.

“Why?” his brother asked.

“He’s thinking about us,” said H, who had always seen himself as the sort of person America would welcome.

His father had taught him that Afghanistan could never be free if its people were not educated. So, to learn English, H listened to CNN for hours and studied the subtitles on episodes of “Lost.” He memorized every word to Celine Dion’s “My Heart Will Go On,” from “Titanic,” and translated them into Dari for his friends.

“He has a tremendous capacity of leadership, positive thought, independent work and the desire to channel his ideas through creative methods,” a teacher in Afghanistan wrote in a recommendation letter, calling him “among the best students I have ever taught.”

H’s parents arranged his marriage, but he insisted on one condition: The woman they chose had to be educated. In E, who is in her 20s, he found a wife with shared ideals. She aspired to become a doula.

“One day, maybe we will have a good life,” he told her. “We will have our master’s degrees. You will be a doctor. I will be a good accountant, and we will have a good life.”

The couple left nearly everything they owned in Afghanistan. He came with only two shirts, but more than a dozen diplomas, report cards and academic certificates, half from his study of English.

In Virginia, when his daughter learned to count to 10 before she turned 2, he prayed she would grow up to work for NASA as a scientist.

He wonders what his three-month detainment has done to his kids, both U.S. citizens. They sometimes refuse to eat now, and his daughter no longer sleeps through the night. When they ask where Dada is, E doesn’t know what to tell them.

The first time they visited him at the detention center, his son, a toddler, climbed atop the table and pounded his small fists into the glass that separated them.

“Open it!” he screamed. “Open it!”

Afterward, H asked his wife not to bring them back for a while.

Now, his mind returns every day to what an investigator told him just after the arrest.

“What will happen to my wife and kids?” H asked.

“Don’t worry,” he said the agent replied. If the U.S. government sent him back to Afghanistan, it would send them, too.

Have you ever been a member or have you supported the Taliban or any other terrorist group?” Ganjalizadeh asked over the phone from his office in Falls Church.

“No,” H answered from his cell in the detention center. “Never.”

Every word would matter at the asylum hearing, his attorney had explained, so they needed to prepare. Ganjalizadeh didn’t know what evidence, if any, Homeland Security might present, but he suspected prosecutors would scrutinize former friends and relatives for links to terrorism.

But any association, no matter how distant, could derail an asylum claim. U.S. statutes governing the process are so broad, Ganjalizadeh said, that if an applicant served tea a decade ago to someone affiliated with a terrorist group, it could disqualify them.

Now, on the call, H told his attorney that the FBI had showed him a photo of Islamic extremists that the investigators claimed came from a laptop he had owned in Afghanistan.

“I am 100 percent sure this is not from my laptop,” H recalled telling the agents, who he said acknowledged they’d made a mistake. “In my laptop, you will find my studies, my teachers’ lectures, my books, my pictures.”

The FBI declined to answer questions about the case, citing its policy not to confirm or deny the existence of investigations.

H’s case comes at a time when the courts, under immense pressure from the Trump administration, are denying a far higher percentage of asylum claims than they did in years past. Unlike federal judges who receive lifetime appointments meant to ensure independence, immigration judges work for the Department of Justice. Dozens have been fired since Trump took office.

Former judges, union leaders and members of Congress allege that the sweeping dismissals are a political ploy to accelerate deportations.

Immigration judges denied 76 percent of asylum claims between February and August, according to an analysis of data collected by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University. That represents a 24 percent increase over the same period last year, and the total number of denials — more than 58,000 — is the highest during any seven-month stretch in at least a quarter century.

Ganjalizadeh tried to assure H that his claim would be persuasive.

“One of the most important things about your case is something called credibility — whether the judge believes you, whether the prosecutor believes you,” the attorney said into the phone. “We already have a lot of evidence to show who you are as a person.”

H would make a compelling witness, Ganjalizadeh thought. His tone was gentle but confident. He told stories in fine detail. He could forgo an interpreter and address the court in English. And he’d been embraced by his American community.

Fifteen people sent letters to the judge on his behalf, including his boss and children’s doctor.

“I have come to know him as one of the best people I’ve ever met,” one friend wrote. “He is honest, respectful, and always willing to help others.”

