Shabana Basij-Rasikh is co-founder and president of School of Leadership, Afghanistan (SOLA).
The Washington Post
January 6, 2025
Especially for girls, hope is difficult to come by. But it has not been extinguished.
This past December marked two years since women could attend college in Afghanistan. March will mark three years since girls could go to school past sixth grade. And only a few weeks ago, the Taliban barred women from studying to become midwives or nurses.
For a long time, Afghanistan was the country with the highest rate of maternal mortality. That’s no longer the case — that awful distinction is now held by South Sudan. But Afghanistan’s rate remains the highest of any nation outside Africa. And that’s only on the national level. Certain remote regions of Afghanistan see a maternal mortality rate that’s much higher than the national one, particularly regions such as Badakhshan in the northeast.
A few weeks ago, I talked to a 13-year-old girl in Badakhshan over Zoom.
She was telling me about her parents. Both are nurses. Her mother was no longer permitted to work in a clinic, but she could see patients at their home, and she saw many of them. These home visits inspired the girl.
“I want to be an OB/GYN,” she told me. “Women die here when they give birth. So many women die here. If I become a doctor, I can serve my people and I can change that.”
“If I don’t find a way to study, I’ll have a dark future here,” she said. “I’ll keep trying. Failure is a part of life. I have lots of plans. I will make them happen. I’m going to build a clinic in this village someday.”
“I want to study. I want to go to school. I’m living in a place that is two seasons under the snow,” she said. She’s right. Winters last a long time in Badakhshan.
Two days after the girl and I spoke, the Taliban issued their decree forbidding women to become nurses like the girl’s mother.
A different 13-year-old girl told me that she dreams of leaving Afghanistan to study. She said she sees many girls her age hoping to find some way out of their homeland, too, though via a different path. They are looking to find Afghan men living overseas to whom they can offer themselves as wives. Thirteen-year-old girls.
Some girls reach for the humor in anger. They bitterly mock the Taliban in private. One girl told me how proud she was to already be a graduate, which means she made it through sixth grade. What an accomplishment. And now a whole world of opportunity awaits.
Others keep working to get out despite the obstacles. One girl told me she was taking online classes to learn to code when she realized they wouldn’t help her get into any international university, as she still lacked some sort of widely accepted credential. Which is why she and a small group of her friends are working with a teacher online to get their GEDs, the U.S.-based high school certification.
I’ve spoken to girls who climb up on the roofs of their homes every day to get a usable cellular signal. One girl from the provinces would even climb into the hills so that she could be alone and speak freely.
As parents of older teens in the United States will know, it’s early decision and early action season for college acceptances. Recently, an Afghan high school student I had come to know, a girl enrolled outside of Afghanistan, invited me to virtually join her and her family on the morning she would learn whether she had been accepted to the college of her choice. There was a lot of excitement and plenty of nerves. The morning came and there I was online with this girl and her family who were dialing in from Badakhshan.
I saw her father, mother and siblings by the illumination of a solar-powered light. They were gathered near a sawdust-burning stove. There was a little girl there who looked quite young. I learned later that she’s 4, and she’s the student’s little sister. The sisters have seen each other in person only once ever.
We all watched as the student — their sister, their daughter — opened the message she’d received from the school she wanted so badly to attend.
Silence for a moment and then jubilation. She was laughing. We all were. I saw her father’s and her mother’s faces so clearly: They were crying. Happiness. Pride. She’d gotten in. She’d done it.
It’s easy to say there’s not much hope to be found in Afghanistan today. And there’s not. But hope is not extinct. It exists only in small bursts, in hidden places, under the snow. It exists in the relentless spirit of girls on winter rooftops. It exists in the faces of a father and mother in the Badakhshan cold, sitting by a sawdust stove, warmed and illuminated by a girl and a dream that she made real.
It’s rare and precious. But it exists.
A long time under the snow for the women of Afghanistan
For two decades, they were close allies. Why are relations between Pakistan and the Taliban so tense now?
When the Taliban seized power in Kabul in August 2021, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed delivered a triumphant news conference at the Torkham crossing with Afghanistan.
He claimed that the Taliban’s swift ascendance to power would create “a new bloc” and the region would reach great global importance. Imran Khan, Pakistan’s prime minister at the time, equated the Taliban’s return to power with Afghans having “broken the shackles of slavery”.
For nearly 20 years, the Afghan Taliban fought a sophisticated and sustained revolt, confronted – at one point – by a United States-led coalition of more than 40 countries in Afghanistan. In that period, Taliban leaders and fighters found sanctuary inside Pakistan across the regions bordering Afghanistan. Taliban leaders also formed a presence in, and links with, major cities in Pakistan such as Quetta, Peshawar and later, Karachi.
Many Taliban leaders and many fighters are graduates of Pakistani Islamic religious schools, including the Darul Uloom Haqqania, where Mullah Muhammad Omar, the founder of the Taliban movement, reportedly studied. In Pakistan, the Taliban found an ecosystem fostering organic relationships across the spectrum of Pakistani society, enabling the group to reorganise and initiate a lethal uprising that began around 2003. Without Pakistan’s support and sanctuary, the successful uprising by the Taliban would have been highly unlikely.
Given this background, what explains the recent deterioration of bilateral relations, with the Pakistani military conducting air strikes inside Afghanistan this week – only the latest evidence of the tensions between Islamabad and the Afghan Taliban?
Historical and current factors
Afghanistan has a complicated history with Pakistan. While Pakistan welcomed the Taliban in Kabul as a natural ally, the Taliban government is proving to be less cooperative than Pakistan had hoped, aligning itself with nationalist rhetoric to galvanise support from the wider Afghan society. Taliban leaders are also eager to transform from a fighter group to a government, ostensibly an ongoing endeavour, and forging relations beyond heavy reliance on Pakistan.
The Durand Line, a colonial-era boundary dividing the regions and communities between Afghanistan and what is now Pakistan, has never been formally recognised by any Afghan state after Pakistan’s establishment in 1947. The Durand Line is internationally recognised as a border between the two countries, and Pakistan has fenced it almost entirely. Yet, in Afghanistan, the Durand Line has become an emotive issue because it divides Pashtuns on the two sides of the border.
The Taliban government in the 1990s did not endorse the Durand Line, and the current Taliban regime is following its predecessors. In Pakistan, this is seen as a nuisance and a challenge to the doctrine of Pakistan’s ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan.
With the Taliban’s success in Afghanistan, the armed rebellion arena has seemingly shifted to Pakistan. There has been a significant spike in militant attacks on Pakistani security and police forces since 2022 – particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces.
Most of the attacks are claimed by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the so-called Pakistan Taliban. TTP and Afghan Taliban carved symbiotic relations for years, sharing sanctuary, tactics and resources, often in Waziristan and other Pakistani regions bordering Afghanistan.
Pakistan treated the Afghan Taliban as ‘friends’ after 2001, partly to weaken any sense of cross-border Pashtun nationalism and hoping to leverage its influence on the Taliban in developments within Afghanistan and in relations with the US. In 2011, Michael Mullen, the US military chief at the time, stated that the Haqqani Network – a key component of the Afghan Taliban – was a “veritable arm” of the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI), Pakistan’s powerful intelligence agency. Analysts predicted, as it was feared, that Pakistan’s support for the Taliban to seize power in Afghanistan would lead to a ‘Pyrrhic victory’ with Pakistani fighter groups and other violent nonstate actors feeling emboldened, not weakened, as a result.
The significance and implications of tensions
It is unlikely that the Taliban would accept any Pakistani demands for action against TTP leaders in Afghanistan’s border areas with Pakistan. Crucially, such action would disrupt the Taliban’s equilibrium with TTP and open space for other more extreme groups such as Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). The Taliban leaders are deploying the same logic that Pakistan used for nearly two decades, dismissing demands by the former Afghan government and the US to curb Taliban activities inside its territories. Like Pakistan then, the Taliban now argue that the TTP is an internal Pakistani issue and that Islamabad must resolve its problems domestically.
The Pakistani army will most likely continue bombing the Afghan territory with impunity, faced only with minor international condemnation. There is a growing international precedence, unfortunately. Countries such as Israel conduct cross-border air strikes, claiming security threats. In addition, the Pakistani army, as the long-term guardian of security in the country, is under tremendous pressure to demonstrate tangible action in countering militancy and protecting the country’s infrastructure, including Chinese-invested economic projects in Balochistan. Attacking Afghan territory allows for political messaging to the Pakistani population to centre on an externally enabled ‘enemy’. It also insulates the state from engaging with the growing domestic demands for political and socioeconomic empowerment, especially by Pakistani Pashtuns.
Meanwhile, the Taliban government in Afghanistan lacks resources, an organised army and any meaningful international partnerships to push back against Pakistan’s assertiveness. In March 2024, a senior Taliban military leader stated that the US maintained control over Afghan airspace, explaining the occasional appearance of US drones in Afghan skies.
While the Taliban leaders have promised ‘retaliation’, it is unclear how they can do that against a militarily powerful neighbour that also happens to be their long-term strategic supporter. Pakistan also maintains other levers of influence against the Taliban: Most trade into landlocked Afghanistan flows through Pakistan, and Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees for decades.
However, Pakistan’s military action inside Afghanistan will fuel anti-Pakistani sentiments among the Afghan population and further alienate Pakistani Pashtuns. As the Afghan case demonstrates, insurgencies feed on societal resentment, deprivation and youth disillusionment.
Solutions require leaders to illustrate boldness to address long-term grievances. A reactionary show of force might make newsworthy momentary gestures, but achieving peace is usually an art of wisdom and patience. Ironically, Pakistan and Afghanistan offer workable pathways for regional economic integration, connecting Central Asia and South Asia regions. Sadly, the lack of political will and vision among leaders for a generation and the securitisation of bilateral relations have hindered prosperity for more than 300 million people in both countries.
Source: Al Jazeera
Analysis: Why have Pakistan’s ties with the Afghan Taliban turned frigid?
Mr. Sopko has been the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction since 2012.
The New York Times
January 2, 2025
The collapse of the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan on Aug. 15, 2021, revealed what little American lives and money had purchased over 20 years there. It also laid bare a gaping disconnect between reality and what senior U.S. officials had been telling Americans for decades: that success was just around the corner.
As the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction since 2012, my staff and I have audited and investigated U.S. programs and spending to rebuild Afghanistan — a mission that, it was hoped, would turn the theocratic, tribal-based “Graveyard of Empires” into a modern liberal democracy.
In hundreds of reports over the last 12 years, we have detailed a long list of systemic problems: The U.S. government struggled to carry out a coherent strategy, fostered overly ambitious expectations, started unsustainable projects and did not understand the country or its people. American agencies measured success not by what they accomplished, but by dollars spent or checklists of completed tasks.
As our own agency winds down and we prepare to release our final report this year, we raise a fundamental and too rarely asked question: Why did so many senior officials tell Congress and the public, year after year, that success was on the horizon when they knew otherwise? For two decades, officials publicly asserted that continuing the mission in Afghanistan was essential to national interests, until, eventually, two presidents — Donald Trump and Joe Biden — concluded it was not.
The incoming Trump administration, Congress and the long-suffering American taxpayer must ask how this happened so that the United States can avoid similar results in Ukraine, Gaza, Syria and other war zones.
We should start with what “success” in Afghanistan was ever supposed to mean. I believe many Americans who worked there over the years wanted to not only achieve important U.S. strategic interests — such as eliminating a haven for terrorists — but also secure a better future for the Afghan people.
But a perverse incentive drove our system. To win promotions and bigger salaries, military and civilian leaders felt they had to sell their tours of duty, deployments, programs and projects as successes — even when they were not. Leaders tended to report and highlight favorable information while obscuring that which pointed to failure. After all, failures do not lead to an ambassadorship or an elevation to general.
They also aren’t good business for the contractors on which the U.S. mission relied to manage and support programs and projects. For contractors, claiming success, whether real or imaginary, was vital to obtaining future business. So spending became the measure of success. (The same, of course, is true in Washington, where unspent allocations are tantamount to failure, leading to budget cuts.) Accountability for how money was spent was poor. One general told us that he faced a challenge: How to spend the remaining $1 billion from his annual budget in just over a month? Returning the money was not an option. Another official we spoke to said he refused to cancel a multimillion-dollar building project that field commanders did not want, because the funding had to be spent. The building was never used.
