Afghanistan Peace CampaignThe Economist
Four years after the fall of Kabul, governments are quietly recognising the insurgents
As insurgents, the Taliban spent 20 years wearing down the world’s most powerful army. As diplomats they needed just four to break out of their international isolation. Since seizing power in August 2021, most countries have refused to recognise the Taliban as Afghanistan’s government, acknowledging them only as “de facto authorities”. That changed in July this year, when Russia officially recognised the group. The Taliban flag was raised at the Embassy of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in Moscow. Unofficially, other governments are following suit. On August 20th the Taliban hosted a trilateral meeting with China and Pakistan.
The Taliban were supposed to remain in the diplomatic doghouse until they abandoned their abhorrent treatment of women and broadened their all-male Pashtun cabinet. Neither has happened. Girls are banned from secondary school, women from working for NGOs and going to parks. Vice-and-virtue police patrol Kabul, the capital, with increasing zeal to check that women are covered up and accompanied by a male relative, according to one of the city’s few remaining female corporate executives.
The front against the Taliban has nonetheless steadily cracked. At least 15 mostly regional countries have ambassadors in Kabul, including China, Russia, Iran and several Gulf states. Many more operate at a lower level of diplomatic representation. The thaw is accelerating: the United Arab Emirates accepted a Taliban ambassador in August 2024. China followed in January. Both China and Russia eye Afghan minerals while fretting about Islamic State spillover. Business is picking up, too. Chinese, Turkish and Iranian firms are cutting deals. As a Kabul-based diplomat notes, when the Taliban must choose between an Uzbekistan energy contract and “another Western lecture on girls’ education”, the choice is obvious.
Western states are performing diplomatic contortions to engage with the Taliban on multiple issues without conceding recognition, a process an American diplomat calls a “charade”. Britain is among the few to have acceded to Taliban demands that countries must withdraw recognition from the former regime’s diplomats. It has a special envoy who has met Taliban officials at least once since being appointed in June. The EU has an office in Kabul. Norway received a Taliban diplomat in January. In March Switzerland reopened its humanitarian office.
Migration is a factor. Germany accepted two Taliban diplomats in Berlin and Bonn in July to co-ordinate the deportation of convicted Afghan criminals. More than 100 have been flown to Kabul since August 2024, despite UN warnings that Afghanistan is unsafe. But, even so, the Taliban won’t agree to solve the West’s illegal refugee problem “for free”, notes one foreign diplomat.
Similarly, America has between 12,000 and 15,000 illegal Afghan migrants it would like to return, according to an American diplomat. In January, the Biden administration traded prisoners with the Taliban. America has also lifted $10m bounties on three top Talibs, including Sirajuddin Haqqani, the interior minister, who orchestrated suicide-bombings against Western forces. Mr Haqqani remains on the terrorist list, but this barely matters: in 2022 sanctions were diluted to the point that businesses are free to deal with his ministry.
Until recently, Taliban officials met weekly with American diplomats in Qatar. Topics included human rights, drugs and counter-terrorism. The meetings ended when Mary Bischoping, an official hostile to engagement while the Taliban held American hostages, took charge. Her recent reassignment has been quietly celebrated by State Department pragmatists.