“They are not only peaceful and law-abiding but also hard-working, generous people who would be an asset to our country,” wrote Brittney Rossie, who, along with her husband, Alex, has become close with H and E. “Our nation asked for help during a time of conflict, and this family answered that call. Now, we must stand with them.”

The letters helped, Ganjalizadeh told him, but most critically, H needed the judge to understand the danger he would face in Afghanistan, so H decided he would share his memories of violence.

On a summer evening in late August 2016, he was reading a cost accounting book in the library at American University of Afghanistan in Kabul when a car bomb exploded outside. It shook the building. He ran toward a back door. By morning, the Taliban had killed at least 15 people, among them seven students and a professor.

“Why do you think they would want to kill you?” the attorney asked.

“Because we were against each other. Our ideas were against each other,” he replied, explaining that the regime had distorted Islam. “My religious idea is against them. Totally different with them. My political idea.”

Homeland Security would later file a collection of exhibits in H’s case suggesting it intends to argue that Afghanistan is now safe to return to.

The evidence noted that local airports continue to function and that there had been few documented cases of abuse among Afghans returning from nearby countries, such as Pakistan and Turkey. The filing also showed that the educational nonprofit H once worked for appeared to remain open, though no one responded to messages The Post sent to its email address, and the group’s founder said she believed it had ceased operating inside the country.

One included report, published in Europe last year, never mentioned the U.S., but it suggested that the Taliban had little information on returning Afghans, who would not be persecuted simply because they had left. In passages Homeland Security did not highlight for the court, the report said that Afghans who departed after 2021 are often considered “traitors and sinners,” those deemed “Westernized” may be threatened, and anyone who learns English could face violence.

Now, in Ganjalizadeh’s office, he reached the last of his 70 questions. H would do well in court, the attorney told him, but his client acknowledged he’d begun to deteriorate. The nightmares persisted. He’d lost weight.

“I’m getting so much depression. During the night, I don’t have sleep, thinking about, thinking negative, about if I’ve been deported,” he said. “I know a woman in Afghanistan who had five kids. She couldn’t survive. She couldn’t give food to the five kids, and she decided to sell one of her kids.”

He began to weep.

“What will happen to my kids?” he asked, the pitch in his voice rising. “What will happen to my wife?”

For nine seconds, the phone went quiet.

“One day I helped U.S. against Taliban,” he said, “and today, they are sending me back to them? For what?”

His wife sometimes felt like a prisoner, too. E’s driver’s license had also expired in the weeks after her husband’s arrest, which meant she couldn’t pick up groceries or practice English with her friends at a local church, attend doula classes or take her son to the pediatrician.

“Don’t worry,” H told her. “I will come to you.”

She worried anyway.

“That I can’t study more,” she said, listing her fears. “I can’t get a job, my dream job. My daughter won’t be able to study.”

When he came home, her husband promised, they would rebuild the life they’d started. H would try to get his old job back and prepare harder for the certified public accountant exam. E would retake the courses she’d dropped, even if he had to drive her. When the kids were asleep and the work was done, they would eat popcorn on the couch and catch up on episodes of “The 100,” their favorite sci-fi show on Netflix.

E had never applied for asylum, both because she didn’t have a strong case for it and because she expected her husband’s claim, if it was granted, to extend her the same protections.

Still, even when her humanitarian parole expired, they both felt certain that ICE would not arrest her, too.

“Because of my children,” E explained on a September afternoon, one day before an email from Homeland Security arrived in her inbox.

“YOU ARE ORDERED to appear before an immigration judge…,” the letter read, “to show why you should not be removed from the United States… .”

Her head throbbed. She didn’t know what to do, so she texted her teachers. That night, two of them stopped by.

Esther Jones and Nora Twum had met E more than a year earlier at a Christian ministry in Northern Virginia where they taught English, primarily to Afghan women. She’d become a star student, eager for correction, interpreting for her classmates. Many of them attended, Jones said, so they could communicate with their kids’ doctors and teachers, but E had made clear she was preparing for a career.

In the basement at her brother-in-law’s home, where she lived, E welcomed Jones and Twum with cups of chai and a plate of pistachios and green raisins. She was too distraught to eat.

If E was taken into custody, Jones asked, who would she want to care for her children?

E didn’t understand.

“Are they going to come for me?” she asked as tears streaked her cheeks.

The women told her to make a plan for the kids, and put it in writing.

