The world’s poorest didn’t cause the climate crisis, but they bear the brunt of it

Letters

The Guardian

Wed 15 May 2024 12.17 EDT

As the global thermometer relentlessly inches upwards, revelations by top climate scientists of 2.5C warming this century (World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target, 8 May) paint a grim future of famines, conflicts and mass migrations fuelled by escalating heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms. However, this so-called semi-dystopian future is already a harsh reality for millions on the frontline of climate change who bear the brunt of a crisis they had little hand in creating.

From farmers in sub-Saharan Africa battling year-on-year crop failures to communities in Pakistan and Afghanistan confronted by unprecedented flooding every rainy season, the impacts are immediate and devastating, bringing untold human suffering. This is not a problem for 2100, but a problem now, immediately, before our eyes. My organisation has witnessed these effects first-hand, and these few examples should serve as a stark reminder to the international community that the time for meaningful change is now.

Yet the response, as highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has been woefully slow. Addressing the climate crisis in these frontline communities requires a multi-faceted approach that goes beyond short-term fixes. It requires a huge increase in funding and all forms of investment in support of locally led adaptation solutions that allow households, communities and societies to adapt their livelihoods and lifestyles to new patterns of weather and extreme weather events. It also requires partnerships with governments and companies to speed up technology transfer for a fair shift to clean energy, promoting clean and inclusive economic growth where it is most needed.

The climate emergency is not a far-off reality for even rich nations. It’s happening now. We are the proverbial frog in the boiling pot of water. It is the marginalised who will be left behind in the face of this escalating climate crisis. As the climate scientist Dipak Dasgupta rightly points out, the plight of poor people cannot be overlooked if we are to avert catastrophe for all. We cannot afford to avert our eyes while the world burns. The time for meaningful change is now, and it is incumbent upon all of us to heed the call before it’s too late.

David Nicholson
Chief climate officer, Mercy Corps

The challenge to poor countries is not that they cannot raise funds from their own people (Poorer nations must be transparent over climate spending, says Cop29 leader, 6 May), it is that the financial approach to climate change only benefits countries that can lend, namely rich countries. Poor countries (that are in reality becoming poorer) cannot absorb any more debts. Twenty sub-Saharan countries are already paying more in debt repayments than they can devote to either health or education. More lending will worsen the situation. What is needed is more investment in human capital, educating the poorest not through formal schools, but through better popular education. Above all, the rich world must change the physical and social environment of smallholders to enable them to produce enough food. Better agriculture leads to better management of the physical environment.

Benny Dembitzer
London

The world’s poorest didn’t cause the climate crisis, but they bear the brunt of it
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Norwegian Rights Society hosts Afghan activists and Taliban representatives meeting

Khaama Press

The Human Rights Research Society in Norway has announced a two-day meeting between members of Afghan civil society, including civil activists and the Taliban representatives.

The session, held in Oslo, the capital of Norway, on Tuesday, May 4, has invited Richard Bennett, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Afghanistan.

The Human Rights Research Society in Norway stated on its “X” page that this meeting will address topics such as the future of the Doha talks, humanitarian aid, increased protection opportunities for at-risk Afghans, and discussions on Richard Bennett’s future report.

Meanwhile, Richard Bennett tweeted that he was inspired by his meeting with Afghan civil activists, particularly women activists.

During this session, the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights has also addressed women’s and children’s rights.

Simultaneously, reports indicate that this meeting has faced criticism from other social activists and human rights advocates in Oslo and other European cities. They argue that Taliban representatives should not be given the opportunity to gain recognition, and they are calling for the recognition of gender apartheid in Afghanistan.

While complete details of the participating members of Afghan civil society have not yet been determined, some media outlets have reported that figures like Fatima Gilani, Kavon Kaker, Asila Wardak, Momena Yari, Haris Sighani, Abdulqayum Sajjadi, former parliament representative, former negotiator General Ansari, Engela Ahmadi, Karim Amin, senior member of the Islamic Party, and Qaraman Kakar, Faiz Mohammad Osmani, make up the Afghan civil society.

On the other hand, Najibullah Motmaen, Qazi Saeed Mashk Alam, Matiullah Mohammadi, Jafar Mahdavi, Saleh Mazari, Sayed Younus Agha, Hadi Zaker, and Fayaz Zaland represent the Taliban at this session.

Norwegian Rights Society hosts Afghan activists and Taliban representatives meeting
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UN Deploys Teams to Mitigate Flood Crisis in Afghanistan

Recently, the World Health Organization has delivered seven tons of medicine and medical equipment.

The United Nations has deployed 14 joint assessment teams to identify flood-affected areas and address the conditions of flood victims in Baghlan, Badakhshan, and Takhar.

The deputy spokesperson of the UN Secretary-General said in a press briefing that the search and rescue operations continue with the support of the Afghanistan State Ministry for Disaster Management Affairs.

The Deputy Spokesperson of the United Nations Secretary-General, Farhan Haq, stated; “We, along with our partners, are coordinating with the de facto authorities on the response — 14 joint assessment teams have been deployed and humanitarian partners have identified available emergency stocks in the region. On the health front, UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Fund), the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), the World Health Organization, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and our partners deployed 27 mobile teams in Baghlan, Badakhshan and in Takhar provinces to support the response.”