As one former U.S. military adviser told my office, the entire system became a self-licking ice cream cone: More money was always being spent to justify previous spending. Old staff departed, new staff arrived with “better” ideas, and new iterations of the same old solutions were repeated, for years. At the same time, many of the problems the U.S. programs faced were simply beyond our control. The sudden collapse of the Afghan government and rise of the Taliban showed that the United States could not buy favorable Afghan perceptions of the country’s corrupt leaders and government, or of America’s intentions.
Yet over two decades — and even as Afghan provinces fell like dominoes in the summer of 2021 — I do not recall any senior official telling Congress or the American people that failure was a real possibility.
Our final report will detail what many experts and senior government officials now say to us, with hindsight: that these entrenched, fundamental challenges doomed any real possibility of long-term success. Some argued that decisions made as early as 2002 — such as partnering with warlords and refusing to include the Taliban in discussions about Afghanistan’s future — set a course for inevitable failure. Others blamed poor interagency coordination, rampant Afghan corruption, ignorance of local culture and the distance between U.S. goals and Afghanistan’s realities.
There were key moments when American officials could have come clean. Before the United States began, in 2014, to transfer responsibility for security to the Afghans, a succession of U.S. generals and officials made optimistic claims that Afghan forces would be effective in fighting the Taliban, that corruption and human rights abuses were contained and that Afghan elections were democratic and fair — assessments that did not align with my agency’s reporting to Congress or basic reality. In 2013, one senior official even suggested that Afghanistan might prove to be the most successful reconstruction effort over the last quarter-century.
The fall of Kunduz in 2015 — which represented the first time since 2001 that the Taliban regained control of a major city — should have punctured the delusion that Afghan forces could hold their own. But building those forces had been the cornerstone of the U.S. reconstruction effort, whose success would pave the way for eventual U.S. withdrawal. The rosy narrative had to be maintained.
The reality was that Taliban fighters with Cold War-era rifles and dirt bikes often outperformed Afghan government forces with state-of-the-art equipment and backing from U.S. air power. The Taliban were religiously motivated to rid the country of foreign invaders and what they perceived as a puppet government installed by Washington. The members of the Afghan military — beset by low morale, chronic logistical problems and pervasive corruption — were often motivated solely by their salaries, though they, of course, also suffered hugely in the fight.
Official statements across successive U.S. presidential administrations were, in my view, often simply untrue. Just six days before the Afghan government collapsed, the Pentagon press secretary declared that Afghanistan had more than 300,000 soldiers and police officers, even though the special inspector general’s office had been warning for years that no one really knew how many soldiers and policemen were available, nor what their operational capabilities were. As early as 2015, I informed Congress that corrupt Afghan officials were listing “ghost” soldiers and police officers on rosters and pocketing the salaries.
Important information for measuring the success of initiatives was — at times deliberately — hidden from Congress and the American public, including USAID-funded assessments that concluded Afghan ministries were incapable of managing direct U.S. financial assistance. Despite vigorous efforts by the U.S. bureaucracy to stop us, my office made such material public.
Special interests are a big part of the problem. President Dwight Eisenhower once warned of the growing influence of a “military-industrial complex.” Today, there are multiple complexes: development and humanitarian assistance, anti-corruption and transparency, protection for women and marginalized people, and many others. These are all good and noble causes, to be sure. But when it came to Afghanistan, organizations under these umbrellas, whether because of altruism or more selfish motivations, contributed to the overly optimistic assessments of the situation to keep the funds flowing. Self-serving delusion was America’s most formidable foe.
That delusion continues today. According to data provided to my office by the Treasury Department, since 2021 the United States has funneled $3.3 billion to Afghanistan through public international organizations, mainly United Nations offices, for humanitarian purposes. Some of this money helps the Afghan people, and some goes to the Taliban. In response to a congressional request, my office reported this year that between the American withdrawal in August 2021 and this past May, U.S.-funded partners paid at least $10.9 million in taxes and fees to Taliban authorities. In July, we reported that two out of five State Department bureaus were unable to show that their contractors working in Afghanistan in 2022 had been vetted sufficiently to ensure their work was not benefiting terrorist organizations.
Today, most aid to Afghanistan and other war-torn countries flows through United Nations offices that my agency has identified as having weak oversight. If we are to continue providing taxpayer dollars to these organizations, it must be made conditional on U.S. oversight agencies having full access to their projects and records to make sure funding reaches the people it is intended to help.
In Afghanistan, the office of the special inspector general was often the only government agency reliably reporting on the situation on the ground, and we faced stiff opposition from officials in the Departments of Defense and State, USAID and the organizations that supported their programs. We were able to do our work only because Congress granted us the freedom to operate independently. Inspectors general for the military, State Department and USAID, however, do not enjoy such autonomy. If we are going to fix a broken system that puts bureaucrats and special interests ahead of taxpayers, the first step is to make all federal inspectors general as fully independent as my office has been.
Ultimately, however, if we do not address the incentives in our government that impede truth-telling, we will keep pursuing projects both at home and overseas that do not work, rewarding those who rationalize failure while reporting success, and burning untold billions of dollars. American taxpayers deserve better.
John F. Sopko has served as the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction since 2012; he was appointed by President Barack Obama and served under the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations. He has been a prosecutor, congressional counsel, law partner and senior federal government adviser.
America, Afghanistan and the Price of Self-Delusion
The leftist People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) irrevocably altered the country’s trajectory with its coup d’état in 1978, setting off a chain of events that would have lasting repercussions. The debate surrounding the extent of the Soviet Union’s influence on the party prior to this, as well as Moscow’s desire to see its rise to power, continues to this day. What is clear, however, is that the PDPA’s takeover of power and the subsequent Soviet military intervention in December 1979 touched off a shift of seismic proportions not only in Afghanistan’s political landscape but also in the lives of ordinary Afghans. Along with Western support for the mujahedin who opposed the party, the PDPA internationalised Afghanistan’s internal conflicts over modernisation and governance that would last four decades, marking it as the last ‘hot war’ in the context of the Cold War. AAN’s Thomas Ruttig looks at the party’s history, drawing from earlier AAN reports, as well as adding details from lesser known sources.
On 1 January 1965, 27 men[1] (apparently there were no women present) established the Hezb-e Demokratik-e Khalq-e Afghanistan as it was called in Dari, or De Afghanistan de Khalqo Dimukratik Gund in Pashto (People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) in English) during a meeting in a modest house in Sher Shah Mena, in the Karte-e Chahar neighbourhood, just south of Kabul University’s sprawling campus.[2]
The PDPA was one of the groups that took advantage of the political opening that followed the adoption of a new constitution in 1963. This constitution had transformed Afghanistan from a semi-absolute into a more constitutional monarchy that included elements of parliamentarianism – although not for the first time.[3] In principle, the new constitution allowed the formation of political parties for the first time in Afghanistan’s history. However, the law on political parties, which was passed by parliament, was never ratified by King Muhammad Zaher Shah. This left the emerging parties, including the PDPA, in legal limbo – and led some of them – not only those on the left but also Islamists – to contemplate violent means of taking power.
When parliamentary elections were held in 1965, none of these parties could field candidates under their own names, although their political affiliations were widely recognised due to their increased public activism.
Most, if not all, of PDPA’s 27 founding members belonged to clandestine leftist study circles, or the so-called mahfels, most of which had sprung up in the early 1960s, with at least one mahfel dating back to 1956. There were 10 to 12 such circles in Kabul, with less than 70 members collectively, according to Tajik author Qozemsha Iskandarov.[4] Some of them counted military officers in their ranks, a fact that would prove to be significant in later coups.
Several of these circles aligned themselves with Marxism-Leninism, choosing the Soviet Union as their ideological guide. Some had more social democratic, non-revolutionary outlooks. There were also Maoist groups inspired by the People’s Republic of China, which were known locally as Sholayi, a nod to their publication Sho’la-ye Jawed (Eternal Flame), but they generally maintained their distance from the other groups.[5]
Among the reported PDPA founding members, only two came from the working class, as noted by Iskandarov – Muhammad Alam Kargar and Mulla [sic] Muhammad Isa Kargar – neither was elected to the party’s Central Committee, which was comprised of seven full and four alternate members – mainly of intellectuals, often school or university teachers. There were also several students present at the PDPA founding congress, according to one of the author’s sources, but the source could not remember whether they were ‘guests’ or party members.[6]
The host of the party’s founding congress, Nur Muhammad Tarakay,[7] was elected as the party’s leader. Born into a poor Pashtun family in 1917 in the Muqur district of Ghazni province, Tarakay was a schoolteacher with a background in social activism, mainly in rural Afghanistan. Babrak Karmal, a former student protest leader and son of a lieutenant general in the Afghan Army with ties to a branch of the monarchy and who was 12 years younger than Tarakay, was seated as his deputy. Both men would later become head of state, the latter directly instated by Soviet troops (more on this later).
From the outset, the party had ambitious goals. It published its first party programme in its short-lived newspaper, Khalq(The People), in 1966. The programme defined its primary political aim as the “establishment of a national democratic government” composed of “the national progressive democratic and patriotic forces, ie the working class, peasants and the national bourgeoisie.”[8] It clearly saw itself as part of, if not leading, this government. In Marxist-Leninist theory, a ’national democratic’ revolution constituted the first ‘stage theory’ of revolutionary change toward socialism. This was underscored by Tarakay when he described the PDPA as “the Party of workers and peasants,” representing “95 per cent” of the Afghan population, in his inaugural speech at the Party’s founding congress.[9]
While the PDPA avoided using Marxist-Leninist terminology in public and did not call itself Marxist or communist, there was little doubt about the party’s driving ideology internally. As Tarakay, in his 1965 speech at the congress, alluded: “Our party is the party of the working class … [it] struggles in conformance with the epoch-making ideology of the workers.” Furthermore, the PDPA defined itself in its 1966 programme as being part of the “struggle between world socialism and world imperialism, which was started by the [1917] Great Socialist October Revolution” in Russia.
At the time, none of the founders could have imagined that, 13 years later, the PDPA would be in power, shaking Afghanistan’s political and social foundations. While the 1978 coup d’état that brought the PDPA to power was not the first successful coup in Afghanistan’s history, it is the one that plunged the country into turmoil, setting into motion a series of events that reshaped Afghanistan’s future and fashioned its relations with the rest of the world for decades to come.
The PDPA’s early years – two factions and two coups
The PDPA did not arrive out of the blue on Afghanistan’s political landscape. The 1963 constitution opened the way for various political groups across the spectrum to engage in public activities, ranging from pro-royalist to leftist movements and from Islamists to ethno-nationalists. The rapid growth of the educated class resulted in profound changes in Afghanistan’s social fabric, which in turn resulted from Amanullah’s reforms in the 1920s. These reforms, which were not adequately embedded due to the stagnating, corrupt state bureaucracy that dominated until 1964 by the extended royal clan, led to the country’s educated youth turning into a fertile recruitment ground for political activism.
Some of these groups, particularly those on the left, saw themselves in the tradition of earlier modernists and reformists. The PDPA later referred to Afghanistan reclaiming its full independence under Amanullah in 1919 as the beginning of the struggle for the country’s “dispossessed and downtrodden” against “despotism and reactionary forces.” The elder statesman among those activists was historian Mir Ghulam Muhammad Ghobar, a former official in Amir Amanullah’s government. Tarakay and Karmal were activists in the Wesh Zalmian/Jawanan-e Bedar (Awakened Youth) movement, which was active during a brief period of guarded political liberalisation during the premiership of Shah Mahmud Khanbetween 1947 and 1952.
The Wesh Zalmian movement had been motivated by the country’s “poverty and backwardness.” These two terms came up again in the 1966 PDPA party programme, where they were attributed to the “feudal system” the party vowed to abolish.[10] Poverty and backwardness were the two major domestic factors underpinning the mobilisation of reformist political groups (see also AAN’s report How It All Began: A short look at the pre-1979 origins of Afghanistan’s conflict).
