Analyst Says Trump’s Bagram Push Risks Dangerous Scenarios, Including Seizure or Destruction

An analyst warns Donald Trump’s push to retake Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan carries dangerous risks, including possible U.S. seizure or destruction, endangering lives and regional stability.

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that “bad things will happen” if the Taliban refuse to hand over control of Bagram airbase to Washington.

Michael Kugelman, South Asia director at the Wilson Center, wrote in Foreign Policy that Trump’s repeated focus on Bagram reflects genuine interest rather than political posturing. He said scenarios could range from a high-risk U.S. military seizure of the base to outright destruction, moves he called extremely dangerous.

Kugelman warned such actions could cause casualties among Afghans and Americans, disrupt prisoner-release talks, and carry major political costs for Trump. He added that Trump’s demand is one the Taliban will never accept, as the group regards foreign military presence as a red line.

The Taliban on Sunday rejected Trump’s call, saying Afghanistan would not host foreign troops. They noted that while the group has sought international legitimacy through concessions such as hostage releases, Bagram remains off-limits.

Analysts also cautioned that a U.S. return to Bagram could trigger reactions from China, which might see the move as provocative. Kugelman said Washington may view the base as useful in countering Islamic State Khorasan, but argued U.S. counterterrorism efforts may be better focused elsewhere.

Trump first raised the idea publicly in a joint press conference with Britain’s prime minister, then repeated it on his Truth Social platform. Kugelman wrote the timing and tone of Trump’s threat “appear irrational,” but underlined his enduring fixation on Bagram.

The United States maintains limited diplomatic channels with the Taliban through meetings in Qatar and Kabul. Analysts say these contacts remain valuable for counterterrorism coordination and discussions on Afghanistan’s untapped mineral resources.

Analyst Says Trump’s Bagram Push Risks Dangerous Scenarios, Including Seizure or Destruction
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Afghanistan’s Trade Volume Rises by 30% Compared to Last Year

According to these figures, Afghanistan’s exports during this period amounted to 748 million dollars, indicating a 9% growth.

he Ministry of Industry and Commerce has announced that in the first six months of 1404 (solar year), Afghanistan’s trade volume reached more than 6.783 billion dollars, showing a 30% increase compared to the same period last year.

According to these figures, Afghanistan’s exports during this period amounted to 748 million dollars, indicating a 9% growth compared to the first six months of last year.

The spokesperson of the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, Akhundzada Abdul Salam Jawad, said: “The main export products include raisins, figs, cotton, apricots, saffron, pistachios, grapes, beverages, and other agricultural goods, which are exported to China, India, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iraq.”

The Chamber of Agriculture and Livestock stated that, given the high level of agricultural production in the country, Afghan products must meet international standards so they can be exported not only to neighboring countries but also worldwide.

The CEO of the Chamber of Agriculture and Livestock, Waseem Safi, said: “Afghan agricultural goods are either organic or semi-organic. The world currently demands organic products—meaning everything is natural and free from chemical additives. However, standards in our exports are very important, and work must be done in this regard.”

Economic analyst Ahmad Firdous Behgzain also noted: “The more we can strengthen our economic ties with neighboring countries, the higher our national economic growth will be. There is a need to participate in both international and national conferences and to have an active presence in meetings between the government and the private sector.”

According to the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, Afghanistan’s imports during this period amounted to more than 6.035 billion dollars, showing a 21% increase compared to last year. The value of imports rose by an estimated 1.042 billion dollars compared to the previous year.

Afghanistan’s Trade Volume Rises by 30% Compared to Last Year
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‘Send your daughters or you get no aid’: the Taliban are making religious schools girls’ only option

Sara Ibrahim and Hadis Habibyar for Zan Times

When the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, Nahid, 24, was midway through an economics degree. She had hoped to work in a university after she graduated.

Instead, Nahid now spends her mornings at a religious school in the basement of a mosque in the western city of Herat, sitting on the floor and reciting scripture with 50 other women and girls, all dressed in black from head to toe.

She knows the Taliban is “trying to change women’s minds”, but says she attends the class because, “it’s the only way I can leave my home and fight depression”. The incentive of 1,000 Afghanis (£11) she receives every month also helps.

Nahid’s story is not unusual. A Guardian and Zan Times investigation across eight of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces has revealed the Taliban’s deliberate and calculated efforts to make religious studies the only education option available to women and girls in Afghanistan.

After first excluding women and girls from secondary school and further education more than four years ago, the regime has been building a large network of religious schools that promote a new alternative.