Four days have elapsed since this natural disaster struck, yet relief agencies and government departments continue to actively distribute aid to those affected by these catastrophic floods.

Recently, the World Health Organization has delivered seven tons of medicine and medical equipment. Additionally, the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) has provided food, sanitary supplies, and other essential items.

The World Food Programme, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, and the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations are among the global aid organizations that have sent emergency aid to address the situation of the flood victims in the northern provinces.

Meanwhile, Thomas West, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan, on X said that the US partners are mobilizing emergency aid, including food and water, for flood victims in Afghanistan.

Although The State Ministry for Disaster Management Affairs does not provide precise statistics on the aid provided, it states that the relevant departments of this ministry are providing emergency aid to the victims of recent floods.

“In the provinces of Badakhshan, Takhar, Baghlan, Ghor, and Herat, 8,829 homes have been completely or partially destroyed, and more than 3,000 livestock have also perished,” said Janan Saiq, spokesperson for the State Ministry for Disaster Management Affairs.

Baghlan, Badakhshan, and Takhar have seen the most damage from these recent floods, but in Baghlan, more than 80% of the casualties and significant financial losses have occurred.

UN Deploys Teams to Mitigate Flood Crisis in Afghanistan
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Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Final Report

When announcing the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in April 2021, President Joe Biden identified counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan as an enduring and critical US national security interest. This priority became even more pronounced after the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, the discovery of al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul less than a year later, and the increasing threat of the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISIS-K) from Afghanistan. However, owing to the escalating pressures of strategic competition with China and Russia, counterterrorism has significantly dropped in importance in the policy agenda. Following 9/11, the national security policy pendulum swung to an overwhelming focus on counterterrorism, but since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, it appears to have swung in the opposite direction.
In 2022, the United States Institute of Peace convened the Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan to examine the counterterrorism challenge from the region in light of the US withdrawal and growing strategic competition. The study group is a bipartisan group of experts, bringing a range of policy, scholarly, operational, and analytical experience related to terrorism, counterterrorism, and South Asia policy issues.In meetings from 2022 to 2023, the study group assessed the terrorism threat from Afghanistan and Pakistan and its bearing on US interests, as well as reflected on lessons from efforts to mitigate terrorism risks over the past 20 years. Members then examined what the components of a well-defined and sustainable counterterrorism strategy for the region could be to effectively mitigate existing threats, especially those directed against the US homeland and its allies and partners.

The study group came to the following two major conclusions on the stakes and direction of the terrorist threat and identified options for a new strategy in light of the group’s findings.

1. Rather than considering counterterrorism as an unwelcome distraction from strategic competition, policymakers could recalibrate their focus on counterterrorism to mitigate threats and shield the strategic competition agenda.

Some policymakers perceive counterterrorism efforts, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as a distraction from the intensifying strategic competition with China and Russia. However, terrorist groups in Afghanistan, and to a lesser extent in Pakistan, still harbor intentions and possess growing capabilities to target the United States and its interests. If terrorists succeeded in making those intentions a reality, it would not only result in the tragic loss of lives but also have significant adverse effects on America’s strategic competition agenda.

For one, a mass-casualty attack would exert significant pressure on policymakers to respond assertively, which would divert resources, leadership attention, and political capital from the current focus on strategic competition. The American public still expects the US government to take necessary measures to prevent terrorist attacks against Americans both at home and abroad.

Terrorist attacks against the United States and its allies and partners, particularly attacks originating from Afghanistan and Pakistan, would also undermine America’s alliances. Amid the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, Washington assured allies and partners that the United States would retain the capability to mitigate terrorist threats from Afghanistan following the military pullout. Failure to prevent attacks against the US homeland, regional interests, and allies and major partners would tarnish America’s credibility and reputation.

Additionally, terrorist attacks from Afghanistan and Pakistan against a critical partner such as India could spark dangerous regional crises. A major attack in an Indian city by a terrorist group, for example, could trigger an India-Pakistan military standoff with the risk of escalating to a nuclear exchange. Such a crisis would also significantly distract India from focusing on the challenge presented by China.

Given these stakes, the United States could consider recalibrating the focus on counterterrorism to safeguard the strategic competition agenda. Preventive investment in counterterrorism will enable a sustained focus on strategic competition.

2. Terrorist threats to US interests from Afghanistan and Pakistan are steadily rising—and Afghanistan presents growing opportunities for terrorist groups compared to the period before the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Terrorist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan are persistent, and some are gaining strength in ways that threaten US and allied interests as well as regional security. The post-US withdrawal environment in Afghanistan offers terrorist groups a range of new opportunities for regrouping, plotting, and collaborating with one another. These groups are positioned to tap into the vast pool of trained militant personnel in Afghanistan and to some extent in Pakistan. The groups also benefit from the reduced US monitoring and targeting capabilities in the two countries.

