World Bank Says Afghanistan’s Modest Economic Growth Overshadowed by Rising Poverty and Fragility

The World Bank says Afghanistan’s economy shows modest growth, but rising poverty, weak governance, and declining aid continue to threaten long-term stability and recovery.
The World Bank has reported that Afghanistan’s economy shows modest signs of recovery, but deep poverty, displacement, and a fragile humanitarian situation continue to threaten the country’s stability. The findings are part of its latest Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Economic Update, titled “Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent, Unrealized Growth.”
According to the report, Afghanistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by about 4.3% in fiscal years 2025–2026, driven largely by household and public consumption. Yet, with the population expected to rise by 8.6%, per capita income is forecast to decline by nearly 4%, keeping millions of Afghans in extreme poverty.
The World Bank estimates that between 15.2 and 23.8 million Afghans — almost half the population — live on less than $3 a day, one of the highest poverty rates in the region. The Bank attributes this to overlapping crises, including forced returns of refugees, natural disasters, and weak governance. Since September 2023, more than 4 million Afghans have returned from Pakistan and Iran, with 2.1 million repatriated between January and July 2025, most involuntarily.
The report notes that the August 2025 earthquake in eastern Afghanistan, which killed more than 2,000 people, deepened economic distress. Damages were estimated at $183 million, roughly 1% of GDP, destroying homes, livestock, and vital rural infrastructure. The disaster underscored the country’s limited ability to respond to crises amid declining international aid.
On gender and employment, the World Bank says Afghanistan remains one of the world’s most restrictive environments for women. Social barriers, conflict, and policy restrictions have forced most women into low-paid, informal work. Although women’s participation in the labor force slightly increased between 2020 and 2023, nearly 60% remain inactive, and most new opportunities are in precarious home-based sectors.
Regionally, the World Bank forecasts modest economic growth of 2.8% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026 for the broader Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. However, Afghanistan’s recovery remains uncertain due to sanctions, weak governance, and the absence of international recognition. The sharp reduction in aid, the Bank warns, has already led to the closure of hundreds of health centers, depriving millions of essential services.
Roberta Gatti, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for the region, said increasing women’s participation in the workforce could raise per capita GDP by 20–30% in countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan. Osman Dione, the Bank’s Vice President for the region, called for “bold and comprehensive reforms” to remove structural barriers and empower women economically.
The report concludes that Afghanistan’s outlook remains fragile despite limited growth. “Humanitarian needs are rising rapidly while domestic capacity to respond is severely constrained,” it said. “Without structural reforms and inclusive policies, millions of Afghans — especially women and returning refugees — will remain trapped in poverty.”
Consequences of the United States’ 20-Year Presence in Afghanistan
Moscow Format Discusses Afghanistan’s Political and Economic Future
Regional powers signal objection to US reclaiming Afghanistan’s Bagram base
By Stephen Quillen and Reuters
Al Jazeera
In a joint statement on Tuesday, members of the Moscow Format of Consultations on Afghanistan – which includes rivals India and Pakistan – “reaffirmed their unwavering support for the establishment of Afghanistan as an independent, united and peaceful state”. The forum also includes Russia, China, Iran and Central Asian nations, all of whom strongly oppose any US return presence in Afghanistan.
The members “called unacceptable the attempts by countries to deploy their military infrastructure in Afghanistan and neighbouring states, since this does not serve the interests of regional peace and stability”.
Though the statement echoes last year’s forum language, it suggests broad regional opposition to Trump’s push to return to Bagram, which he handed over to Afghanistan’s Taliban five years ago as part of a deal paving the way for the US withdrawal from Kabul.
In backing the statement, India – a longtime US partner – navigates fraying ties with Washington and apparent rapprochement with the Taliban, which it long opposed but has in recent years cultivated ties with.
In the latest diplomatic outreach, India is set to welcome the Taliban’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi for a historic first visit to New Delhi this week, lasting from October 9-16.
