Afghanistan Peace Campaign
UN and EU officials warn ISIS-K could recruit among millions of Afghans deported from Iran and Pakistan, as returnees face poverty, unemployment and instability in Afghanistan.
United Nations and European security officials have warned that Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan could exploit mass deportations of Afghans from Iran and Pakistan to bolster its ranks.
Since January, more than 2.6 million Afghans have returned, many after decades abroad, according to U.N. data. Diplomats say the sudden influx risks creating a pool of recruits for ISIS-Khorasan, which remains active despite Taliban claims of restored security.
Hans-Jakob Schindler, a former U.N. official who tracked extremist groups, told AFP the danger was “very high” that ISIS-K would view returnees as a potential source of manpower. An EU diplomat added that many Afghans join armed groups out of economic desperation, not ideology.
Aid agencies warn deported Afghans face dire conditions. The U.N. refugee agency estimates as many as 4 million could return by end-2025, with most lacking jobs, housing and access to services. The World Bank says nearly half the population already lives below the poverty line.
Regional powers are also alarmed. Russia says some 23,000 fighters from 20 militant groups operate inside Afghanistan, with ISIS-K running training camps in the east and north. Moscow, which has recognized Taliban authorities, called ISIS-K its “biggest concern” for regional security.
The U.N. has described Afghanistan’s situation as a “ticking time bomb,” warning that several foiled plots in Europe between 2023 and 2025 were linked to ISIS networks. Analysts say disillusioned returnees, stripped of livelihoods and viewed as outsiders, risk becoming prime targets for radical recruiters.
Humanitarian officials argue that only large-scale international aid can reduce the threat. But with Washington sharply cutting assistance to avoid strengthening Taliban rule, diplomats fear worsening poverty could hand ISIS-K an opportunity to expand its reach