ISIS-K presents a rising threat with reach beyond the immediate region, greater than during the pre-withdrawal period. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist group has also returned as a regional security threat. While the worst-case scenario concerning al-Qaeda’s reconstitution in Afghanistan has not materialized, that group and its South Asia affiliate continue to maintain ties with and receive support from the Taliban and to call for attacks against US citizens, allies, and partners (including India) and US interests.

The Taliban continue to support terrorist groups in Afghanistan. Despite commitments to the United States and regional countries to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a terrorist haven, the Taliban’s decision to host al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul and their continued provision of sanctuary and material support to terrorist groups such as the TTP suggest that the Taliban are unlikely to distance themselves in meaningful ways from their allied terrorists. The Taliban target ISIS-K and have substantially reduced the group’s violence in the country, yet in the past two years, ISIS-K has plotted attacks against regional actors and US interests, which is particularly concerning. It is not clear if the Taliban’s crackdown can alter ISIS-K’s external attack ambitions and sufficiently weaken its capabilities. The Taliban’s educational policies, such as the expansion of madrassas in the country and a revised curriculum promoting extremist ideologies, also present a counterterrorism challenge.

Terrorist groups are also attempting to destabilize Pakistan. The TTP—a group that has killed Americans and plotted attacks against the US homeland—is imposing significant losses in Pakistan from its sanctuary in Afghanistan; and, going forward, it may become a bigger threat for Pakistan and the region. At the same time, Pakistan historically has maintained relationships with anti-India terrorist groups, although it has restrained them in recent years. As India-Pakistan tensions remain high, violence by such groups against India could trigger Indian military action against Pakistan and, in turn, risk a regional war between two nuclear-armed states.

Revitalizing the US Counterterrorism Strategy: Main Policy Options

The United States can implement a new counterterrorism strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan to address the rising terrorism threats from the region. This would not require the expansive counterterrorism posture of the past or a dilution of policymaker focus on strategic competition. The study group believes that it is possible to embed a counterterrorism approach with limited aims in the current strategic competition framework.

The group proposes the aims of deterring and, when necessary, disrupting terrorist threats in Afghanistan and Pakistan that target the United States and its interests overseas as well as its allies and major partners. The study group also proposes that Washington improve its preparedness to respond judiciously to a major terrorist attack; such preparation would help minimize the diversion of resources, leadership attention, and political capital from the focus on strategic competition. These priorities would create a sustainable end state for managing the terrorist threats from the region, in contrast to broad objectives of the past, such as the defeat and large-scale degradation of terrorist groups.

The study group’s main options for policymakers to consider include the following:

Continue to publicly pressure the Taliban to mitigate terrorist threats while maintaining communication channels for counterterrorism exchanges rather than adopting a cooperative approach with open-ended incentives or a pressure campaign that isolates the Taliban entirely.

Key steps to consider:

  • Developing a public reporting mechanism to document and disseminate the Taliban’s compliance with the counterterrorism terms outlined in the 2020 Doha agreement between the United States and the Taliban.
  • Holding a meeting of regional countries to codify the Taliban’s counterterrorism commitments to each country.
  • Adding to the federal terrorism watch list, before sanctioning (under US Executive Order 13324), Taliban leaders and personnel assisting terrorists in the country.
  • Building up dedicated diplomatic and intelligence counterterrorism channels with the Taliban to convey concerns and explore the possibility of exchanges on shared threats.

Improve military and intelligence postures to deter and disrupt terrorism threats against the United States and its interests, including those that the Taliban are unwilling or unable to contain in Afghanistan.

Key steps to consider: 

  • Making policies on military action against terrorist threats in Afghanistan—policies tightened by the Biden administration through a 2022 presidential policy memorandum that governs direct action counterterrorism operations outside areas of active hostilities—less restrictive, but not to the level of a conventional war zone or the level that was available to military commanders before the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
  • Increasing military and intelligence resources dedicated to counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but still keeping them well below the pre-withdrawal level.
    • Increasing the overseas operations and security cooperation resources of US Central Command (CENTCOM) by providing additional intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft, as well as long-endurance alternate airborne ISR capabilities; and increasing counterterrorism-specific analytical capabilities consisting of analysts, linguists, and screeners and offensive cyber capabilities for over-the-horizon operations.
    • Maintaining intelligence collection on Afghanistan and Pakistan at an appropriate priority level as part of the National Intelligence Priorities Framework and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s reporting about critical intentions and warnings on threats and operations.
    • Expanding the US Department of State’s Rewards for Justice program for Afghanistan and Pakistan by increasing the reward money for those currently listed as well as adding ISIS-K and al-Qaeda operatives currently not covered to generate leads.

Through appropriate legal authorities, leverage an enhanced military and intelligence posture to target terrorist groups while accounting for the risk of retaliatory actions and minimizing civilian harm.