There were more than 21,000 Islamic religious schools, or madrasas, across Afghanistan by the end of last year, according to reports. Between September 2024 and February 2025, the Taliban built or laid foundations for nearly 50 new madrasas across 11 provinces.

The schools are run by mullahs in the mosque or in their homes, for which they receive a salary from the education ministry. To staff the schools, the ministry has issued teaching certificates to 21,300 former madrasa students that allow them to teach at high school, undergraduate or even postgraduate level at universities.

Families have been left with few alternatives since girls were excluded from secondary education and often find themselves pressed or incentivised into enrolling their children, especially daughters, in religious schools.

The mullahs also have an incentivise to fill the classroom as more pupils mean a higher salary. As community leaders and conduits for aid, they wield enormous power over most people’s daily lives.

Karima, from the south-western Nimroz province, pulled her two daughters out of school at the request of the local mullah. “He said he would give us food aid if I sent them to his class,” she says. “But in the end, nothing came.”

Another mother, Nasreen, says she was told: “Send your daughters to our religious classes or you get nothing.”

The result is a steady reshaping of community norms. Families who resist face isolation and hunger. Those who comply often watch their daughters return home more rigid and critical in their thinking, sometimes denouncing their own parents as “infidels”. Even job opportunities, reports suggest, are reserved for families whose daughters attend religious classes.

In the girls’ primary schools that remain open, the impact is visible. Class sizes are much smaller. In Nimroz, one teacher says that 57 of her pupils left for madrasas this year. “Before, each grade had four sections with 40 students. Now we have three sections with only 20 to 25.”

Even those who stay often attend both institutions, spending mornings in the madrasa and afternoons in school, until pressure mounts and they drop out of non-religious education altogether.

Meanwhile, experienced teachers with university degrees have been barred from teaching. Their replacements are often teenage former madrasa pupils with no educational training but strong ideological credentials.

In the western province of Farah, a headteacher recalls being ordered to dismiss five qualified teachers. One of their replacements was appointed despite being unable to read fluently; her only qualifications, says the head, were that she had connections with officials and held a certificate from a religious school.

The curriculum in madrasas is narrow: memorising the Qur’an, the Taliban’s interpretations of Islamic law, gender roles, and rules about dress and behaviour. No mathematics or science are studied.

Textbooks are imported from Pakistan and printed in Pashto, the language of the ethnic group from where the Taliban emerged. This is even the case in Dari-speaking regions (Dari and Pashto are the two main official languages in Afghanistan), leaving many children struggling to understand.

Activists say even international aid is being siphoned off to support madrasas. In one case, stationery donated by Unicef to a public school was diverted to a mullah’s class; the school janitor was told to record the pilfered supplies as being “misplaced”, says a schoolteacher.

The expansion of madrasas is also reshaping Afghanistan’s job market. Civil servants with years of training are being replaced by teenagers with just madrasa certificates. In Nimroz, one activist recalls a woman with a bachelor’s degree and 20 years’ experience at the women’s affairs department being dismissed without explanation. Her replacement was a 17-year-old madrasa graduate. “Now everyone understands. If you want a job, forget university. Go to the madrasa.”

The message has filtered down. The girls that were interviewed say they no longer dream of becoming doctors or engineers. Instead, they see madrasa certificates as safer and increasingly the only qualification that counts.

For Nahid, the economics student who felt obliged to become a madrasa pupil, the paradox is cruel. The classes offer her a reprieve from isolation and depression, but only within the confines of an ideology she rejects. “If I stay home, I will lose my mind,” she says. “If I go, at least I see other women.”

‘Send your daughters or you get no aid’: the Taliban are making religious schools girls’ only option
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‘It kept our spirits alive’: Taliban’s internet blackout leaves girls in despair

Khadija Haidary for Zan Times

Last week, 17-year-old Marjaneh* sat at her computer, waiting for her nightly online English lessons to begin. At 7pm, the scheduled start time, her laptop screen stayed black. The family’s wifi, like the wireless internet across her neighbourhood, had gone and with it, her only chance to continue her education.

“These online classes were my only source of hope,” says Marjaneh, speaking from Afghanistan through a crackling phone connection. “I thought, when they [Taliban] closed schools at least they wouldn’t cut the internet, but now that has been taken away too.”

Last Monday, the Taliban started shutting down Afghanistan’s fibre-optic internet across the northern provinces. On 15 September, the connection to Balkh province was cut and since then access to broadband internet has also been closed to Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan, Nimroz, Zabul, Baghlan, Takhar, Kunduz, Badakhshan, Herat and Parwan.

The move has been taken, according to the Taliban’s supreme leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, to “prevent immorality”, and there are now fears that this is the first step towards a total shutdown of internet access for ordinary Afghans.