A few years after the Wesh Zalmiyan movement was suppressed, the reformists who had not been incarcerated began to cautiously regroup. An “initial nucleus” emerged in 1963 from the mahfels, which soughtto set up a broad-based United National Front of Afghanistan, Lyakhovsky noted. In addition, Iskandarov writes of a meeting that took place on 17 Sunbula 1342 (8 September 1963) in the house of writer R.M. Herawi,[11] with the participation of Tarakay, Karmal, Mir Akbar Khaibar, Taher Badakhshi, Karim Misaq, Muhammad Seddiq Ruhi, Ali Muhammad Zahma and Ghobar. This meeting, he writes, resulted in the establishment of a provisional committee (komita-ye sarparast) for the Front. At this time, there was also contact with the social democrats led by historian Mir Muhammad Seddiq Farhang and Hadi Mahmudi’s Maoist group, he notes.[12]
Ultimately, the Front fell victim to “the differences between Karmal and Ghubar about political and organisational matters,” according to Iskandarov. Ghobar wanted to continue to act within the framework of the new constitution and the constitutional monarchy, and feared a party that would base itself on openly “communist ideology” (as Karmal seemed to prefer) would soon face “terror” from the government’s side, he wrote. This position seemed to have been shared by the social democrats, who dropped out of discussions, while the Maoists remained.[13]
When the Front failed, a narrower, more revolutionary-minded group, including Tarakay, Karmal, Khaibar, Badakhshi and the Maoists, came together to establish the PDPA, but the latter two soon dropped out – the Maoists left the group during the congress and Badakhshi, who prioritised the ‘national [ethnic] question’, above the PDPA’s class question, as being the main fault line in Afghanistan also left and went on to establish his own organisation, Settam-e Melli ([Against]National Oppression), in 1968.[14]
The PDPA’s unity proved to be fragile, and in 1967, only two years after it came into existence, the party split into two main factions – Khalq (The People) and Parcham (The Banner) – named after the party’s short-lived newspapers.[15] Analysts attribute the split to either ethnic factors, suggesting that Khalq was dominated by Pashtuns, while the Parchamis were mainly Tajiks or Farsi/Dari speakers; or to tactical or personal differences between the leaders of both factions. In reality, it was a combination of all three, with the ‘ethnic’ factor being more of a social one. Notably, many Parcham leaders (such as Karmal and later Najibullah) were Pashtuns, too.[16] But they belonged to a more urban milieu, some even with links to the regime, both the monarchy and later to Daud’s republic (1973-78). The teacher-dominated Khalq, in contrast, was based in a more rural milieu.[17]
PDPA members, including Babrak Karmal, Mir Akbar Khaibar and Suleiman Layeq, stood before a banner bearing the names of both PDPA factions, Parcham and Khaq. Source: Afghanwrites via Wikimedia Commons
Both Parcham and Khalq separately infiltrated the military and built clandestine networks. Initially, Parcham proved to be more successful, with officers linked to it playing key roles in Afghanistan’s first military coup, led by Sardar (Prince) Muhammad Daud, who belonged to the monarchy and served as prime minister from 1953 to 1963. During his decade-long premiership, Daud initiated vast modernisation programmes, but his political ambitions were disrupted by the 1963 constitution, which excluded members of the royal family from holding political positions. By 1973, the monarchy had manoeuvred itself into a legitimacy crisis because of its inadequate response to the drought of 1969–72, the country’s first large-scale environmental crisis. The Daud-led coup succeeded without much resistance from the armed forces or the public.
Daud, however, sidelined his erstwhile Parchami allies in 1975 and 1976,[18] and the PDPA set out to remove him from power through their surviving networks in the military. In 1977, prompted by the Soviet Union and with mediation by the Iraqi and Indian communist parties and leaders of the leftist, mainly Pashtun, National Awami Party (NAP) in Pakistan,[19] Parcham and Khalq formally reunited (although their military networks remained separate).
These military networks played a decisive role when, on 17 April 1978, Mir Akbar Khaibar, Parcham’s main ideologue and a military officer himself, was assassinated.[20] The question of who Khaibar’s assassins were is hotly debated to this day. Some claim it was Daud’s intelligence services, while others point to Amin himself, who, they argue, hit two birds with one stone: getting rid of an influential, popular rival and taking over both factions’ PDPA military apparatus.[21]
The party was able to mobilise large crowds for his funeral procession, which turned into powerful protests. Daud’s regime cracked down, arresting almost the entire PDPA leadership. Only one leader, the leader of Khalq’s military wing, Hafizullah Amin, would initially escape. This gave Amin time, according to the Party’s account, to trigger the 7 Saur 1357 (27 April 1978) coup d’état, with support from a group of young PDPA-aligned military officers, some of them trained in the Soviet Union, who had also been involved in Daud’s 1973 coup.[22]
Frontpage of Kabul Now newspaper after the 1978 Saur Revolution. Source: Thomas Ruttig’s archive
Although the 1978 military coup was not triggered, or accompanied, by a popular uprising, the PDPA dubbed it the ‘Saur Revolution’, so named after the month in the Persian solar calendar in which it occurred. On 27 April, troops based at Kabul International Airport started an assault on the city, including an air raid on the Presidential palace (Arg), seizing control of state institutions and communication infrastructure. Daoud was executed the next day along with most of his family. Two days after the coup, the ruling Revolutionary Military Council handed power over to Tarakay and the PDPA, who established a civilian government. Tarakay called the coup a shortcut to “the people of Afghanistan’s destiny,” circumventing the ‘national-democratic’ stage and going directly to the ‘dictatorship of the proletariat’ under the leadership of its party to which the PDPA claimed to be.
This was echoed in the lyrics of the national anthem written by Suleiman Layeq, who had himself had several tenures in the PDPA leadership, even though he had been repeatedly sidelined. Verse 2 of the anthem, which was in use in use from 1978 to 1992, reads:
The military takeover initially succeeded without much resistance from the armed forces and with little bloodshed. In fact, there had been some public outpouring of support, at least in Kabul. (The PDPA, on occasion, had proven capable of mobilising public rallies, for example, at the annual 1 May Labour Day.)
Encouraged by this, the PDPA established a one-party state, imitating the countries of the Soviet bloc, dropping its rhetorical commitment to a ‘broad front of all progressive forces.’ It embarked on a radical reforms programme to abolish feudalism, including land reform, the cancellation of debt, equal rights for women and coeducation. It began to use Marxist terminology more openly and replaced the country’s tricolour flag with the red flag of its party. At Kabul International Airport, a signboard greeted visitors with the slogan: “Welcome to the country of the second model revolution” (only preceded by Lenin’s 1917 October Revolution in Russia), proclaiming the PDPA government nothing less than the model for revolutionary change in the Third World.
All this was deemed as ‘anti-Islamic’ in parts of the still overly religiously conservative population, leading to – apparently – at first spontaneous local uprisings, when revolutionary cadres suppressed resistance against the practical implementation of reform measures with violent means. Cadres, often teachers, were killed by rebels, and schools burned down. It is difficult to gauge who started the violence, but it quickly escalated and the regime carried out mass repressions.
A new outbreak of factionalism fuelled the PDPA leadership’s paranoia. The Khalqis accused the Parchamis of plotting against them in the summer of 1978. By November that year, their most important leaders had either been imprisoned or sent abroad as ambassadors (most of whom quickly abandoned their positions to go into exile). Some were arrested and put in Kabul’s Pul-e Charkhi prison, and some were sentenced to death. The PDPA officially declared five political groups as enemies: Parchamis, the Islamists, the Maoists and Settamis, the Pashtun ethno-nationalists of the Afghan Mellat party and independent intellectuals. Many people who belonged to those categories – or were perceived to do so – were arrested, killed or ‘disappeared’, sometimes with their whole families. Torture and massacres of civilians in rebel areas were widespread. All the former elites – mullahs, landlords, and intellectuals – became targets. Even school children were killed and arrested when they participated in, or even watched, street protests.
Photographs of some of the 5,000 victims forcibly disappeared by the PDPA government placed close to Pul-e Charkhi prison in Kabul where many mass graves have been discovered. Photo: Maina Abbasi, December 2016
Some PDPA cadres seemed to have been inspired by the Khmer Rouge (or Stalin) playbook, trying to physically ‘eliminate’ the ‘oppressor class.’ An elder from Uruzgan province related to the author in 2008 how local PDPA cadres invited local tribal elders to a jirga to discuss matters, arrested and tied them up with ropes, and flew them out by helicopter, never to return (read more about in this AAN report by AAN guest author, Patricia Gossman).
Splits also emerged among the Khalqis, driven by Hafizullah Amin, who had not been among the PDPA founders but had cultivated a close relationship with Tarakay after returning from studies in the US. After the April coup, he became deputy party leader and deputy prime minister. In mid-September 1979, Amin sidelined Tarakay and took over as the head of the party and the state. He had Tarakay assassinated three weeks later, on 8 October. Whether this was about political differences or pure ambition for power is unclear. Initially, Amin accused Tarakay of being responsible for the mass arrests and murders, but the repression only increased under Amin’s rule and the resistance spread and coalesced into various factions of the mujahedin. The Islamists were able to secure more and more funding and arms from the West, Arab countries, Pakistan, Iran and China, while the secular factions were sidelined. Whole army units and garrisons mutinied and joined the rebels.
In the context of the ongoing Cold War, which had reached a peak in the 1970s with the US defeat in Vietnam, the success or at least progress of liberation movements and leftist coups in Africa, the Middle East and Central America (the Soviet Union even tried to embrace the ‘anti-imperialist’ Islamic revolution in Iran), Afghanistan’s internal conflicts, which were basically about modernisation, were internationalised. For more than four decades now, Afghans have endured repeated cycles of internal conflict and war.
The Soviet invasion
Over the Christmas period in 1979, Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan, apparently to rescue the troubled PDPA government. It was ‘rescued’ (for another 13 years) and was significantly altered in the process. The Soviets overthrew and killed Amin on 27 December. They installed the Parcham faction in his place as part of an alliance with some former Khalqi officers that Amin had sidelined, with Karmal as head of party and state.
The Soviet Union, although initially wary of the notoriously divided PDPA, had nevertheless become its key backer. It usually only recognised one communist party per country, and bilateral party relations remained low-key. Several analysts have suggested that while Moscow was ready to live with the Daud regime despite some bilateral hiccups, the PDPA presented the Soviets with a fait accompli when it took power in the 1978 coup. Moscow did not want to see its allies fail. Additionally, then-party leader Leonid Brezhnev had apparently developed personal sympathies for Tarakay. When Amin had him killed, the Soviets’ patience with Amin, who had also proven himself a turbulent ally – with rumours that he was about to make a deal with the militant Islamist opposition and Pakistan, his possible CIA links and his outreach to the US embassy in Kabul – ran out.
Nur Muhammad Tarakay meets with Leonid Brezhnev in Moscow in 1978. Source: Janet Geissmann via Pintrest
The Soviet leadership believed Parcham to be closer to their own interests, less radical and possibly – with Moscow’s support – capable of ensuring that instability could be contained at the USSR’s southern border. As it turned out, Soviet troops did not leave after a short time, as had apparently been the initial plan, rather they remained and were increasingly actively drawn into counter-insurgency operations, contributing to the further escalation of fighting and further internationalisation of Afghanistan’s internal woes, with Western, Arab, Pakistani, Iranian and Chinese support for the insurgents, and drawing in thousands of foreign jihadists who established a worldwide movement active to this day.
Initially, in the last days of 1979 and the first ones of 1980, there were jubilant scenes – reminiscent of what we have recently been able to observe in Syria – when the new government opened prison doors and thousands of incarcerated enemies, real or imagined, of the previously ruling Khalq faction were set free (the government-controlled media of the time reported that 15,000 people had been released).[23]
After the Soviet invasion, the Parchamis reciprocated internal purges of the party that the Khalqis had carried out. They even executed Tarakay and Amin’s alleged killers, whom they claimed had been sentenced to death by a military court. (In fact, Amin was shot dead by Soviet special forces.)[24]In contrast, most Parchami leaders had survived jail under the Khalqis. This perpetuated the split between the two factions.
Soviet support and troops, initially moving in for only a short mission, were unable to quell the resistance and became increasingly involved in their own version of ‘mission creep’, taking over more and more fighting and governance functions. The intelligence state, with sham trials and executions, became more systemic. Both Soviet and Afghan government forces carried out indiscriminate bombings in the countryside, resulting in mass casualties and forced displacement of five million Afghans to Iran and Pakistan. Soviet troops stayed for ten years. The mujahedin did not shy away from using the most egregious forms of violence against civilians who sided with the regime.
Gorbachev, Yeltsin and Najibullah: withdrawal
By the mid-1980s, the Soviet leadership – particularly under Mikhail Gorbachev (1985-91) – realised they were fighting an unwinnable war. The country’s involvement in Afghanistan had impacted the ailing Soviet economy and stood in the way of disarmament and its détente with the West. Then-Soviet foreign minister, Eduard Shevardnadze, called the Soviet war in Afghanistan a “festering wound.”