After attending the Moscow forum, Muttaqi emphasised that Afghanistan will not accept any foreign military presence. “Afghanistan is a free and independent country, and throughout history, it has never accepted the military presence of foreigners,” he said. “Our decision and policy will remain the same to keep Afghanistan free and independent.”
Last month, Trump threatened “bad things” would happen to Afghanistan if it did not give back Bagram, and cited what he called its strategic location near China. The Taliban has rejected Trump’s calls to return the base.
Bagram is about 800km (about 500 miles) from the Chinese border, and about 2,400km (about 1,500 miles) from the nearest Chinese missile factory in Xinjiang.
Trump has referred to China as a key reason for wanting to retake control of Bagram, saying last month in London that the base is “an hour away from where [China] makes its nuclear weapons”.
Current and former US officials have cast doubt on Trump’s goal, saying that reoccupying Bagram might end up looking like a reinvasion, requiring more than 10,000 troops as well as the deployment of advanced air defences.
“The sheer logistics of negotiating redeployment and handing back would be extremely challenging and lengthy, and it’s not clear that this would serve either side’s strategic interests,” said Ashley Jackson, co-director at the Geneva-headquartered Centre on Armed Groups.
Bagram, a sprawling complex, was the main base for US forces in Afghanistan during the two decades of war that followed the September 11, 2001, attacks in New York and Washington by al-Qaeda.
Thousands of people were imprisoned at the site for years without charge or trial by US forces during its so-called “war on terror”, and many of them were abused or tortured.
The Taliban retook the facility in 2021 following the US withdrawal, which Trump first set in motion in his first term as president, and the collapse of the Afghan government with Joe Biden in the White House.
Social media content restricted in Afghanistan, Taliban sources confirm
Restrictions have been placed on content on some social media platforms in Afghanistan, Taliban government sources told BBC Afghan.
Filters have been applied to restrict certain types of content on sites including Facebook, Instagram and X, the sources at the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology said.
It is not clear exactly what sort of posts are subject to filtering. Some social media users in Kabul told the BBC that videos on their Facebook accounts are no longer viewable, while access to Instagram has also been restricted.
These restrictions on social media content come a week after internet and telecommunications services were cut off across the country for two days.
The 48-hour blackout disrupted businesses and flights, limited access to emergency services and raised fears about further isolating women and girls whose rights have been severely eroded since the hardline Islamist group swept back to power in 2021.
Social media users in Afghanistan have been complaining about limited access to different platforms in various provinces since Tuesday.
A Taliban government source said: “Some sort of controls have been applied to restrict certain types of content on platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, and X.
“We hope this time there wouldn’t be any full ban on internet.
“The filtering is almost applied for the whole county and most provinces are covered now.”
There is no formal explanation from Taliban government officials for the restrictions.
Cybersecurity organisation NetBlocks said “restrictions are now confirmed on multiple providers, the pattern shows an intentional restriction”. Social sites have been intermittently accessible on smartphones, according to news agency AFP.
A man who works in a government office in eastern Nangarhar province told the BBC he could open Facebook but could not see pictures or play videos.
He said the “internet is very slow as a whole”.
Another user in southern Kandahar province, who runs a private business, said his fibre optic internet had been cut off since Tuesday but mobile phone data was working, with Facebook and Instagram being “severely slow”.
The Taliban government has not given an explanation for the total shutdown last week. However, last month, a spokesperson for the Taliban governor in the northern province of Balkh said internet access was being blocked “for the prevention of vices”.
Since returning to power, the Taliban have imposed numerous restrictions in accordance with their interpretation of Islamic Sharia law.
Afghan women have told the BBC that the internet was a lifeline to the outside world since the Taliban banned girls over the age of 12 from receiving an education.
Women’s job options have also been severely restricted and in September, books written by women were removed from universities.
Russia hosts Taliban delegation and warns against foreign military presence in Afghanistan
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV
Associated Press
MOSCOW (AP) — Russia hosted a delegation of Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban government Tuesday and issued a strong warning against a foreign military presence in the country.
Speaking at the start of an international meeting on Afghanistan in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov praised the Taliban government for efforts to combat the Islamic State and other extremist groups, as well as eradicate illegal drugs.