The Taliban leadership is reportedly not only considering cutting broadband services but also extending the ban to internet services offered by telecommunications companies, which would stop people getting online using mobile data.

The move, which coincides with the fourth anniversary of the Taliban’s ban on girls attending secondary school, is a fatal blow to the online schools that became one of the last educational lifelines for Afghan girls and young women barred from classrooms and universities.

Marjaneh had hoped English would be her ticket to a scholarship abroad and a chance to train as a doctor. But without wifi, her only option is mobile data – patchy, expensive and off-limits in Kandahar to girls without a male relative to buy them a sim card.

In Takhar province, 17-year-old Maryam* faces the same battle. She had been studying coding and graphic design as well as preparing for a test of English as a foreign language (TOEFL) through an online course since January 2025.

When the wifi was cut, she switched to her phone but says: “The teacher’s voice kept cutting in and out. For coding you need a stable computer connection; without it, the whole lesson collapses.”

Since they have been barred from education, tens of thousands of girls and women have turned to online education. One provider, the “Online Women’s University” says it had enrolled 17,000 Afghan students across 15 subjects, many joining classes from their bedrooms.

Cutting internet not only prevents girls from learning online, but also severs their last connection to the outside world.

“It wasn’t just about classes,” says Roweida*, a 25-year-old law student in Balkh province. “It kept our spirits alive. Every night we met on Google Meet and hearing each other’s voices gave us hope. When the internet went, it felt like the roof had fallen on us.”

Afghanistan’s fibre-optic project began in 2007 with $60m in donor funding, eventually spanning nearly 6,000 miles (9,000km) and linking 26 provinces to global networks. By last year, nearly 26 million Afghans had access to telecommunications, with fibre offering the fastest and most affordable route.

Now, that infrastructure sits idle on Taliban orders. Mobile internet remains but is slow, as bandwidth is restricted. It is also costly, a luxury in a country where unemployment is soaring and food insecurity affects most households.

In Baghlan, Sonia*, 21, who was participating in online journalism classes run by Zan Times, says she feel hopeless as the cost of data is unaffordable when her only brother’s wages have to support their whole family (when about 85% of the population live on less than 2,200 afghanis a month). “I bought 5GB of data for 400 afghanis, it lasted two weeks,” she says. “It’s impossible to keep paying for such a high cost.”

For families already stretched, the shift from unlimited home wifi to metered mobile data doubles the costs and sharply reduces access.

For girls such as Marjaneh and Maryam, the price is not only fiinancial but existential. “If this continues,” Maryam said, “I won’t graduate. I’ll lose TOEFL, coding, everything. It just feels hopeless.”

* Names have been changed to protect identities

‘It kept our spirits alive’: Taliban’s internet blackout leaves girls in despair
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Afghanistan Loses UN Voting Rights For Third Year, Faces Growing Global Isolation

Khaama Press

Afghanistan has lost its UN General Assembly voting rights for the third year running after failing to pay membership dues, deepening its political isolation worldwide.

The United Nations has confirmed that Afghanistan has once again lost its voting rights in the General Assembly after failing to pay its annual membership dues.

According to the UN Charter, any member state that does not pay contributions for more than two years is automatically suspended from voting.

Afghanistan’s annual contribution is around US$200,000. However, the country has not made payments for the past three years, leaving its debt at more than US$900,000.

Taliban officials claim that the lack of international recognition prevents them from making direct payments, though critics argue the issue reflects Afghanistan’s broader diplomatic isolation.

Naseer Faiq, Afghanistan’s representative at the UN, said the absence of a legitimate and representative government has left the country without a voice on the global stage.

He added that Afghanistan has been absent from the UN General Assembly leaders’ summit for four consecutive years since the Taliban takeover in August 2021.

Manizha Bakhtari, Afghanistan’s ambassador to Austria, also lamented that the international community has shifted its focus to other crises, leaving Afghanistan sidelined. She warned that the country’s credibility and standing have eroded.

The continued loss of representation and voting rights highlights Afghanistan’s deepening isolation, raising fears that its people will pay the heaviest price through further humanitarian and political neglect.

Afghanistan Loses UN Voting Rights For Third Year, Faces Growing Global Isolation
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Russian Daily: China to Assess Taliban’s Readiness Against Possible U.S. Military Operation in Afghanistan

Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports that China has invited Taliban defence chief Mullah Yaqoob to Beijing to evaluate the group’s readiness against potential U.S. operations in Afghanistan.

Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta has reported that China has issued an unexpected invitation to Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, the Taliban’s acting defence minister, to visit Beijing.