Gorbachev replaced Karmal with Najibullah as Afghanistan’s head of state and party, and in 1985 and 1986, compelled him to introduce his own versions of perestroika and glasnost.[25] The overarching aim was to put the Kabul regime on its own feet economically and militarily, withdraw Soviet troops and cut costs at home. Attempts were made to end the war through negotiations with the mujahedin under the title of siasat-e ashti-ye melli (policy of national reconciliation). Among other measures, in 1990, Najibullah renamed the PDPA Hezb-e Watan (Homeland Party), dropped most of the party’s leftist symbols and politics and established a half-baked multi-party system and (still heavily manipulated) elections (see AAN’s backgrounder). According to Najibullah, it had been “a historic mistake” to come under “a specific ideology.” In its new programme, Hezb-e Watancommitted itself to a “democracy based on a multi-party system.” However, almost all the PDPA leadership was transferred to the new party.
It proved to be too little too late. Aside from splinter groups that had emerged, the mujahedin spurned the talks, preferring not to talk about sharing power with the PDPA but instead opting for an all-out victory.
Najibullah‘s government held out against the mujahedin for another three years after the last Soviet troops withdrew in February 1989. Its downfall came only in 1992 when Yeltsin cut the Soviet Union’s funding and various pro-PDPA militia leaders switched sides to the emerging winners. A Parcham sub-faction toppled Najibullah (himself a Parchami) and handed power over to the mujahedin, who would enter Kabul and take the reins without a fight.
These were not the last words on the PDPA, though. At various times thereafter, there were attempts to revive it by reuniting the diverse parties and factions founded by former members of the disintegrated PDPA/Watan Party in the country or in exile. None of them succeeded, leading to further splits between former Parchamis and Khalqis, between Tarakists and Aminists (who say he was a real patriot because he opposed the Soviets – after all, he was killed by them), between Karmalists and Najibists, the former saying that ‘national reconciliation’ was a betrayal of the ‘revolution’ and the latter insisting that it was the only way to peace. At times, there were at least 25 registered parties – and even more unregistered ones – that went back to PDPA’s origins. The name PDPA itself was never used again, although there was an attempt in the early 2000s to establish a party with a name close to the original one, which was prevented by the Ministry of Justice’s party registration office, saying the ban dating back to the mujahedin times was still valid.
To this day, even though all parties are banned in Afghanistan itself, various groups with roots in or affinity with the PDPA remain active among the diaspora.[26]
The ‘Sovietisation’ of Afghanistan
There is an ongoing, albeit diminishing, debate surrounding the alleged ‘Sovietisation’ of Afghanistan and who the driving force behind it was: the Soviets or the PDPA?
A particular point of view here is the reluctance on the part of the Soviets to engage with the divided PDPA prior to 1978. Sources indicate there were varying approaches among the Soviet intelligence services (KGB, GPU), the party, and various ministries. It is also possible that certain officials acted on their initiative in the Afghan hinterlands that did not seem to be a political priority in Moscow – or that the CPSU or certain Soviet intelligence services used them tactically to maintain a degree of ‘plausible deniability.’
During the Cold War, however, many Western authors broadly agreed that the USSR – after its military invasion in late 1979 – intended to ‘sovietise’ the Afghan regime and incorporate it into its worldwide system. One of them, Anthony Arnold, even considered that “by the close of 1979, the PDPA no longer ruled Afghanistan; the CPSU [Communist Party of the Soviet Union] did.”[27] Indeed, the Soviet party leadership had established a powerful Afghan task force on the level of its Polit Bureau in October 1979, and had dramatically increased its number of military and civilian advisors.
Artemy Kalinovsky, Professor of Russian, Soviet, and Post-Soviet Studies and author of a number of books on Soviet engagement in Afghanistan, argued that Soviet advisors tried to caution Afghan party leaders against their revolutionary fervour. This Soviet exercise in nation-building “had little to do with the desire to spread communism [but was rather] … motivated by a desire to stop the deteriorating situation” in Afghanistan and prevent it from aligning itself with the US, he said. It was, he noted, “composed of ‘off the shelf’ components, not a master plan … founded on [Soviet/Marxist] ideas but improvised in practice.”[28]
Clearly, there were ideologues among the Soviets who dreamt of a worldwide victory of socialism. In their view, Afghanistan would be part of this. Others were sceptical about Afghanistan marching toward socialism under the PDPA. They often quoted Lenin, who had warned against exporting it to a southern neighbour. Initially, therefore, there was little Soviet enthusiasm about the PDPA, but after the party’s takeover, the Soviets thought they had to live with the situation. The mood swung when Amin came to power, and the leadership in Moscow made the fateful decision to intervene directly. When mission creep, caused by the lack of Afghan capacity or by corruption, had them take on more and more responsibility, all they knew was how to look at Afghanistan through a lens of ‘Soviet’ Central Asia. Methods employed there, such as coeducation or the unveiling of women, were copied in Afghanistan. (Although the PDPA, taking a page from the Soviet book, had started this before the invasion.)
At the same time, the PDPA had built its own party based on the Soviet model, a hierarchically led mass membership party that, when in power, took over and even largely replaced the structures of the state, including the armed forces. (By 1983, 60 per cent or more of all PDPA members served in the army and police.) When in trouble with the resistance, the PDPA realised it was fully dependent on Soviet support, financially and militarily – and was, therefore, interested in presenting itself as a good student of Marxism-Leninism.[29] When the Soviets stepped in, a ‘Soviet’ framework was already in place and they were left with little choice but to follow its logic.
Many in the PDPA, at the same time, tacitly derided the Soviets, who took over more of the decision-making than they probably expected. They tried to manipulate them for opportunistic reasons, power or pure survival – or even undermined them actively, secretly cooperating with the mujahedin.
Despite the omnipresence of Soviet advisors – many of them ill-prepared to work in Afghanistan or to understand Afghans,[30] Afghan leaders were able to maintain space for independent manoeuvring and decision-making. The room for this was provided by the notoriously segmented Afghan structures, factionalism and political power games as well as the institutional and personal rivalries among the different groups of Soviet advisors. In effect, decision-making on the ground and, subsequently, political responsibility were shared between Afghans and Soviets. There was no Soviet domination.
What emerged was a classic case of a dialectical relationship in the Marxist sense, in which two mutually dependent actors impacted each other and created (often undesired) effects. In the end, it became clear, however, that Afghans were more dependent on the Soviets than the Soviets were on the Afghans. History later repeated itself with other actors.
The Soviet attempt to turn Afghanistan into another ‘Central Asian Republic’ lasted until 1986, when “the failure of their project drove them to prepare the ground for withdrawal and to push for the ‘policy of national reconciliation,’” as French author Gilles Dorronsoro wrote.[31]
In summary, the PDPA can be described as a wannabe communist party that from its establishment – not very openly, but clearly enough – declared its aim of being part of the Soviet-led ‘socialist world system.’ Before 1978, however, it was ideologically kept at arm’s length by the USSR and its allies. After the 1978 coup, however, once it became a ruling party, its overtures forced the USSR, bound to Brezhnev’s doctrine that revolutionary change must be ‘irreversible’, to support its regime.
The 1979 intervention had two contrary effects on the relationship between the PDPA and the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU): the PDPA followed a strategy of further expanding its copycat Soviet model to present itself as an indispensable ally while the Soviets, realising the social and political situation in Afghanistan was not ripe for socialist development, cautioned the PDPA in its ‘revolutionary’ development and, under Gorbachev, concentrated on withdrawal, ready to sacrifice their erstwhile ally.
Feminism and the PDPA
Despite the party’s contribution to plunging Afghanistan into four decades of war and destruction, as well as its responsibility for undoubted systematic human rights violations and war crimes, many of its members and sympathisers were driven by a genuine yearning for reform and modernisation. Sulaiman Layeq – who came from a leading religious family – said in a BBC Persian interview that it was the poverty he experienced in the tribal society of his childhood and the injustices during his school years that made him join the party. Soraya Parlika, a staunch feminist and communist PDPA member, hailed from an upper-class family. She was for many years the head of the PDPA-affiliated Democratic Women’s Organisation of Afghanistan (DWOA), which she said she established together with five other women as an independent organisation in June 1965, only six months after the founding of the PDPA. Parlika told the author: “My mother, mainly, often said that not all Afghans lived as comfortably as we did. That motivated me to engage politically.” She did so, despite her prominence after the fall of the PDPA, and stayed in Afghanistan, organising clandestine schools under the Taleban and continuing to do so after 2001.
Women in particular had considerably more rights, at least in urban areas and when not opposing the regime. The DWOA, before the PDPA took over, supported female victims of domestic violence, tried to mediate with families and helped women take their grievances to court. It organised literacy courses and tried to encourage women to seek employment and send their children to school. It mobilised women to take part in the 1965 parliamentary election, which Parlika was actively involved in, going to the countryside to teach women how to read and write. In 1968, she participated in demonstrations against a draft law proposed by conservative Islamic members to ban girls and women from travelling abroad to receive an education without a mahram. After a month of protests, including an occupation of the parliament, the bill was dropped.
During its period in power, the PDPA government – thanks in large part to the DWOA and Parlika’s work – extended maternity leave to 90 days, with an additional 180 days of unpaid leave. Women were legally allowed to retire at the age of 55. When Parlika passed away in December 2020, the Ministry of Justice’s website still showed the 1979 PDPA maternity leave law as still being in force. Parlika’s advocacy also resulted in the establishment of nursery schools and kindergartens in the workplace (see AAN’s obituary for Parlika).
Women marching in support of the PDPA. Source: nee1o via Instagram
These were big achievements, even though for women in the countryside and in mujahedin-controlled areas, these rights remained theoretical – resembling the situation post-2001. Nevertheless, these accomplishments left an indelible mark on the lives of Afghan women and continue to be valued to this day.
Conclusion
The PDPA, along with its predecessor Hezb-e Watan, existed for less than three decades. Few other indigenous political forces, however, have influenced Afghanistan’s modern history as significantly. One notable exception is King Amanullah, whose reforms, although officially halted in 1929, had lasting and sustainable impacts. The other influential forces—the mujahedin and the Taleban—emerged in part as a reaction to the PDPA’s modernist reform programme, which was inspired by the Soviet Union. Their ideological roots can also be traced back to Amanullah’s opponents (see, for example, AAN’s report about the Khost Rebellion of 1924).
The Soviet invasion and occupation of Afghanistan not only dealt a final blow to any support the PDPA once had among segments of Afghan society but also led to its demise as a recognisable political force. The debate surrounding the events that unfolded after the PDPA was established 60 years ago continues not only among Afghans but also in academia as people continue to explore the underlying causes of these events and the role the Soviets had in influencing them.
Whether the PDPA’s founding in 1965 and its takeover of power in 1978 were initiated by the Soviet Union with full-fledged support from the CPSU is questionable, at least from this author’s perspective. What is certain is that the PDPA soon ran into resistance, and violence escalated on all sides. Even for those who have been engaged with Afghanistan and its people, it is still difficult to explain where the staggering level of violence – mass killings, institutionalised torture and widespread repression – that emerged on all sides in the conflict originated from.
Many of those involved in the PDPA in key positions, including Layeq and Parlika, never publicly spoke out against the atrocities committed by their party while it was in power. Some former PDPA officials even insisted, officially, that after their time in power, things took an even nastier turn under the mujahedin and the Taleban, particularly when it came to women’s rights. Many regularly quote late-President Najibullah’s warnings against the ascent of Islamists. One former PDPA Central Committee member told the author: “I am proud of my past because I was always in the service of the people.”
Indeed, there is a growing number of non-PDPA Afghans who praise, in hindsight, some aspects of the PDPA government. A sympathiser of the late Ahmad Shah Massud once told the author: “There were only two real leaders in Afghanistan’s history: Sardar Daud and Najib,” alluding to their perceived ability to ‘effect change’. A member of the leftist armed opposition to the PDPA regime told the author that he later ‘regretted’ having taken up arms against it, witnessing the reactionary politics that followed after its overthrow.
Sixty years on, the book on the PDPA and its legacy is still being written. As it currently stands, it is important to reflect on the momentous events that have brought us to this day in Afghanistan’s history, to acknowledge the atrocities that were perpetrated in the name of the Afghan people and the immense suffering they have endured and continue to endure. It is, however, important to take stock of the country’s achievements over the past six decades in the face of enormous challenges, and to consider the Afghan people’s quest for a better future. The PDPA may be gone for good but current developments in Afghanistan indicate that the struggle between the forces of modernism and those who oppose it is far from over.