Key steps to consider:

  • Targeting with lethal action in Afghanistan those groups that are planning or involved in plots against the US homeland and interests.
  • Employing shows of force through drones against Taliban leaders and personnel assisting terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda.
  • Carrying out cyber intrusions to disrupt al-Qaeda’s and ISIS-K’s propaganda and communications.
  • After targeting a Taliban-allied terrorist leader, considering declassifying intelligence—insofar as it is practical—on the presence and identity of targeted terrorists to make the case that US actions were justified; this, in turn, could exert pressure on the Taliban to distance from terrorist groups and reduce the risk of retaliation.
  • To minimize the risk of civilian harm, controlling the targeting tempo of military operations, keeping it in line with available intelligence resources; to detect civilians in the targeting process and check confirmation bias, the US Department of Defense could create well-resourced “Civilian Harm Red Teams,” or groups of analysts that question assumptions and interpretations of information with an eye toward protecting against civilian harm.
  • Making what qualifies as legal authorities for counterterrorism operations more transparent by clarifying the executive branch’s interpretation of the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force in Response to the 9/11 Attacks and Article II of the Constitution as they apply to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Improve the counterterrorism relationship with Pakistan while taking diplomatic steps to prevent a terrorism-triggered crisis in South Asia.

Key steps to consider:

  • Offering counterterrorism-specific security assistance and intelligence to Pakistan to (1) reduce the TTP’s threat as well as to obtain Pakistani assistance on top US counterterrorism concerns, (2) secure long-term airspace access for operations in Afghanistan, and (3) leverage reliable access in Pakistan in the event of a terrorist attack contingency. Such assistance should be calibrated to reduce the likelihood that Pakistan would find the assistance useful in attacking India.
  • Communicating to Pakistani leaders that if terrorists based in or backed by Pakistan carry out attacks in India, there will be serious negative repercussions for bilateral ties.
  • Offering assistance to promote peaceful coexistence among at-risk youth; to improve social cohesion by expanding the acceptance of religious, social, and political diversity; and to deradicalize underage children.

Prepare contingency plans for handling terrorist attacks in the homeland and overseas against major allies and partners such as India.

Key steps to consider:

  • Improving intelligence collection and analysis capabilities through the National Intelligence Priorities Framework for reliably attributing responsibility for terrorist attacks from Afghanistan and Pakistan.
  • Providing stepped-up travel warnings to Americans exposed to threats while traveling and living in the region.
  • Improving US leverage in Central Asia and Pakistan through assistance programs with the aim of securing emergency basing and access options for military operations.
  • Enhancing the Indian government’s confidence in the US government’s process for attributing responsibility for terrorist attacks through intelligence, investigatory exchanges, and crisis war games; and preparing US policymakers for terrorism-triggered crisis management in South Asia through regular tabletop exercises.

By implementing these measures, policymakers could better safeguard US interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan, while preserving the overall focus on strategic competition.


The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s).

PUBLICATION TYPE: Report

Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan report cover
Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Final Report
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40,000 children left homeless in Baghlan due to devastating floods: Save the Children

Khaama Press

Save the Children has expressed concern over the devastating consequences of floods in Baghlan province, stating that approximately 40,000 children in this province have lost their homes.

According to a statement released on Monday, May 13, the organization announced the launch of health clinics staffed by female and male specialists to assist the affected in Baghlan province.

Arshad Malik, the head of Save the Children, emphasized that children in Baghlan province have lost everything.

Save the Children attributes the recent floods in Baghlan province to Afghanistan’s vulnerability to climate change and notes that children are the primary victims.

According to the organization’s report, citing local authorities, at least 200 people, including children, have lost their lives in floods in Baghlan.

Earlier, the United Nations and several relief agencies called for urgent humanitarian assistance for the country’s flood victims.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Refugees and Repatriations of the Taliban administration has announced a death toll of 315 people.

40,000 children left homeless in Baghlan due to devastating floods: Save the Children
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USIP Report: Recalibrating Counterterrorism Strategy Amid US-China and India-Pakistan Concerns

In a comprehensive report released by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) on Tuesday, the Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan has highlighted the urgent need to recalibrate the US counterterrorism strategy amidst growing strategic competition with China and the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan. The report comes in the wake of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in April 2021 and the subsequent rise in terrorist threats in the region.

President Joe Biden’s announcement of the withdrawal underscored counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan as a critical national security interest. This priority became even more pronounced after the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 and the discovery of al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul. However, the escalating strategic competition with China and Russia has since overshadowed counterterrorism efforts on the policy agenda.

The USIP report, the result of extensive deliberations from 2022 to 2023, presents two major conclusions and proposes a recalibrated strategy to address the evolving counterterrorism challenges.

Recalibrating Focus on Counterterrorism

The report argues that counterterrorism should not be perceived as a distraction from strategic competition but rather as a crucial component in protecting the strategic agenda. Terrorist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan still possess the intent and growing capability to target the US and its interests. A successful terrorist attack would not only result in tragic loss of lives but also divert resources and attention from strategic competition, undermining America’s credibility and alliances.

Moreover, terrorist attacks originating from the region could spark dangerous regional crises, particularly between India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed states. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has emboldened terrorist groups, providing them with opportunities to regroup and collaborate. ISIS-K, for instance, presents a growing threat with a reach beyond the immediate region, while the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has re-emerged as a significant regional security threat.