Lavrov emphasized that “the deployment of military infrastructure of any third countries on the territory of Afghanistan, as well as on the territories of neighboring states, is categorically unacceptable under any pretext.”
Last month, the Afghan government rejected a bid by U.S. President Donald Trump to retake Bagram Air Base, four years after the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from the country left the sprawling military facility in the Taliban’s hands.
“The military presence of any extra-regional players could only lead to destabilization and new conflicts,” Lavrov said. “The history of Afghanistan has seen a lot of situations with foreign military presence. I believe everyone should have drawn the right conclusions long time ago.”
Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in August 2021 after the pullback of U.S. and NATO forces, they have sought international recognition while also enforcing their strict interpretation of Islamic law.
In July, Russia became the first country to recognize the Taliban’s government after removing the group from its list of outlawed organizations.
At Tuesday’s talks, Lavrov said Russia was looking forward to expanding business ties with Afghanistan and boosting anti-terrorism and anti-narcotics cooperation. He assailed the West for conducting “hostile” policies toward Kabul, maintaining a freeze on its assets and other sanctions.
Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi praised “the bold move of the Russian Federation to officially recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.”
“I appreciate it and wish that all countries follow the same path,” he said.
Muttaqi said the Moscow talks offer “a good opportunity for the countries of the region to listen to each other’s views,” noting his government has created an opportunity “to ensure comprehensive security after four decades and provide a good ground for investment, economy, transit and connectivity.”
Officials from China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan also took part in Tuesday’s talks.
While Russia was the first country to recognize the Taliban administration, the group had engaged in high-level talks with many nations and established some diplomatic ties with countries including China and the United Arab Emirates.
Still, the Taliban government has been relatively isolated on the world stage, largely over its restrictions on women.
Although the Taliban initially promised a more moderate rule than during their first stint in power from 1996 to 2001, it enforced restrictions on women and girls soon after the 2021 takeover. Women are barred from most jobs and public places, including parks, baths and gyms, while girls are banned from education beyond sixth grade.
After finding refuge in Australia, a trailblazing judge fears the Taliban will take revenge on her family
The Taliban commander, armed with a machine gun, hopped out of a tan Ford ranger the US troops had left behind. Flanked by fighters, he knocked on the door of the female judge who had put him behind bars.
It was 17 August 2021 – two days after the Taliban captured Afghanistan’s capital of Kabul following the withdrawal of US and allied troops. The Taliban’s subsequent mass release of prisoners unleashed criminals who were seeking revenge. Female judges – staunch advocates for women’s rights and justice – faced deadly reprisals.
A phone call from a neighbour alerted Pakiza Nawim’s husband that the commander she had sentenced for the rape of a 13-year-old boy three years earlier was at their front door. Luckily, the family had already fled, knowing the inevitable collapse of Afghanistan left Nawim exposed because of her work.
But four years later, Nawim and her colleagues fear the Taliban could seek retribution against their family members in Afghanistan and those at risk of deportation in neighbouring countries.
Their family members are among more than 160,000 Afghans in the queue for Australia’s offshore humanitarian visas. Nawim’s 13 relatives are in Iran illegally after fleeing the Taliban’s control of their home country 2023. They fear being deported to Afghanistan.
“I was the reason for this situation for my family. I feel guilty,” Nawim says, through her husband, who is translating.
Appointed a primary court judge in 2018, Nawim presided over criminal cases in Afghanistan’s Maidan Wardak province, about 35km from Kabul. She was the youngest judge in the province.
That year, she sentenced the commander who later came searching for her to 14 years behind bars for raping a child. He issued her a warning in the courtroom: “I will take revenge on you and your family.”
When a suicide bomber attacked the court district where Nawim worked in 2019, her government-appointed security guards fled. Her family members were the only people she could trust after this, she says, so she appointed her brothers as her security guards.
Nawim says her two brothers, who are in Iran, would be killed by the Taliban for helping a female judge if they returned to Afghanistan. Her 70-year-old mother, who has severe back pain, fears she would be deported by Iranian authorities if she sought medical treatment at a hospital.