Edited by Roxanna Shapour
References
References
↑1
Most sources name only those seven who were elected full members of the party’s Central Committee: Nur Muhammad Tarakay, Babrak Karmal, Tahir Badakhshi, Ghulam Dastagir Panjshiri, Shahrullah Shahpar, Sultan Ali Keshtmand and Dr Saleh Muhammad Zeray as well as the four alternate members — Dr Shah Wali, Karim Misaq, Dr Abdul Zaher Ufoq and Abdul Wahab Safi. A full list of all 27 founding members is given in Sayed Mohammad Baqer Mesbahzadeh’s book Aghaz wa Farjam-e Jombeshha-ye Siasi dar Afghanistan (The Beginning and End of Political Movements in Afghanistan, Kabul 1384-2005). In addition to the eleven already mentioned, they include: Nur Ahmad Nur, Dr Muhammad Zahir Dzadran, [Muhammad] Akram [or Alam] Kargar, Suleiman Layeq, Sayed Abdul Hakim Shar’i Jawzjani, Adam Khan Dzadzai, Mullah Muhammad Isa Kargar, Engineer Khaliar, Wakil Abdullah Dzadzai, Abdul Qayum Qayum, Atta Mohammad Sherzai, Ghulam Mohiuddin Zarmalwal, Hadi Karim, Abdul Hakim Hilal, Mohammad Hassan Baraq Shafe’i and Sayed Nurullah Kalali.
↑2
According to Soviet/Russian writer and former general, Alexander Antonovich Lyakhovsky, the PDPA founding congress took place “with the direct assistance of the [Communist Party of the Soviet Union] CPSU”, see Alexander Lyakhovsky, Tragediya I Doblest Afgana (Afghans’ Tragedy and Valor), Moscow 1995. Many others also have emphasised a Soviet role in this event. It is possible that some people in the Soviet embassy in Kabul were aware of, or even actively supported, attempts to first establish the United Front and later the PDPA. Tarakay, according to Lyachovsky, officially visited Moscow for the first time in December 1965, meeting only mid-ranking officials in the CPSU Central Committee. However, according to the late-Soviet/Russian Afghanistan specialist, Vladimir Plastun, who was an advisor to Najibullah in the late 1980s, Tarakay had in fact reached out earlier, when visiting Moscow as early as in 1962, in his capacity as a writer (which he was). According to Plastun, he also met a Central Committee official. After his visit, an interview with him appeared in a Ukrainian literary magazine, which Plastun was later unable to locate (information from conversations with the author).
↑3
There was also a brief period of political activity between 1947 and 1952, which saw the emergence of opposition groups, a proliferation of media, and even somewhat pluralistic elections before Afghanistan reverted to a more autocratic form of government (for more details, see this AAN report).
↑4
In his book Polititschekie Partii i Dwizhenie Afganistana wo wtoroi polowine XX veka (Political Parties and Movements of Afghanistan in the Second Half of the 20th Century), Dushanbe, 2004, which this author was able to consult in Tajikistan.
↑5
See also this declassified US Department of State Air Gram about “The Afghan Left” available in the George Washington University archives.
↑6
Neither did he remember whether later party chief Najibullah was among them. He was then 17 years old and had just started studying at Kabul University in 1964.
↑7
This is the correct Pashto transliteration. In most non-Afghan literature, his name is spelled Taraki.
↑8
Khalq’s 1966 party programme, from a German translation in: Karl-Heinrich Rudersdorf, Afghanistan – eine Sowjetrepublik?, Reinbek 1980, pp 142-149.
↑9
Quoted from a German translation in: Wolfram Brönner, ‘Afghanistan: Revolution und Konterrevolution’, Frankfurt 1980, pp 165-172.
↑10
Interestingly, in 1971, Jonathan Neale observed a PDPA-inspired student protest in Lashkargah under the slogan ‘death to the khans!’, see the Encyclopaedia of Trotskyism.
↑11
Iskandarov did not provide Herawi’s first name.
↑12
According to this author’s information, Ghobar continued to participate in preparations for the PDPA establishment but dropped out later, some say for ideological reasons – he did not want a Soviet-style party. Others cite the fact that he was staying in Germany in 1965 when the PDPA was founded. Plastun told this author that some ‘Maoists’ also attended the congress but withdrew before the PDPA was founded.
↑13
It was not clear whether Ghobar’s and Farhang’s circles were separate or one; both had cooperated with reformist Watan newspaper and its attempt (which led to its ban) to establish a ‘Watan Party’ during the Wesh Zalmian period. In 1990, the Farhang family protested Najibullah’s choice of Hezb-e Watan for the rebranded PDPA.
↑14
This was the group’s main political slogan, not its official name, but the phrase took hold as its public moniker.
↑15
Khalq was the PDPA’s original newspaper, but it was banned after only six issues were published between April and May 1966 as it appeared too closely associated with a political party that had not yet been legalised. Parcham was published between March 1968 and July 1969 (or even 1970, according to some sources).
↑16
Karmal’s ethnicity, as a Pashtun, is a matter of debate, with some sources speculating that his family were Dari-speaking Kabulis who had originally emigrated to Afghanistan from Kashmir, which was once an Afghan possession (see, for example, Hassan Kakar’s book ‘The Soviet Invasion and the Afghan Response, 1979-1982’, on the University of California E-book collection website). Karmal himself was never keen to dwell on his own ethnic background.
↑17
Karmal and Khaibar were personally acquainted with Sardar Daud. In Karmal’s case, this went back to the period of the Wesh Zalmiyan. An association that Daud, for a while, attempted to coopt into his own political vehicle against other factions/branches within the monarchy. Karmal’s father was still a general in Daud’s republic. His unofficial partner (he was married to Mahbuba Karmal) and later education minister, Anahita Ratebzad, even had roots in Amanullah’s family. This probably made them more reluctant to plan to overthrow him. More on the Khalq-Parcham tactical differences and related issues in this interesting 2023 International Research Centre DDR (IF DDR) interview with Matin Baraki, as an early PDPA activist and now a professor in Germany.
↑18
Two cabinet ministers from the Khalq faction, Zeray and Panjshiri, lost their positions. Daud’s decision to weaken the Parchami faction may have been influenced by his desire to form a closer alliance with the Shah of Iran and the United States. Additionally, this decision could have been motivated by increasing suspicions regarding the activities of radical militant groups, particularly due to the growing infiltration of army ranks by PDPA (mainly Khalqi) cells. This situation was further complicated after several Islamist organizations attempted an uprising in the summer of 1975, which ultimately failed.
↑19
The National Awami Party, or NAP (National People’s Party), not to be confused with the Awami National Party (ANP), was a leftwing political party in Pakistan founded in Dakha (present-day Bangladesh) in 1957.
↑20
According to Lyachovsky, a coup was planned for August 1978. Layeq claimed in an interview with ToloNews on 24 April 2018 that a coup had never been discussed or planned within the party, and that this was a personal decision by Amin. Layeq, however, was a Parchami and the faction seemed to have preferred peaceful means, while – again, according to Lyachovsky – the Khalqis generally favoured a coup and went ahead without Parcham.
↑21
Another source told the author that, in a third version, he had later heard Hezb-e Islami claim the killing. Names were even named. Chris Sands also references this in Night Letters, Hurst & Co 2019, p 444, citing a speech given by Hezb-e Islami’s leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, to commemorate the eighteenth anniversary of the Muslim Youth’s establishment on April 2, 1987 (available on YouTube).
↑22
Russian author, Nikita Andreevich Mendkovich, of the Center for the Study of Contemporary Afghanistan (CISA), quotes a Soviet advisor who worked at the Afghan defence ministry in 1978 in a 2010 article: “PDPA functionaries later admitted that they had deliberately concealed information about the planned coup from their Soviet allies, citing the fact that ‘Moscow could have dissuaded them from this action due to the absence of a revolutionary situation in the country.’” He also provides details on how the military officers who implemented the coup had made their decision during a meeting at Kabul Zoo.
Several other Khalqi leaders received long-term prison sentences and were only released by President Najibullah in the second half of the 1980s. Some of them were reinstated to government posts or appointed to roles in the newly established National Fatherland Front – an attempt to broaden the regime’s basis and to appeal to the Khalq membership, which still made up the majority of PDPA members in both the army and the police.
↑25
Despite often being named ‘Muhammad Najibullah’ or ‘Najibullah Ahmadzai’ – the latter version signifying his tribal affiliation – he himself used ‘Najib’ or ‘Najibullah’, or ‘Dr Najib’ or ‘Dr Najibullah’. The author was present in Kabul during part of his rule in 1988-89, and this fact was also confirmed to him by Najibullah’s own family. The story of the change from Karmal to Najibullah was told to the author by the late Suleiman Layeq, a prominent PDPA activist (and, in fact, Hezb-e Watan’s last leader – see AAN’s obituary for Layeq).
↑26
Amin’s supporters, for example, still gather in the diaspora and maintain the ‘Hafizullah Amin Ideological and Cultural Foundation, as The Diplomat reported in 2019, referencing a video of an event to commemorate Amin, which is no longer available online.
↑27
Anthony Arnold, ‘Afghanistan’s Two-Party Communism: Parcham and Khal, California: Stanford University, 1983 p 99.
↑28
Artemy Kalinovsky, ‘The Blind Leading the Blind: Soviet Advisors, Counter-Insurgency and Nation-Building in Afghanistan, Washington, D.C: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2010, Working Paper No. 60, January 2010.
↑29
In a 1985 speech on the occasion of the PDPA’s 20th anniversary, Karmal went as far as calling the PDPA “the new [Leninist] typus party of the proletariat and all working people of the country” the aim of which was to build “the Afghan society on the basis of socialism.”
↑30
Kalinovsky, ‘The Blind Leading the Blind’.
↑31
Gilles Dorronsoro, ‘Revolution Unending: Afghanistan, 1979 to the Present’, New York: Columbia University Press in association with the Centre d’études et de recherches internationales, Paris, 2005, p 173.
Between Reform and Repression: The 60th anniversary of the PDPA
A hundred years ago, tribes led by local mullahs in the area around the town of Khost in southeastern Afghanistan rose up against King Amanullah and his modernisation programme. These events became known as the ‘Khost’ or ‘Mangal’ Rebellion, named after the region where it erupted and the Pashtun tribe that was first to revolt. At one point, the rebels proclaimed their own amir. Twice, they came close to threatening Afghanistan’s capital. Amanullah’s government mobilised lashkars – traditional irregular groups of armed men – among other Pashtun tribes and ethnic groups. By the end of 1924, Amanullah’s forces were finally able to suppress the rebellion: its mullah leaders were publicly executed in May 1925, while the rebel pretender to the throne managed to flee. On its centenary, this themed report brings together two reports on the Khost Rebellion. The first, by AAN’s Thomas Ruttig, looks at the events of the revolt and the interpretations given to it by historians. The second, by guest author German historian David X Noack, focuses on the role of Britain and Germany during the revolt, based on newly tapped archival sources.
Illustration: Payne, W. H. Letts’s bird’s eye view of the approaches to India. [London: Letts, Son & Co. 19–?], 1900, Map. Library of Congress https://www.loc.gov/item/2006636637/You can preview the report online and download it by clicking here or the download button below.
The 1920s represent a momentous period in the history of Afghanistan. For long decades, the country had been shut to both major internal socio-economic developments and the outside world. This had come as a consequence of the competition between the Russian and British empires, as well as an internal status quo enforced by Afghan monarchs dependent on subsidies from and peaceful relations with the colonial powers. The scenario was suddenly altered by the ascent to power of a group of more dynamic policymakers centred around the figure of Amir Amanullah, from whose reign (1919-29) this period came to be known as the Amani era.
This period was marked by increased government attempts at radically transforming the country and by the reactions against its project. In more recent times, Amanullah has been identified with the struggle for both national independence (by Afghan governments and rebels of all leanings) and modernisation (by reformist-minded Afghans from liberals to leftists).
However, if some features of the Amani era have, in due time, turned into widely-referenced symbols in Afghan politics, the relevance of this decade’s events to an understanding of the more recent vicissitudes experienced by Afghanistan has never been appreciated enough. This may be due to the fact that it is separated from the political upheavals and conflicts that have shaken the country since the mid-1970s by forty years of comparative stability – largely coinciding with Zaher Shah’s reign (1933-1973). Those forty years have often been portrayed as a ‘golden age’ of peace and prosperity under the cloak of a timeless ‘tradition’ by those, Afghans and foreigners, keen to point to a widely acceptable model to which the country could return. Under the pacified surface, however, the tensions and fault lines that first emerged during the Amani decade never disappeared completely.