Strategic Options for Revitalizing Counterterrorism Efforts

The USIP study group suggests several strategic options to address the rising terrorism threats without compromising the focus on strategic competition:

  1. Engaging the Taliban: The report recommends publicly pressuring the Taliban to mitigate terrorist threats while maintaining communication channels for counterterrorism exchanges. This approach includes developing a public reporting mechanism to document Taliban compliance with counterterrorism commitments and building dedicated diplomatic and intelligence channels with the Taliban.
  2. Enhancing Military and Intelligence Capabilities: To deter and disrupt terrorism threats, the report suggests increasing military and intelligence resources dedicated to counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This includes improving intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and expanding the US Department of State’s Rewards for Justice program.
  3. Legal Transparency in Counterterrorism Operations: The report emphasizes the need for greater transparency in legal authorities for counterterrorism operations, ensuring actions are justified and minimizing civilian harm. This involves targeting terrorist groups planning attacks against the US and employing cyber operations to disrupt their communications.
  4. Strengthening Counterterrorism Cooperation with Pakistan: The report calls for enhanced counterterrorism-specific security assistance and intelligence to Pakistan. This assistance aims to reduce the TTP threat, secure long-term airspace access for operations in Afghanistan, and improve the overall counterterrorism relationship with Pakistan.
  5. Preparing for Terrorist Attack Contingencies: The report highlights the importance of improving preparedness for terrorist attacks in the US homeland and overseas, especially in South Asia. This includes enhancing intelligence collection and analysis, providing travel warnings, and securing emergency military operations bases in Central Asia and Pakistan.

Conclusion

The USIP report underscores the necessity of a recalibrated counterterrorism strategy that aligns with the broader strategic competition framework. By implementing these measures, policymakers can better safeguard US interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan while maintaining a sustained focus on addressing strategic competition with China and managing regional tensions between India and Pakistan. The proposed strategy aims to balance counterterrorism efforts with the need to address broader strategic concerns, ensuring a sustainable approach to managing terrorism threats from the region.

USIP Report: Recalibrating Counterterrorism Strategy Amid US-China and India-Pakistan Concerns
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Navigating Complex Geopolitics: The Road to the Doha Meeting

At the same time, Amir Khan Muttaqi mentioned that appointing a special representative for Afghanistan is unnecessary.

Roza Otunbayeva, the head of UNAMA, met with Iranian officials about significant issues including the upcoming Doha meeting.

Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Iran’s ambassador and special envoy for Afghanistan, highlighted during his conversation with Roza Otunbayeva that the third Doha meeting indicated the United Nations’ role in establishing a fair order and promoting constructive engagement between Afghanistan and neighboring countries.

The head of the UNAMA also met with Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the foreign minister of Iran.

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Hassan Kazemi Qomi emphasized the significant role of the United Nations in maintaining peace and stability in Afghanistan.

The Iranian ambassador and special representative in Afghanistan mentioned the meeting with Roza Otunbayeva, saying: “Referring to the destructive role of American policies in the region and Washington’s illegitimate influence on UN policymaking, the necessity of the UN to recognize the realities of Afghanistan and the region, especially during the third Doha meeting, and to play its inherent role in establishing sustainable peace and creating a fair political order in Afghanistan through constructive and continuous interaction with regional countries, was emphasized.”

At the same time, Amir Khan Muttaqi, acting minister of Foreign Affairs, described the upcoming Doha meeting on Afghanistan as positive in a meeting with the Japanese ambassador in Kabul; however, he mentioned that appointing a special representative for Afghanistan is unnecessary.

Hafez Zia Ahmad Takal, deputy spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, quoting the Japanese ambassador in Kabul, said that “appointing a special envoy for Afghanistan without the agreement of the Islamic Emirate is not realistic.”

“The acting minister of Foreign Affairs has a positive view about the Doha meeting and considers appointing a special representative for Afghanistan unnecessary. He also said that instead of new mechanisms, existing bilateral mechanisms should be used to discuss all issues with the Afghan government.”

However, some political experts say that if the world and the Islamic Emirate comply with each other’s demands on certain issues, such meetings about Afghanistan will be effective.

Samim Shamsi, a political analyst, said: “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan should at least accept the legitimate demands of the Afghan people and the rightful demands of the international community, and on the other hand, the United Nations should cooperate with them on the necessities and needs that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has concerning national issues.”

Saleem Paigir, another political analyst, said: “If the United Nations intends to play an important and vital role in the upcoming Doha meeting, we might witness the formation of a strong regime in Afghanistan by the Afghan people.”