“I’m so sorry,” Twum said, keeping to herself what she really thought: “This is inhumane.”

E spoke to her husband the next morning. He thought they should consult with his attorney.

For now, she shouldn’t walk the kids to the park as often, H told her. And she shouldn’t visit him anymore.

He had been held for 70 days in an American detention center for unwanted foreigners, but he still could not accept that the people in charge of this country would deprive his children of their mother.

“Our Homeland Security, they’re human. They know you have kids. They know. They said they have kids,” he told her. “They will not do this.”

What he didn’t know was that they had done this, to other immigrants, for years. In Trump’s first term, the U.S. government separated more than 4,000 children from their parents, with no plan to reunite them. Since Trump took office a second time, ICE has stripped away hundreds more, sending many to federal shelters.

The sun had nearly set on an orange-sky Sunday evening last month, and H’s brother, M, was still waiting in a visitation line outside the detention center. A flock of starlings sang in a nearby tree. Kids drew shapes on the sidewalk with rocks.

M’s mind was on politics. The former interpreter had heard about all the immigration judges being fired, and he understood that those who remained, including the one overseeing his brother’s case, might feel pressure to deny more claims.

Years ago, when his work uniform came with a bulletproof vest, M never left home without telling his wife and mother goodbye, because he understood the risk of serving the U.S. military. Once, M said, a firefight trapped him in a car for 18 hours.

Now he recalled his naturalization ceremony.

“I oath for this country,” he said, raising his right hand as an American flag hung limp from a pole 30 feet behind him.

“Trying to cross the red light, I remember that I oath,” he continued. “I oath, not going to do anything wrong for this country.”

An hour later, M reached the front of the line. He signed in and passed through a metal detector. From the vending machines, he bought a Butterfinger, Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups and Takis Fuego chips, H’s favorite.

A staff member escorted him to the first bay, and he spotted his brother through the glass. They smiled at each other and reached for the black phones on the wall.

H had worn a white, long-sleeve shirt beneath his buttoned-up blue uniform, but M could tell his brother had lost more weight. Prayer beads H had fashioned from dried coffee grounds hung from his wrist, and on his hand was a wedding ring. To make it, he’d unscrewed the cap from a water bottle and peeled off the small plastic band, then meticulously wrapped it in a soft white wire.

M assured him that she and the kids were okay, and he asked about life inside the center.

Most of the other inmates only spoke Spanish, H said, but he had made some friends. He joined in the soccer matches outside and learned to play spades, conquian, ocho loco. When word spread that he was a bookkeeper, H said, he became the de facto estate manager for people who got out, holding onto leftover items to pass on to new arrivals. He divvied out cups, plates, $18 shirts so the guys wouldn’t have to buy new ones.

“If he saves that,” H said, “he might can call his wife two, three weeks.”

Most of the men he’d met were undocumented or had been charged with a felony, usually DUI. One, from Guatemala, had lived in the U.S. for 25 years. He’d told H that he worked a steady job, bought a home, paid his taxes, had five children.

The mass deportations reminded H of an Afghan idiom: “When the fire comes, wet and dry, everything will burn.”

H had begun to think he wasn’t the only wet tree set ablaze in a forest of immigrants, and he couldn’t help but question Trump. He’d met dozens of other inmates who, even if they’d crossed the border illegally, had built meaningful lives in the U.S. Now the government was sending many of them to places they hardly knew.

“How it can be applied for everybody?” he asked. “Somebody have property here, somebody have kids here, somebody have business here. You know, people, they don’t have nothing in their country. Everything is here.”

Near the visit’s end, M suggested that what H had endured might help him in the years to come. Whatever investigation the government had undertaken would surely resolve any doubts about his background or allegiances.

“I’m sure there is nothing to worry about.”

H nodded.

“Of course,” he said, recalling what he had told himself when he first arrived in the U.S.

“I will have my kids here,” he said. “I will have my education here. I will raise my kids here. They will go here to school, to public school. They will have American friends. They will speak English. And one day I will die, and I will go in this land. My grave will be in this land.”

He finished his bag of chips, and the brothers said goodbye. H ate beans for dinner, checked in with his wife and went to bed. Then he pulled the blanket over his head and hoped that what he had told himself was true.

Emmanuel Martinez and Monika Mathur contributed to this report.

The U.S. saved him from the Taliban, but now it wants to send him back
read more