The report linked the move to recent remarks by U.S. president Donald Trump, who suggested Washington plans to regain control of Afghanistan’s Bagram airbase.

According to Afghan sources cited by the paper, Trump views a symbolic return to Bagram as central to his strategy before the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.

The paper said American envoys have been in contact for months with Taliban leaders and Afghan politicians in exile. While some Taliban officials appeared open, supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada reportedly opposed any U.S. return.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta further claimed that Washington is preparing for possible special military operations in Afghanistan, considering the deployment of thousands of U.S. soldiers along with former Afghan troops living abroad.

Analysts quoted in the report believe China’s invitation to Yaqoob is designed to assess both the Taliban’s military readiness and their willingness to resist a potential U.S. operation.

The developments highlight how Afghanistan remains a focal point of global power struggles, with Beijing testing Taliban resolve while Washington contemplates a symbolic comeback through Bagram.

Russian Daily: China to Assess Taliban’s Readiness Against Possible U.S. Military Operation in Afghanistan
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First Meeting of the OIC Contact Group on Afghanistan Held

The Islamic Emirate has not yet commented on the first meeting of the OIC Contact Group on Afghanistan.

The first meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) Contact Group on Afghanistan was held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

This meeting took place in New York during the 78th session of the UN General Assembly. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister emphasized Pakistan’s commitment to peace and stability in Afghanistan.

Ishaq Dar, stressing the need for Afghanistan to come out of isolation, urged OIC member states to prioritize unconditional humanitarian assistance, the revival of trade and banking systems, strengthening regional connectivity, and promoting dialogue to fulfill international commitments.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan stated: “Mr. Dar called on Afghan authorities to take concrete and verifiable actions against cross-border terrorism. For Afghanistan’s stability, he proposed establishing an OIC working group of experts to develop a roadmap, stressing that sustainable peace requires sincerity, mutual respect, and political will.”

Political analyst Sayed Moqaddam Amin also said: “This could easily influence the regional situation. Allocating this financial seat is in Afghanistan’s favor. They can do it very easily and adopt a positive stance in this regard.”

Qatar’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs also highlighted the vital importance of the OIC Contact Group on Afghanistan in addressing the country’s challenges.

Mohammed bin Abdulaziz bin Saleh Al-Khulaifi stated that Afghanistan’s current situation requires joint commitments, calling on OIC member states to create conditions for meaningful dialogue and support for Afghanistan.

The Qatari Foreign Ministry’s statement read: “Dr. Al-Khulaifi emphasized the vital importance of this contact group in his speech, noting that this meeting is being held at a sensitive time when Afghanistan’s humanitarian, economic, and political conditions require stability and joint commitments for the support of Afghans. The Afghan people are facing unprecedented challenges, and it is the duty of OIC member states to unite and provide the ground for meaningful dialogue and support.”

Political analyst Saleem Paigir said: “The OIC, in holding its first meeting on this issue, could potentially influence the positions of some countries regarding Afghanistan. And countries, in a more coordinated manner, can engage with Afghanistan.”

Another political analyst, Moeen Gul Chamakni, said: “They have now realized that Afghanistan must come out of political and economic isolation.”

The Islamic Emirate has not yet commented on the first meeting of the OIC Contact Group on Afghanistan, but it had previously praised regional efforts to address Afghanistan’s challenges.

First Meeting of the OIC Contact Group on Afghanistan Held
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Global Leaders Call for Support and Inclusion in Afghanistan at UN Assembly

The President of Turkey emphasized global support for Afghanistan and called on the Islamic Emirate to adopt an inclusive approach based on human values.

Afghanistan was discussed in the speeches of several world leaders during the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly.

The President of Turkey emphasized global support for Afghanistan and called on the Islamic Emirate to adopt an inclusive approach based on human values.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said: “In Afghanistan, our fundamental desire is that the current administration demonstrates an approach that embraces the society and that takes human values into concentration. In this process, it is essential that the international community does not leave Afghan people alone. The Turkish nation will stop by the Afghan people.”

The President of Tajikistan also emphasized his country’s support for stability, nationwide security, and development in Afghanistan.

Emomali Rahmon said: “Tajikistan also supports peace and stability, overall security and social economic development in neighboring Afghanistan. We are ready to render up all assistance in these places and in this regard, call on the international community to provide humanitarian assistance especially to regions affected by drought and recent severe earthquakes.”

The presidents of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan also highlighted the importance of Afghanistan’s stability and development.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of Uzbekistan, said: “While speaking about global and regional security and sustainable development, it is impossible to overlook the issue of Afghanistan. Supporting the aspirations of Afghan people for a peaceful and stable life requires the United efforts of the international community. I would like to emphasize that it is of utmost importance to prevent this country’s isolation.”