Previously, the Secretary-General of the United Nations hosted a meeting on the situation in Afghanistan with the participation of special representatives from over 25 countries in Doha on February 18th and 19th of this year. Representatives of Afghan civil society and women also attended this meeting; however, the Islamic Emirate abstained from participating in the second Doha meeting due to lack of access to the details of the meetings

Navigating Complex Geopolitics: The Road to the Doha Meeting
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After the Deluge: Personal accounts of rain and floods in Zurmat district

Sayed Asadullah Sadat

Afghanistan Analysts Network

 

The rain and snow that has fallen in recent weeks has eased the hearts of Afghan farmers and given them hope that the multi-year drought has finally ended. At the same time, heavy rain falling on dry, parched land has caused flooding in many areas of Afghanistan. Hundreds of people have been killed in recent weeks, homes and businesses have been destroyed and farmland inundated with floodwater and mud. In March, we spoke to farmers in different districts about their hopes for better weather this year. For this report, Sayed Asadullah Sadat has returned to one district, Zurmat in Paktia province, to hear how the longed-for rain has brought devastating flooding.

Our next publication will be a major report by guest author Mohammad Assem Mayar: ‘Before the Deluge: How to mitigate the risk of flooding in Afghanistan’. Floods cause almost a quarter of all casualties stemming from natural disasters in the country, and worse is set to come, with climate change predicted to bring heavier spring rains and more severe monsoons. Mayar will look at the causes of floods, how they vary across Afghanistan and what can be done to protect people, buildings and farmland both now and in the longer term. Here though, we hear some personal stories.

When we interviewed farmers across the country just before Nawruz, we encountered great relief that the three-year drought had finally ended and hopes for the year ahead. Winter had begun with two desperately dry months. Then, it had rained. Our interviewee from Zurmat said that, finally, the karez[1] in his village was flowing with water again. “Agriculture,” he said, “is renewed. People are busy sowing crops, wheat, some are even planting trees. Everyone’s busy and happy. A few days ago, I was able to sow barley. The earth is soft and moist and the barley should grow very welI.” How different is the situation just a few weeks later when we returned to the district.

When the skies open

“I haven’t seen such rain in the past 20 years,” said Jamaluddin, a farmer in Kulalgo village in Zurmat. “Since just after Eid, it’s rained continuously.” Another slightly older farmer, Sultan Shah from Sar-e Char village, said he last saw “rain like this” 30 years ago. It rained continuously after Eid (which fell on 12 April), but then it stopped raining. If a cloud passed over the mountains, people became anxious, fearing the consequences could be disastrous if more rain fell. More rain did fall and flooding finally hit Zurmat overnight on 14/15 April.

People who live in Zurmat know that water levels rise quickly and can lead to erratic flash floods that sweep through the landscape, destroying homes, devastating agricultural fields, killing livestock and often taking lives. So when it starts raining heavily, as it did in April, they spring into action to avert the worst of the damage. They grab their shovels, pick axes and whatever tools they have and start digging trenches around their properties to try to ensure their families and homes stay safe and dry. They place sandbags around their houses and rocks to act as barriers and stem the force of the water. Then they wait, hoping the capricious waters spare their villages – not only their houses but also the fields that sustain them. They stay up all night and keep vigil so that they are not caught by surprise if the floods do come.

The district, located 35 kilometres southwest of Gardez city and bordering Paktika, Logar and Ghazni provinces, is largely flat and most residents are engaged in agriculture and animal husbandry. The waters of several rivers pass through Zurmat – from Kotal-e Tirah and the mountains around Gardez city on to Band-e Sardeh, a lake in the eastern part of Andar district in Ghazni province. But after three years of drought, dry riverbeds have been compromised through neglect or human activity, meaning there were insufficient clear channels for the water to flow through easily when the seasonal rivers came back to life.

Farmers in Zurmat are now dealing with the after-effects of flooding. The recent floods have destroyed dozens of homes in multiple villages, along with shops, roads and bridges. Most of the agricultural land, gardens and karezes were damaged. Hundreds of jeribs of land where wheat had been sown were left inundated: standing water weakens the wheat, ruining yields. Even worse, the floods deposited a thick layer of mud and stones onto some fields. Villagers who had planted rain-fed wheat in March lost this year’s crop and will have to cut their losses and look to other crops, tomato, onion and potato, which they can plant later in the season after the floods have receded and their fields are no longer waterlogged.

For farmers, who rely on the land for their livelihoods, recovering from floods is costly, time-consuming and labour-intensive. After the water recedes, they will have to manually clear the debris from their fields and hire tractors, which cost 3,000 afghanis (USD 42) per hour, to help clear the worst of the debris. They will have to dip into their savings, if they have any, borrow money from neighbours or ask family members living abroad to send funds to help get the fields ready for planting. In Afghanistan’s tight-knit rural communities, neighbour helps neighbour, and a farmer can always count on help to clear his land, but those who lack the financial wherewithal to rent heavy equipment are unlikely to clear their fields in time to have any sort of harvest this year. They will have to wait until next year.

One farmer, Sultan Shah from Sar-e Char village, described the destruction of his crops, especially wheat, when the river flooded the fields – although he was facing more immediate problems when the author spoke to him just after the flooding:

In the last two or three days, it’s become difficult to leave the house at all. The water has surrounded us and everyone is stuck at home, afraid to leave. We’re so scared. We stay awake and guard the house at night because we think if the water gets into our home, it’ll be damaged. We walk around the house with shovels and pickaxes so that if water threatens the house, we can make a barrier against it. All the small roads which connect our village to neighbouring villages were destroyed. Someone from our tribe living in another village died, but we couldn’t get to his funeral because the roads were all destroyed and it was raining heavily. Water was everywhere.