During the past five, more recent, decades of turmoil, references to the Amani era have usually been limited to assessing contemporary forces at play in Afghanistan’s political arena and then identifying them with the two ‘camps’ that first emerged in the 1920s – secular reformists vs religious fundamentalists. However, besides the clash between secular and religious leaderships and the competition between state law and sharia, there are other relevant aspects from that era which deserve attention.
During Amanullah’s reign and in its aftermath, issues came to the fore which were to prove central for any subsequent Afghan government. These included: the challenges of developing and funding an efficient state machinery and acquiring a monopoly on violence; the need for foreign economic support and the quest for political independence; the risk that centralisation turns into the imposition of political hegemony by one group over others and that local elites, in turn, defend their power and prerogatives in the name of resisting state oppression. Moreover, Afghanistan’s international relations, which were boosted by Amanullah after he wrested control of the country’s foreign affairs from the British in 1919, started then to become an important arena for the Afghan government to manoeuvre politically and seek economic opportunities. In these years, Afghanistan’s diplomatic relations became a sensitive, multi-polar international matter, calling for the attention and involvement of a greater number of nations across the world.
These issues, recurring nowadays under different circumstances, make it all the more important to look back at all the episodes of that decade, not just the most known and debated. As part of its attempts to understand today’s Afghanistan, AAN has always been keen to return to past events and assess their lasting significance. Likewise, we are happy now to present these two contributions, brought together in a themed report, on a lesser known but pivotal episode of Afghan history on the occasion of its centenary: the Khost rebellion of 1924, which was the first major challenge faced by the reformist project of an Afghan government.
You can preview the report online and download it by clicking here or the download button below.
Before the 7 October 2023 attacks by Hamas on Israel and Israel’s continuing war in Gaza, the relationship of the Islamic Emirate towards Hamas could be described as cordial, but not actively supportive. AAN’s Thomas Ruttig (with input from Roxanna Shapour) wanted to look at whether this standpoint has changed since those attacks. By combing through official statements and Afghan media reporting, he has explored the dynamics at play and the context. His report starts with one of the key events of this year, the assassination, likely by Israel, of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in neighbouring Iran, on 31 July 2024 when he came to Tehran to see the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.Acting Deputy Prime Minister, Abdul Ghani Baradar, and Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, meet Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on the sidelines of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral. Photo: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, 23 May 2024
The Emirate on the assassination of Haniyeh
Kabul was among the few capitals to issue an official statement regarding the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The statement was released in the name of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), rather than from a specific entity or official, such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or IEA spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid. This may suggest that the supreme leader, Amir al-Mu’minin Hibatullah Akhundzada, likely approved it. Various Emirate-controlled media outlets, including the English-language government newspaper The Kabul Times, published the 267-word official statement on 1 August 2024 which expressed the government’s profound sorrow at his ‘martyrdom’.
Martyr Ismail Haniyeh was a distinguished, wise, and resolute Palestinian leader who made significant sacrifices in his successful struggle and Jihad, fulfilling his commitment in this manner. For a Muslim and a fighter, martyrdom represents a tremendous victory; he has succeeded and left behind a legacy of resistance, selflessness, patience, perseverance, struggle, and practical sacrifice for his followers.
The IEA statement is full of catchphrases central to the Taleban’s Islamist ideology, such as ‘mujahed’, ‘jihad’ and “martyrdom”: The “martyrdom of this great figure,” it said, was a “significant loss to the Islamic Ummah and the Jihadist cause” and “defending Hamas and the sacred land of Palestine” was “both an Islamic and humanitarian duty.”
The IEA strongly condemned the “atrocities, bombings, and genocide perpetrated by the Zionist regime against Palestinian Muslims as egregious crimes against humanity.” It makes no mention of the atrocities committed by Hamas during its 7 October 2023 attack on Israel. It also glosses over the presence of Christian Palestinians (now few in number in Gaza, but more, proportionally, in the West Bank, Israel and the diaspora), referring to the Palestinian people as Muslim only.[1] It called for action, although notably made no promises as to what Afghanistan could do:
We reiterate our call to influential parties, particularly within the Islamic and Arab world, to intensify their efforts to thwart the Zionist invasion and its associated atrocities. The ongoing crimes of the Zionist regime will undoubtedly lead to further instability in the region and its countries, with the resulting disturbances and adverse outcomes falling squarely on the shoulders of the invading Zionists and their supporters.
The statement did not explicitly call for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Whether this – and its avoidance of using the term ‘Israel’ in most statements indicates a tacit denial of Israel’s right to exist is difficult to answer.[2]
The Emirate’s response to Haniyeh’s assassination and several analyses by various media and median platforms that did not sound fully convincing or even biased led the author to want to delve deeper into its relationship with Hamas and its stance on Palestine/Israel in general. The analysis begins with the Emirate’s response to the 7 October attacks before looking back at relationship with Hamas before then. It then scrutinises how that relationship has developed.
The Emirate on Hamas/Palestine/Israel until October 2023 attacks
Until October 2023, little information was available regarding the relationship between the IEA and Hamas, even in specialised media outlets. However, shortly after Hamas attacked Israel, Afghan-born journalist Akram Dawi, working for the Voice of America (VoA), highlighted the “conspicuous silence of the senior Emirate official on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza” in an analytical article (see here). He noted that neither the Supreme Leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, nor acting Prime Minister, Mullah Muhammad Hassan, nor his three deputies had commented on the event, which he said was “in sharp contrast to the daily sharp comments from neighbouring Iran.” Dawi referenced (without direct quotes or cited sources) a statement posted on the social media platform X by the IEA’s chief spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahed, on 14 October, condemning “Israel’s siege of Gaza” and calling “on the international community to address the crisis.”
The IEA’s position on the issue, quoted in the Dawi article, was most pointedly summed up by acting Interior Minister Serajuddin Haqqani: “We do not interfere in others’ internal affairs, but we have faith-based sympathy with Muslims.” In short, the Emirate’s official messages were largely in line with “expressions of solidarity and support for the Palestinians” made by other Muslim countries, as Michael Kugelman of the US think tank Wilson Center told Dawi.
On key aspects, however, the statement clearly differs from the stated positions of other countries in the region, as pointed out by Shujauddin Amini, an author for the US-based Afghan news website Hasht-e Subh: “The Taliban did not call Hamas a liberation movement like the Turkish authorities, nor did they call Israel a usurper and infanticidal regime like the Islamic Republic of Iran. They also did not support the position of Saudi Arabia and Egypt in talking about the necessity of creating two countries in the pre-1967 borders.”
Sporadic contacts, no official relations
The Emirate does have official diplomatic relations with Hamas; their interactions, however, have mostly been limited to sporadic contacts and exchanges of greetings.
In August 2021, after the Emirate was re-established for the second time, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh called its deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani, also known as Baradar, to congratulate him on the “end of the US occupation,” as reported by the Turkish news agency Anadolu, citing the Hamas website. Haniyeh said the end of the United States occupation in Afghanistan was “a prelude to the demise of all occupation forces, foremost of which is the Israeli occupation of Palestine.” Baradar, for his part, thanked Haniyeh for his call and expressed his hope for a Palestinian “victory and empowerment as a result of their resistance.” He also conveyed his wishes for the “oppressed” Palestinian people to defeat their occupiers with God’s help and through their resistance. The Emirate also asserted that it was only able to defeat the USA “with God’s help,” see for example this speech by acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. He called on all countries to support the Palestinian cause.
A few weeks later, in early October 2021, Haniyeh called the Emirate again, as Anadolu reported. This time, he spoke to Muttaqi. He again praised the Taleban’s victory over the US, but also urged Muttaqi to keep the topic of Palestine present in his speeches, “especially Jerusalem and the ongoing [Israeli] violations there.” Haniyeh also expressed his hope that the Emirate “could have a role in supporting their brothers in Palestine to liberate Jerusalem,” according to the report. Anadolu reported that Haniyah “expressed his pride in the struggle of the Palestinian people and their steadfastness in Jerusalem,” but there was no indication of any promise of concrete support. This pointed to a cautious approach on the part of the Emirate to steer clear of a conflict far away from home and on the heels of their own victory in Afghanistan.
There have also been a few meetings between Emirate and Hamas officials. These were likely not the first such encounters and did not represent dedicated bilateral discussions, but were rather meetings as part of broader diplomatic or religious events. For example, in early October 2022, spokesman Mujahid met Hamas representatives, including Haniyeh, during a conference of Islamic scholars in Istanbul and reportedly discussed regional issues, including developments in Jerusalem and the West Bank, according to the US-based website The Long War Journal (LWJ). In April 2023, the IEA envoy to Qatar and Haniyeh met at an Iftar celebration in Doha, according to a report by the Indian think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF).
While the LWJ described such meetings as “an attempt by the Taliban to expand ties with Hamas,” the initiative seems to have come from Hamas, perhaps in an effort to secure (at least verbal) support. Mujahid remained non-committal during his meeting with Haniyeh and referred to Palestine merely as an “issue for the entire Muslim Ummah,” according to a report published by the Middle East Media and Research Institute (MEMRI). No concrete agreements or even arrangements were reported after this or similar meetings. In their May 2024 report published by ORF (cited above), Kabir Taneja and Shivam Shekhawat wrote:
The Taliban has not shown any proactive support for Hamas and has almost never mentioned them by name. … The Taliban has not been vociferous on the Gaza war. On the contrary, it has aired its views and made its position clear, but tried not to wade into either being overtly [in the same camp as the] pro-Iran or pro-Arab states.
While not all meetings between the Emirate and Hamas have been public, or written about, what is certain is that there are bound to have been numerous occasions for them to rub shoulders. Former Hamas representative in Syria, Lebanon and Iran, Mustafa Yusuf Al-Lidawi, is quoted by MEMRI as saying:
It is not unreasonable [to assume] that Afghanistan will become a new base of operations for Hamas… whose gains will multiply as a result the Taliban rule there. For Hamas met with the Taliban leadership for years during their joint stay in Qatar, and formed close ties with it that can be characterized as natural and expected. Hamas will also gain credit with its allies, its affiliates, those who benefit from its ties [with other elements] and those who seek to expand the resistance axis. Iran, [for example], has an interest in ensuring its security and the security of its border with Afghanistan, and Hamas can play a significant role in this context and gain considerable achievements that will count in its favor and burnish its reputation.
There is no confirmation that this assertion is correct from any other source, and – according to this author’s reading – the meetings were not particularly substantive at all.
Acting Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar meets with Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Doha, Qatar.
Photo: Globe Eye News via X, undated.
Emirate reactions after 7 October 2023
As elsewhere, interest in the Israel/Palestine conflict increased in Afghanistan after the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack and the all-out war Israel launched in response in Gaza and later southern Lebanon. In line with its thus far cautious attitude, the Emirate made no official statement at all about the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 – neither condemning nor approving it. Given the number of casualties on the Palestinian side and Israel’s concrete actions in Gaza and the West Bank, however, they, like others, also toughened their tone in official statements, however, without resorting to threats or considering entering the war.
In its various statements, the IEA and its officials have condemned specific Israeli attacks, which they deem “criminal.” For example, in October 2023, the Foreign Ministry “strongly condemned” (see this post on X) the bombing of a hospital in Gaza “by Zionist forces,” calling it “barbaric and a crime against humanity.”[3] It is probably using the term ‘genocide’ for the first time in this context: “We stand in solidarity with the Palestinians, and with countries and organizations calling for the immediate end of the ongoing genocide and bringing its perpetrators to justice.” Two months later, in December 2023, the foreign ministry condemned the bombing of the same hospital in almost identical terms and voiced concern about a regional conflict “spiraling out of control” and declared its “solidarity” with “the Palestinians.” The Foreign Ministry spokesman, Abdul Qahar Balkhi, also weighed in to condemn the United States’ veto of the Gaza ceasefire resolution at the United Nations Security Council on 8 December 2023:
IEA-MoFA deems position of the United States regretable and condemnable vetoing UNSC resolution & international consensus calling for a cease-fire in Gaza, thus openly making the United States complicit in the ongoing atrocities in Gaza (see his thread posted on X).