Sadyr Japarov, President of Kyrgyzstan, emphasized: “We are convinced that the assets of Afghanistan, frozen by Western countries in the amount of 9 billion U.S. dollars, must be returned to the Afghan people as soon as possible.”

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Kazakhstan, also said: “Kazakhstan beliefs that inclusive development in Afghanistan is a basis for long term regional peace and stability.”

Meanwhile, the Islamic Emirate welcomed the positive stance of some countries, stating that supporting stability and development in Afghanistan benefits the region.

Hamdullah Fitrat, Deputy Spokesman of the Islamic Emirate, said: “Support for stability and progress in Afghanistan benefits the entire region, and Afghanistan believes in strengthening positive relations with all countries.”

This comes as the 80th UN General Assembly is taking place at a time when, over the past four years, no representative from Afghanistan has participated in the UN’s high-level meetings. The Islamic Emirate’s efforts to obtain Afghanistan’s seat at the UN have so far been unsuccessful.

Global Leaders Call for Support and Inclusion in Afghanistan at UN Assembly
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Sima Bahous: UN Has Neglected Rights of Afghan Women

This comes as the high-level UN General Assembly session began on September 23 and will continue until the 29th of this month.

The United Nations Under-Secretary-General and UN Women’s third Executive Director, stated at the 80th UN General Assembly that women and girls in Afghanistan bear the heaviest burden of the crisis and remain exposed to violence and hunger caused by various crises.

Sami Bahous added that the UN has not fulfilled its responsibilities properly regarding the situation of women in Afghanistan, the Congo, Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, and Yemen, which are facing disasters.

She said: “Women and girls in crisis suffered unspeakable atrocities, hunger and violence. From Afghanistan, the DRC, Gaza, the Sudan, Ukraine to Yemen and beyond, women and girls bear the brunt of crisis. We owe it to them to spare no effort in the pursuit for peace.”

On the sidelines of the assembly, the UN Secretary-General held discussions with the Presidents of Tajikistan and Kazakhstan regarding the situation in Afghanistan.

The Secretary-General’s spokesperson stated in a press release that António Guterres and Emomali Rahmon exchanged views on UN reforms, terrorism, regional developments in Central Asia, and Afghanistan. Guterres emphasized Tajikistan’s positive role in resolving border issues and strengthening regional cooperation.

Additionally, Tom Fletcher, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, reported a discussion with Sergey Vershinin, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, on key issues including the humanitarian situation and its challenges in Afghanistan.

Wais Naseri, a political analyst, stated: “To gain international legitimacy and obtain Afghanistan’s seat at the United Nations, global conditions and the demands and suggestions of the international community must be accepted.”

Mohammaduddin Mohammadi, another expert, added: “Afghanistan has not yet met the conditions of the United Nations. It would be better if the UN officially requested from Afghanistan: if you want this seat, you must fulfill the set conditions.”

This comes as the high-level UN General Assembly session began on September 23 and will continue until the 29th of this month.

Sima Bahous: UN Has Neglected Rights of Afghan Women
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UNICEF Repeats Call for Reopening Girls’ Schools in Afghanistan

Khaama Press

UNICEF urged the Taliban to reopen girls’ schools, warning Afghanistan’s future depends on education to prevent child marriage, empower women, and address the worsening humanitarian crisis.

UNICEF has renewed its call on the Taliban to reopen secondary schools for girls, stressing that Afghanistan’s future depends on equal access to education.

Sen Gupta, UNICEF’s Director of Child Protection, said on October Tuesday, September 23 that schooling is not only about learning but also about protecting girls from child marriage and early pregnancies.

The agency has consistently urged the Taliban to reverse their education ban, which for four years has kept millions of girls above grade six out of classrooms and universities.

Since 2021, Afghanistan girls have been systematically denied secondary and higher education, with UNICEF and other rights groups describing the policy as one of the gravest injustices of the modern era.

UNICEF officials warned that the prolonged closure of schools has left young Afghan women without opportunities, threatening the country’s social and economic future.

In its latest report, UNICEF also highlighted the collapse of Afghanistan’s health system, noting rising cases of preventable illness, child malnutrition, and severe gaps in medical access. Restrictions on female health workers, it said, have further limited women and children’s ability to receive life-saving care.

Aid agencies and analysts caution that unless education and healthcare restrictions are lifted, Afghanistan risks creating a lost generation—deepening poverty, fueling humanitarian crises, and isolating the country even further from the global community.

UNICEF Repeats Call for Reopening Girls’ Schools in Afghanistan
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