The recent flood destroyed the main road that goes from Zurmat to the provincial capital Gardez and in the Zaw area, it had damaged a large bridge. People waited for hours for the floodwaters to subside so that they could get to Gardez – or get home from Gardez. People trying to get sick relatives urgently to the hospital there were especially distressed by the sheer impossibility of travel.

A mixed blessing

Despite the flooding, most people were left in two minds about the rain. It is true that it caused flash floods that destroyed their crops and damaged homes and infrastructure, but it has also ended the devastating three-year drought. Jamaluddin, with around 30 jeribs (6 hectares) of land, mostly rain-fed and left uncultivated for several years, conveyed this attitude.

When it snowed and rained in the final part of winter, I sowed [wheat] on eight jeribs [1.6 hectares] of my rain-fed land. I said to myself: Inshallah, rain will water my land this year. But the flood came and my land was damaged. The floodwaters brought mud and stones onto my land. I can’t use it now. I was so upset. I’d expended a great deal of effort on the land. But … now, I’m generally happy because the drought is over.

The drought had hit him hard. Last year, he grew onions, which need a lot of water. However, the harvest failed for lack of rain, leaving him with a huge loss. He said the karezes in their area had been dry for several years and of his two solar-powered tube wells, one dried up last year and the water level in the second dropped so much there was not enough to water the fields. Even the well inside the house had dried up. “You know,” he said, “for a farmer, his land is everything and when there’s no water, the land is useless.” However, following the rain, all his wells had enough water. People reckoned the level has risen by three metres.

He worried that, although water from the recent rain had seeped into the ground and fed the underground aquifers, repeated droughts mean the water may not have penetrated the ground as well as it should have done and the rain that has fallen may not yet be sufficient to replenish the aquifers.

Meanwhile, another farmer in Kulago village, Mir Afghan, surveying the damage from the floods and worried that worse might be to come:

Roads, canals and karezes that irrigated agricultural lands have been destroyed. Farmers will face many problems this year because repairing these roads and canals costs a lot. Even in some areas, the floods have damaged the retaining walls, which were built during the Republic by NGOs at huge expense. This really worried people: they were built to protect our homes and villages, but now they’ve been damaged. The village is in danger.

Mir Afghan said the floods had destroyed some farms and caused a lot of financial loss, but overall, the damage was less than in some other provinces and it was also far less than when heavy rain comes in the summer: “In the months of Jawza and Asad [third week of June to third week of August], rain is very dangerous because the soil doesn’t absorb it during those months. If it rains a little, it turns into a flood that flows everywhere and can be very dangerous.”

Hoping for rain, planning for floods

Meanwhile, as local communities survey the damage done by the most recent floods, they balance relief that the drought has ended against the fears that more rain later in the summer could devastate their lives. They gather in mosques to discuss how to mitigate the worst of it. They pool their resources to rebuild fallen retaining walls and rehabilitate canals.

With one eye on the sky and another on their fields, they get on with the business of clearing their land and sowing seeds, hoping, always, that the harvests will be plentiful, and that their homes, fields and families will be spared more flooding.

Edited by Kate Clark and Roxanna Shapour


[1] Karezes are used in much of Afghanistan to bring irrigation water to cropland. A series of well-like vertical shafts, connected by sloping tunnels, tap into subterranean water to efficiently deliver large quantities of water to the surface by gravity, without need for pumping. More on this UNESCO website on how karezes “allow water to be transported over long distances in hot dry climates without loss of much of the water to evaporation.”

[2] For up-to-date reports on the floods nationwide, see reports from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), for example here from 17 April.

 

After the Deluge: Personal accounts of rain and floods in Zurmat district
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Families still looking for missing loved ones after devastating Afghanistan floods killed scores

BY RAHIM FAIEZ

Associated Press

Updated 12:52 PM EDT, May 13, 2024

ISLAMABAD (AP) — When he heard that devastating floods hit his village in northern Afghanistan last week, farmer Abdul Ghani rushed home from neighboring Kunduz province where he was visiting relatives. When he got home, he found out that his wife and three children had perished in the deluge.

Two of his sons survived but another son, who is 11, is still missing. “I couldn’t even find the road to my village,” he said, describing how he turned back and went another way to reach his district of Nahrin in Baghlan province.

Across Baghlan, others like Ghani and survivors of the disaster were still searching for their missing loved ones and burying their dead on Monday.

“Roads, villages and lands were all washed away,” Ghani said. His wife, his 7-year-old and 9-year-old daughters and a 4-year-old son died.

“My life has turned into a disaster,” he said, speaking to The Associated Press over the phone.

Survivors have been left with no home, no land, and no source of livelihood, the World Food Organization said. Most of Baghlan is “inaccessible by trucks,” said WFP, adding that it is resorting to every alternative it can think of to get food to the survivors.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has expressed condolences to the victims, said a statement on Sunday, adding that the world body and aid agencies are working with the Taliban-run government to help.