Acting Foreign Minister Muttaqi, speaking at what was billed as a High-Level Political Consultative Conference on Palestine in Tehran on 23 December 2023, introduced another element into the Emirate’s position, namely the parallels it sees in the West’s behaviour in Gaza and, before 2021, in Afghanistan (see the text of his speech on the IEA Ministry of Foreign Affairs website). He criticised the West’s “double standards” and spoke of a “paradox” that:
[I]n a world where countries are sanctioned under the pretext of the slightest violation of human rights or on political grounds through the instrumentalization of the human rights paradigm … at the same time, the unremitting genocide of a nation by a regime that is breaching all human standards in its war is not even dealt with the slightest objection!” He added that it was “grotesque to see my country, Afghanistan, being sanctioned by instrumentalizing of human rights – when we are taking steps towards security and stability following more than four decades of foreign invasions!
Indeed, Muttaqi questioned whether “the current world order with all these contradictions, founded following World War ll, could still “address the needs of people in the 21st century.”
However, he still did not go beyond condemning “the ongoing atrocities of the Zionist regime in the Gaza Strip and occupied Palestine,” describing “the struggle of the Palestinian nation as legitimate and legal based on the texts of Sharia and international law” and calling again on “the influential Islamic countries” to “play a more effective role in ending the murder of innocent Palestinians by the Zionist regime and holding the Zionist regime accountable.” He called for a “permanent and just” solution to the Palestine issue “that would ensure the Palestinian people have a state established in the historic land of Palestine.”[4] This, again, was neither a demand for a two-state solution nor that the whole land should be for Palestinians, nor that Israel should cease to exist.
Mutaqqi went on to stress that “the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan stands ready, within its capabilities, to accompany the Islamic world in this humanitarian and Islamic issue.” Again, this statement does not include any suggestion of action, such as a threat against Israel or of the Emirate being willing to get directly involved.
The following year, on 2 April 2024, the IEA Foreign Ministry issued a statement slamming Israel’s airstrike on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus, Syria. It condemned the strike “in the strongest possible terms,” calling it a “blatant violation of diplomatic norms and a provoking attempt towards escalating insecurity in the region.”
Following Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel on 14 April, Foreign Ministry spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi termed the action as Iran’s “legitimate right to self-defense” and accused Israel of diverting attention from the “genocide” it was committing against the people of the Gaza Strip by violating other countries’ airspace and thereby destabilising the region. He also reiterated the IEA’s call for “all influential world & regional states to expedite their efforts of halting the crimes of the Zionist regime in order to prevent further escalation of the crisis,” (see his post on X).
Similarly, the Eid al-Fitr message of the IEA’s Amir al-Mu’minin, published by Bakhtar News on 6 April, used the same language, albeit in more general terms:
The Islamic Emirate’s foundation lies on the principles of Islam and the well-being of the Muslim community. We share common faith, beliefs, and convictions, binding us together. In times of joy and sorrow, we stand united, supporting each other with equal participation and collaboration, leveraging our abilities to the best of our capabilities.
This is followed by a two-paragraph section titled “Palestine”:
The issue of Palestine is indeed a concern for the entire Islamic Ummah. We stand in solidarity with the people of Gaza against Israeli aggression and occupation. It is incumbent upon the Islamic Ummah to address the plight of the oppressed Palestinians and to collectively condemn any form of injustice or aggression perpetrated by Israeli invaders. We must mobilize our resources and support Palestine in every possible way to alleviate their suffering and work towards a just resolution of the conflict.
It is regrettable that the international community often falls short in effectively addressing the injustices faced by the people of Palestine. Despite claims of upholding human rights, there is a lack of meaningful action to curb the ongoing oppression and to hold perpetrators of these injustices accountable. This is indeed a source of profound sorrow, and it underscores the urgent need for all responsible parties to fulfill their obligations in addressing this grievous situation.
Individual IEA officials have expressed their support for Hamas, albeit on their personal social media accounts. For example, acting Deputy Education Minister, Mawlawi Sebghatullah Wasil, posted a video message on 8 October 2023, praising Hamas for “their recent operations in Gaza” and “ability to maintain the secrecy of their operations, their preparation, their speed of execution and their skill in carrying out their attacks.” (His statement was cited in a 9 October 2023 post on X by Afghan Analyst). Wasil reportedly stressed that Afghan youth and the ulema were in solidarity with Palestine and expressed their sincere support. He further stated, according to Afghan Analyst, that Hamas’ attack had strengthened the belief that the only viable way against oppression was jihad and resistance.
Similarly, acting Deputy Foreign Minister and the Taleban’s former chief negotiator in Doha, Sher Muhammad Abbas Stanikzai, posted a floral pattern and the word ‘Palestine’ laid into the borders of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza on X on 22 October 2023, accompanied by the comment (see here):
The victory march will continue until the Palestinian flag flies in Jerusalem and in all of Palestine. #FreePalaestin [sic]
The Emirate’s acting Deputy Prime Minister, Muhammad Abdul Kabir, had several meetings with various Iranian officials, including Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, where, according to Tehran-based news outlet Khabar Online, on 2 August 2024, he said:
Afghanistan, together with the Islamic Republic of Iran, supports the oppressed people of Gaza, and perhaps if we had a common border with the occupying regime [Israel], we would have gone to war with the Zionists to defend the oppressed people of Gaza.
A handful of Iranian sources picked up this quote, but it was not widely reported by other news outlets, including the Afghan media. For the most part, media coverage of Kabir’s visit focused on strengthening Kabul-Tehran relations, Afghan refugees in Iran and counter-narcotics (see, for example, Omid Radio, ToloNews and the Iranian Students’ News Agency, ISNA). AAN was unable to find any IEA or other sources either confirming or denying Kabir’s comments.
While encounters between IEA officials and Hamas have continued since 7 October 2023, there has been no indication that these signify a strengthening of contacts. Both sides’ representatives met again in May 2024 when attending the funeral of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, who had died in a helicopter crash (see India Today). On the IEA side, acting Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs and confidant of the late Taleban founder, Mullah Muhammad Omar, Mullah Baradar, attended. Photos of this event were distributed by deputy Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hafiz Zia Amin (see his post on X). Importantly, it does not appear that the IEA delegation had travelled to Tehran specifically in order “to meet the Emir of Qatar and the head of the Hamas Political Bureau,” as reported by the US think tank Jamestown).
The Emirate’s final encounter with Haniyeh came when acting Deputy Prime Minister, Mawlawi Abdul Kabir attended the inauguration of Iran’s newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, on 30 July (see al-Emarah). From there, Kabir went to Doha to attend Ismail Haniyeh’s funeral on 4 August, accompanied by Muhammad Na’im Wardak, the charge d’affaires of the Emirate’s embassy in Qatar (see ToloNews). There, he “met with former Hamas chief Khalid Mashal, deputy chief of Hamas Musa Abu Marzooq and Ismail Haniyeh’s son Abdul Salam Ismail Haniyeh, to express condolences,” as Afghan broadcaster Ariana reported.
Possible fake report about Taleban fighters in Palestine
There have been reports of a more active role for the Emirate in supporting Hamas/the Palestinians. They caused a stir, but ultimately proved dubious. On the very day of the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, a post on social media caused a stir. An X-account calling itself “Taliban Public Relations Department,” which has since been suspended, claimed that the IEA foreign ministry had contacted Iran, Iraq and Jordan to obtain transit permits for Taleban fighters to travel to Palestine to support Hamas. VOA reported the tweet on 9 October 2023:
This evening, the foreign office contacted his counterparts in #Iran, Iraq and Jordan, asking for permission for our men to cross their sovereign territory on their way to the holy land. We are preparing and hoping for the good news from our neighbors.#Gaza #Israel #Palestinepic.twitter.com/ZuHTMeQc7q — #FreePalestine 🇵🇸 (@TalibanPRD__) October 7, 2023
The author could not find this tweet and the account has been inactive since 14 October 2023. Moreover, an institution under such a name does not exist in the IEA system; rather, there are public relations departments in various ministries. There are, however, several other accounts on X with almost the same name, such as “Taliban Public Relations Department, Commenitary” (sic) under the handle @TalibanPRD1 (see here), which on 12 October 2023, claimed that an Afghan “mujahid” from Khost had been a “martyred” in Palestine (see here ).
The Emirate was quick to deny that it was trying to facilitate getting it fighters to get to Palestine to support Hamas; the same VOA report quoted the head of the IEA political office in Doha, Mohammad Suhail Shaheen, as saying the “information” was “inaccurate” and spokesman Mujahid reiterating that the IEA’s position had not changed.
It appears that, in October 2023, the IEA had blocked any member from trying to get to Palestine: an order instructed the General Directorate of Intelligence (GDI) to tell its staff to prevent Taleban fighters leaving Afghanistan for ‘jihad’ in Palestine. The order stressed that the “ideological mujahedin” must remain in Afghanistan and that those who disregarded this order would be punished (see a copy of the letter posted by Afghan Analyst on X).
Also in October, acting Interior Minister Serajuddin Haqqani stressed that: “The Taliban, as the IEA, are prohibited from engaging in Jihad outside Afghanistan,” said Afghan Analyst in a 15 October 2023 post on X. He also went on to note that there were discussions on “internal WhatsApp groups … about supporting about assisting individuals with [obtaining] passports for attending Jihad in Palestine.”
“Numerous pro-Taliban accounts,” Afghan Analyst reported more recently, on 20 March 2024, had claimed that a certain “Yasir, also known as Abu Yosuf al-Afghani,” was killed on 18 March during fighting with Israeli forces in Rafa. According to these sources, Yasir had travelled from Afghanistan to Syria in April 2023 and joined the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir ul-Sham there. In January 2024, he allegedly moved to Palestine “with other Arabs” and took part in fighting there (see the post on X). Afghan Analyst, however, casts doubt on the veracity of this claim by pointing out that his death had already been reported months earlier. He quoted a post by Afghan journalist Wais Barakzai highlighting “recent propaganda efforts by pro-Taliban accounts, which involve misinformation and disinformation.” In his post, Barakzai identified the individual shown in photos posted by various social media accounts and that he was a person “from Syria and was killed several months ago, was also introduced as a Taliban” (see his post on X.
“The authenticity of this claim [is] not known,” said Director of Research at The Khorasan Diary, Riccardo Valle, which focuses on the “greater ‘Khorasan’ region” (broadly speaking, a region that encompasses West and Central Asia) (see his post on X). Valle stressed that the “only source of information has been Afghan Taliban and TTP accounts, it could be a PR move. However, infiltrations [of individual Afghans into Gaza] can be possible.”
It remains unclear whether the episode happened as reported, or even at all. Presumably, Israeli sources would have reported such an incident prominently if there was any truth to it. An internet search yielded no results except a MEMRI report, which also referred only to the posts on X.
The ‘Yasir, also known as Abu Yosuf al-Afghani’ post could be the work of activists involved in – probably mostly private – psychological warfare operations by the Emirate’s opponents. They know that something like this would be picked up and quickly circulated, often without fact-checking, by those who believe the Emirate capable of anything. High-ranking politicians such as the Chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, Republican Michael McCaul, certainly proved the point when he told VoA that he had seen ‘“indications that the Taliban want to come to ‘liberate Jerusalem,’ in their words, to ‘fight the Zionists.’”
Public sentiments in Afghanistan
It is difficult to glean real public sentiments regarding Palestine from Afghan media reports. It can, however, be assumed that Afghans feel a great deal of sympathy for Palestinians not only as fellow Muslims but also as people who have suffered decades of conflict and occupation. That the GDI appear to have put in place procedures to stop Afghans trying to go to Palestine suggests sentiments were strong enough to make some men at least talk about travelling to fight. The younger generation, regardless of their support for the Emirate or lack of, is likely very sympathetic to Palestinians, which could mirror public sentiments in neighbouring Pakistan. “Pakistani society almost universally feels solidarity with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. But that doesn’t rub off on Hamas. Very few people here show solidarity with them,” head of the German Friedrich Naumann Foundation in Pakistan, Birgit Lamm, told German broadcaster Deutsche Welle:
In early August, the Emirate held a public rally to mourn Haniyeh’s death at Kabul’s Eidgah Mosque, where the IEA and Palestinian, but not Hamas flags, were displayed (see Afghan Analyst’s post on X). The rally attracted “hundreds” of participants who carried “banners denouncing the injustices perpetrated by the Israeli occupation and the repression faced by Palestine and Gaza,” according to reports in the pro-Emirate media (see, for example, this Hurriyat Radio post on X).
There were also earlier pro-Palestinian street demonstrations, for example, in Kabul one week after the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack and Israel’s military response (see ToloNews).