“Sometimes during the night, I’m not able to go to sleep. I have anxiety and stress because my mother cannot have medical essentials,” Nawim says. “I’m thinking about my family a lot.”
“I was not alone in this journey … to bring justice on that province. My family was also fighting with me.”
In her final year working in the court, Nawim opted to wear the full burqa to conceal her identity when she travelled to court. Despite the threats, she remained steadfast in her convictions.
“I wanted to change the perspective of the people that the ladies are not able to do anything. I tried to make changes in the community,” she says. “I tried to put a legacy for the next generation that ladies are powerful and they are able to change the society.”
The 19 judges who resettled in Australia were granted temporary protection visas, which converted into permanent residency. But the pathway to Australia for thousands of other Afghans is complicated and lengthy.
In 2022, Australia allocated 26,500 dedicated visa places for Afghans to migrate to Australia under the offshore humanitarian visa program through to mid-2026. But demand soars beyond this.
Since the Taliban captured Kabul in August 2021, more than 251,000 Afghans have applied for visas in this program; about 20,000 have been granted. The latest statistics show that Afghan nationals accounted for 59% of all offshore humanitarian visa applicants in the 2023-24 financial year.
Australia’s suspension of operations in its embassy in Iran in June, due to a deteriorating security situation amid the 12-day Iran-Israel war, has also complicated the process of issuing exit permits for those granted a visa.
Iran and Pakistan have forced Afghans without valid visas to return to their home country or face deportation in recent years amid a hardening stance on refugees. The UN estimates that this year more than 2.1 million Afghans have returned or been forced to return to Afghanistan, including 352,000 from Pakistan and 1.5 million from Iran.
A spokesperson for the Department of Home Affairs said despite the ongoing closure of Australia’s embassy in Iran, it has continued to process humanitarian visas for applicants in the country.
“The department is aware the current situation in Iran may impact humanitarian visa holders waiting to depart,” the spokesperson said. “Resettlement of Afghans continues to be a key priority of Australia’s offshore humanitarian program.”
Nawim now lives in Melbourne with her husband, three sons and in-laws. Sitting in the family’s suburban house, her eyes well with tears as she remembers the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban.
“It was like waking from a dream that that was full of colour. When the Taliban came, we wake in a black and white world,” she says.
Nawim says she hopes to one day study law in Australia. But her mind remains focused on ensuring her family’s safe passage from the Middle East.
“I’m thinking a lot about my family members. If I feel that my family is safe, then definitely I can continue my education,” she says.
“I am still that Pakiza that can fight for education, fight for the justice.”
Muttaqi Leaves for Russia to Attend Moscow Format Meeting
UN rights body orders probe into human rights in Afghanistan, with a focus on women and girls
Associated Press
GENEVA (AP) — The U.N.’s top human rights body agreed Monday to set up an ongoing probe of human rights violations in Afghanistan under the Taliban, including against women and girls, in a measure pushed for by the European Union.
With no opposition and only China opting out of the consensus, the Human Rights Council agreed to set up an “ongoing, independent investigative mechanism” to monitor rights in Afghanistan since the Taliban’s return to power over four years ago.
The resolution aims to prepare case files that could be used by international justice, such as at the International Criminal Court, and build on work by the special investigator that the 47-member-country council has already created, among other things.
That investigator — special rapporteur Richard Bennett — last month said the Taliban have “weaponized” the legal and judicial system to oppress women and girls in what amounts to “crimes against humanity.”
Among the steps taken, the Taliban suspended laws that protected the rights of women and girls including one that had criminalized 22 forms of violence against women, including rape and forced marriage.
Wang Nian, a Chinese envoy in Geneva focusing on human rights, said Afghanistan has recently “taken various measures for stability, economic growth and improvement of people’s livelihoods. The overall security situation has remained stable.”
“These positive developments merit recognition from the international community,” said Wang, adding that the proposed resolution, “failed to acknowledge the positive progress” and “lacks balance” as he explained China’s break with consensus.
Afghanistan Peace Campaign