Afghanistan Peace Campaign
An analyst warns Donald Trump’s push to retake Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan carries dangerous risks, including possible U.S. seizure or destruction, endangering lives and regional stability.
U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that “bad things will happen” if the Taliban refuse to hand over control of Bagram airbase to Washington.
Michael Kugelman, South Asia director at the Wilson Center, wrote in Foreign Policy that Trump’s repeated focus on Bagram reflects genuine interest rather than political posturing. He said scenarios could range from a high-risk U.S. military seizure of the base to outright destruction, moves he called extremely dangerous.
Kugelman warned such actions could cause casualties among Afghans and Americans, disrupt prisoner-release talks, and carry major political costs for Trump. He added that Trump’s demand is one the Taliban will never accept, as the group regards foreign military presence as a red line.
The Taliban on Sunday rejected Trump’s call, saying Afghanistan would not host foreign troops. They noted that while the group has sought international legitimacy through concessions such as hostage releases, Bagram remains off-limits.
Analysts also cautioned that a U.S. return to Bagram could trigger reactions from China, which might see the move as provocative. Kugelman said Washington may view the base as useful in countering Islamic State Khorasan, but argued U.S. counterterrorism efforts may be better focused elsewhere.
Trump first raised the idea publicly in a joint press conference with Britain’s prime minister, then repeated it on his Truth Social platform. Kugelman wrote the timing and tone of Trump’s threat “appear irrational,” but underlined his enduring fixation on Bagram.
The United States maintains limited diplomatic channels with the Taliban through meetings in Qatar and Kabul. Analysts say these contacts remain valuable for counterterrorism coordination and discussions on Afghanistan’s untapped mineral resources.