“The United Nations and its partners in Afghanistan are coordinating with the de facto authorities to swiftly assess needs and provide emergency assistance,” according to the statement.

The dead include 51 children, according to UNICEF, one of several international aid groups that are sending relief teams, medicines, blankets and other supplies. The World Health Organization said it delivered 7 tons of medicines and emergency kits to the stricken areas.

The latest disaster came on the heels of a previous one, when at least 70 people died in April from heavy rains and flash floods in the country. The waters also destroyed about 2,000 homes, three mosques and four schools in western Farah and Herat, and southern Zabul and Kandahar provinces.

 

Families still looking for missing loved ones after devastating Afghanistan floods killed scores
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Flash Flooding in Afghanistan Kills at Least 300, With More Missing

Safiullah Padshah, Christina Goldbaum and 

Safiullah Padshah reported from Kabul, Afghanistan, Christina Goldbaum from London, and Najim Rahim from San Francisco.

May 12, 2024

Heavy seasonal rains have set off floods in the northern province of Baghlan and in at least three other provinces.

Heavy seasonal rains have set off flash floods across Afghanistan, killing more than 300 people in one province and destroying thousands of homes, according to United Nations officials. The floods have displaced thousands of others and engulfed entire villages, Afghan officials say.

The flood’s toll in the northern province of Baghlan, which appeared to have suffered the worst devastation, was likely to rise, said Hedayatullah Hamdard, the director of the provincial disaster management department. Most of the dead there were women and children, he said. At least 2,000 homes have been destroyed, according to the U.N. World Food Program.

Flooding began around 4 p.m. Friday and continued into the evening in Baghlan Province. Abdul Aziz Ayyar, a tribal elder, was in his home in the Baghlan-e-Markazi District when rain began pouring down. He stepped outside and saw a torrent of water rushing down a nearby mountain toward his village.

He grabbed his two children and wife and began sprinting to a different nearby mountain, shouting as he ran to warn the other villagers, he said. His 30-year-old niece was running behind him, carrying her 1-year-old and 3-year-old daughters. At one point, his niece tried to grab his hand to steady her and her children, he said, but before he could grab her, floodwater crashed over them, carrying them away.

“We returned to the village after midnight to save people, but they were all dead,” Mr. Ayyar said on Saturday. “Everything was flooded. There are three villages in our area where no houses are left; all have been razed by the flood.”

Flooding also killed at least one person in Badakhshan, a mountainous eastern province, where homes, small dams and bridges were destroyed and 2,000 livestock were killed, the provincial diaster management department said.

The provinces of Ghor and Herat, in central and western Afghanistan, were also affected by flooding, according to the Taliban authorities. And doctors were being deployed in Parwan Province — north of Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital — said Hekmatullah Shamim, the spokesman for the province’s governor, though details of the toll there were not immediately available.

Rescue teams were sending food, aid, medical teams and ambulances to the affected areas of Baghlan Province, said Sharafat Zaman, a spokesman for the Health Ministry.

Images published by the government on Saturday showed roads in Baghlan submerged in muddy water, with people trying to move vehicles that had been stuck in the sludge.
Videos from the Burka District of Baghlan Province, verified by The New York Times, showed entire villages submerged in muddy floodwater, with debris from destroyed houses and elsewhere piled up on the villages’ edges. The videos also showed women and children, covered head to toe in thick brown mud, crying out on a hilltop as they looked out over the destruction.

Barkatullah Sulaimani, a school principal in the Haji Wakil village of the Burka District, said on Saturday that when floodwater began rushing through his village, he ran to a hilltop on its outskirts. By about 11 p.m. Friday, he said, about 100 people from Haji Wakil had made it to safety, but nearly every family was missing some relatives. About 200 people from the village were unaccounted for, Mr. Sulaimani said.

Throughout the night, he took calls from people who were not in the village at the time of the flood and were seeking information about missing relatives.

“I told them I don’t see anything but water,” Mr. Sulaimani said. “They are not with us here. Maybe they are dead or alive.” Of their village, only some walls of some houses.

In recent years, Afghanistan has experienced a dire economic crisis, faced a spate of natural disasters, and dealt with the turmoil of war and clashes with its neighbor Pakistan.

The wet conditions this year have been brought on in part by the El Niño phenomenon, raising the risk of floods, which hinder crop production and the flow of food supplies, particularly in the country’s north and northeast, the International Rescue Committee said in a statement last week.

Flash floods from heavy rains inundated much of Afghanistan last month, killing more than 100 people, destroying more than 1,000 homes and ruining more than 60,000 acres of farmland, the group said.

The damage to roads, bridges and the power infrastructure could hinder the delivery of humanitarian aid there, it said. Floods are also economically devastating in a country where at least 80 percent of the population derives its income from agriculture, according to the United Nations.

“Any additional flooding will have a detrimental impact on large swaths of the population,” the International Rescue Committee said, “which are already reeling from an economic collapse, high levels of malnutrition and conflict.”

John Yoon contributed reporting from Seoul.

Flash Flooding in Afghanistan Kills at Least 300, With More Missing
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