It is difficult to determine how much of this was organised by the state and how much was a genuine expression of solidarity by the Afghan public. The Emirate certainly does not permit any public expression of opinion that diverges from their views.[5]
The Emirate does, however, allow rallies supportive of it, or its stances. For example, see a pro-IEA women’s gathering on 11 September 2021 in a Kabul university (see this New York Times report) or street protests in Khost against Pakistani cross-border attacks that killed Afghan civilians in April 2022 (see VoA).
Some IEA officials are more strident on social media than they would be in official statements. The Ministry of Higher Education’s Director of Publications, Information and Public Relations, Hafiz Ruhullah Rohani, for example wrote: “We, God willing, will come to the aid of our oppressed Palestinian brothers from the land of the graveyard of empires. It just takes some time,” in a post on his personal X account in early August (see quote and screenshot here):
Some “prominent Taliban propagandists,” ie not officials, have started a “Boycott Israeli Products” campaign on X, Afghan Analysts reported on 3 July (see this post on X). It is unclear if Israeli goods are even on the Afghan market, or whether such utterances represent online bravado or could translate into concrete action or even an indication that the IEA’s official, previously reserved position might be about to change.
Conclusion
Following Hamas leader Haniyeh’s assassination, various media and news platforms – both Afghan and international – discussed the relationship between the Taleban/Islamic Emirate and Hamas. Much of the analysis seemed to the author at least partially superficial, while some sounded biased, insinuating a much closer – and sinister – relationship then was the case in reality.
One could certainly argue, though, as MEMRI does, that the (sparse) Hamas-Emirate relations are inspired “by the shared position of jihadism” and by their experiences of “occupation.” When, in 2017, AAN guest authors, Anand Gopal and Alex Strick van Linschoten looked into how Taleban ideology had developed since the fall of the first Emirate, Hamas was one of the movements they compared it to, along with Ahrar al-Sham in Syria and al-Nahda in Tunisia, similar in how their “Islamic Nationalism … was focused on the goal of ‘national liberation’.” Hamas has never been active in Afghanistan and the Taleban have shown little interest in becoming actively engaged in Gaza or the wider Middle East conflict, or indeed any country outside Afghanistan. Both groups are focussed on their own country, not interested in others’ affairs, except as it affects them. In an interview with al-Jazeera in August 2022, an IEA spokesman did not even seem to rule out diplomatic relations with Israel in principle since they have no [immediate] problems with Israel (quoted by MEMRI TV).
Given the geographical distance between Afghanistan and Israel/Palestine, intensive interaction between the two is unlikely. Historically, many volunteers from Arab countries, including some Palestinians, participated in the mujahidin’s fight against the Soviet occupation, a segment of which later became the Taleban. But no particularly close relationships emerged from this. Signs that this might be changing are hard to find beyond some individual online statements.
Edited by Roxanna Shapour and Kate Clark
References
References
↑1
According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, there are some 40,000 Palestinian Christians living in the West Bank, 850 in the Gaza Strip, and 4,000 in Jerusalem (quoted by Anadolu Agency). The US Department of State’s ‘2023 Report on International Religious Freedom: Israel, West Bank and Gaza also provides a figure of 138,000 living inside Israel. Even greater numbers live in the Palestinian diaspora.
↑2
We were only able to find one exception, in an Islamic Emirate statement posted on X by spokesman Mujahid dated 13 October 2024, where the terms ‘Israel’ and ‘Israelis’ were used. States and individuals especially hostile to Israel typically do not name it, using such phrases as ‘Zionist entity’, instead.
↑3
The statement referred to an attack on the al-Ahli hospital, formerly the al-Mamadani. The cause of the explosion is actually contested, with some sources including Israel, the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Canada saying they believe it was a result of a failed rocket launched from within Gaza by either the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) or Hamas (see, for example, The Guardian and Al-Jazeera). Other sources, such as Goldsmith University’s Forensic Architecture, assert that the blast was the result of “a munition fired from the direction of Israel” (see here). Several other organisations have since examined satellite imagery and eyewitness accounts, but so far have been unable to determine who was to blame for the attack on the hospital with certainly (see, for example, The New York Time’s ‘A Close Look at Some Key Evidence in the Gaza Hospital Blast’). The hospital was established by theAnglican Church’s Church Missionary Society (CMS) in 1882 and is currently operated by the Anglican Diocese of Jerusalem (for more information on the hospital and its history see Barnett, Carlton Carter, Anglo-American Missionary Medicine in Gaza, 1882-1981, Dissertation, University of Texas at Austin, 2021 available on the Wayback Machine here).
↑4
Muttaqi was not explicit about the geographic boundaries when he referred to “the historic land of Palestine.”
↑5
Shortly after taking power, on 19 September 2021, the IEA published an 11-point code of conduct for the media (see Reporter without Borders and UNAMA’s November 2024 report ‘Media Freedom in Afghanistan’), which stipulates that all reports “must be in an Islamic format and in accordance with Afghanistan’s tradition” and align with the “national interests.” The code includes the vaguely worded warning: “If there is any illegal action, it will be addressed” (see ToloNews). What precisely constitutes a contradiction of Islam and Afghan tradition, however, is left open to interpretation by the rulers. The Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice Law, issued on 21 August 2024, tasks the virtue and vice ministry’s muhtasiban (enforcers) “to ensure that those working for the press and news organisations” comply with these stipulations (see AAN’s basic translation). In September 2024, the IEA imposed additional restrictions on the media. According to a report by the Afghanistan Journalists Center (AFJC), they included prohibiting criticism of the IEA’s laws and policies, as well as banning the broadcast of live political shows. Media bosses were informed of the new guidelines in a meeting on 21 September, where they were told that the Emirate must first approve topics for political shows. Furthermore, they were told, that they could only interview guests from an approved list, which includes 64 individuals designated by the IEA (see the list of 64 individuals who have been approved by the IEA to be interviewed by the media in this Zamzam News tweet).
Birds of a Feather, in Ideology: What is the relationship between the Islamic Emirate and Hamas?
Taken too far, incoming US president’s pragmatic disengagement policy in Afghanistan could badly backfire.
Since Donald Trump’s re-election as United States president, there has been growing discussion about what his incoming administration’s policies towards Afghanistan might look like.
Many anticipate a tougher stance against the Taliban, but a closer look at Trump’s track record and statements on the issue indicates he is unlikely to make any drastic changes to the pragmatist and staunchly anti-intervention policies he pursued during his first term in power.
During his first term as president, Trump made his stance against protracted foreign engagements and especially the decades-long US presence in Afghanistan clear. He was the architect of the 2020 Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban, which paved the way for the US withdrawal from the country and ultimately allowed the Taliban’s return to power.
The Doha Agreement was a major turning point in America’s Afghanistan strategy. Dissatisfied with the progress of his administration’s South Asia policy, frustrated by a perceived lack of accountability among military advisers and eager to prove to his voting base that he could indeed end one of America’s longest and most costly wars, Trump began to look for a fast way out of Afghanistan. And after all the traditional strategies failed to produce a workable exit plan, he entered into direct negotiations with the Taliban to end the conflict.
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After his re-election, Trump is likely to stick to this business-minded approach to foreign policy, which remains popular with his base, and favour pragmatic deals over costly confrontations and military entanglements in Afghanistan and elsewhere.
The Taliban itself seems to believe the Trump presidency could be beneficial for its future prospects. For example, the Afghan government hopes the future Trump administration “will take realistic steps toward concrete progress in relations between the two countries and both nations will be able to open a new chapter of relations”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi said in a post on X in November soon after Trump’s victory in the US election.
The Taliban’s optimism for future relations stems from its positive interactions with the first Trump administration. After all, the first Trump administration negotiated directly with the Taliban, started the process of a US withdrawal from Afghanistan and prepared the ground for its return to Kabul.
However, although he has been more open to a pragmatic collaboration with the Taliban than President Joe Biden and firmly against any direct military confrontation, Trump is unlikely to let the Taliban do as it likes with the country or give it everything it needs without extracting a price. If the Taliban fails to make progress in fulfilling the commitments it made as part of the Doha Agreement, for example, Trump would likely curtail US assistance or condition it on tangible progress in specific areas.
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Trump has consistently argued for cutting back foreign aid as part of an “America First” approach, and he can also reduce US assistance to Afghanistan significantly without offering a reason or condition. He also would not hesitate to impose severe economic sanctions on the Taliban government if he concludes that it is harming American interests in one way or another.
US humanitarian aid amounting to about $40m a week since the Taliban takeover is an important lifeline to Afghanistan’s impoverished population. Any limitation or reduction in US aid would have significant consequences for its wellbeing and that of the fragile Afghan economy. Such a decision would deepen Afghanistan’s economic crisis and further erode progress in education, healthcare and food security.
Since Trump’s last term as president, global attention has moved away from Afghanistan. After the US withdrawal and with the beginning of globally consequential hot conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, the country became somewhat peripheral to Washington’s foreign policy agenda. As an “America First” president who will have to spend considerable time dealing with crises in the Middle East and Europe, Trump is highly unlikely to treat Afghanistan as anything other than a problem he already solved.
However, Trump’s isolationist tendencies in foreign policy coupled with the aid cuts and economic sanctions he may impose on the Taliban could easily result in the collapse of the Afghan economy and once again turn Afghanistan into an urgent problem for the US and its allies.
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Afghanistan’s economic collapse could trigger a new migration crisis, significant regional instability and create fertile ground for extremist groups, such as the ISIL (ISIS) affiliate in Khorasan Province, to flourish.
While Trump’s noninterventionist stance appeals to an American audience wary of foreign intervention, the ripple effects of a weakened and further impoverished Afghanistan could present longer-term security challenges.
Such a scenario would also have severe consequences for the Afghan people – worsening economic hardship and causing a potential collapse of health services, renewed conflict and further isolation from the rest of the world.
Once Trump is back in the White House and trying to deliver on his “America First” agenda, Afghanistan is unlikely to be a priority in his mind. Nonetheless, the choices he makes regarding Afghanistan will have important consequences not only for the long-suffering Afghan people but also the entirety of the international community.
In short, in his second term, Trump will need to find the right balance between pragmatic disengagement and responsibilities of global leadership to be successful in his Afghanistan policy and ensure that his efforts to end one conflict do not create a worse one down the line.
Amin is a writer and analyst currently serving as a fellow at the Oxford Global Society think tank in Oxford, United Kingdom and the Brenthurst Foundation.
In Afghanistan, Trump will have to play a balancing game
An Afghan woman amongst ruins caused by ongoing conflict in the country.
Medical institutions were the last hope for Afghan girls and women seeking higher education since the Taliban banned schools and universities for women
“Why do you torture us every day? Just give us poison and end it all,” a heartbroken Afghan medical student told Taliban forces, expressing the despair of thousands of girls whose dreams of becoming healthcare professionals were shattered by the Taliban’s latest decree.
The hardline group has banned all female medical students from pursuing education, marking the closure of nursing and midwifery programs across Afghanistan, the last lifeline for girls seeking higher education in a country where women’s rights have been systematically eroded since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.
The Taliban’s recent decree, issued directly by the group’s supreme leader, Hebatullah Akhundzada, has caused immediate devastation.
For the past three years, nursing and midwifery were the only remaining fields of study open to women after the Taliban banned girls from attending secondary schools and universities. The abrupt closure of these institutions has ignited widespread despair across Afghan society.
The ban comes a few months after the Taliban banned women’s voices and faces in public under so-called new vice and virtue laws.
Health Policy Watch spoke to several nursing students who expressed frustration and sadness.
‘Are we not human?’
“I was about to graduate. After the closure of universities, nursing institutes were our last hope. Now, they are closed too. I feel completely hopeless,” said Sumaya*, a nursing student in her final semester.
Hameeda*, a nursing student in Kabul, echoed the despair: “We don’t have the means to study abroad. We are asking the Taliban: ‘Are we not human? Don’t we have the right to education? God has made men and women equal in their rights.”
“I have turned homeless, wandering aimlessly,” one student said in a viral video. Her words, along with others like it, have echoed through Kabul and beyond as girls wearing full-body black veils, many in tears, left their classrooms for the final time, uncertain if they would ever return.
Fariba*, a mother from Kabul, received devastating news when her daughter, Parwana, called early one morning, sobbing uncontrollably.
“She never calls at this time,” Fariba, who once taught elementary education to girls, told Health Policy Watch. “It’s when she’s in class.”
Her daughter Sara* had been studying nursing after her dream of attending university to study computer science was dashed by the Taliban’s closure of higher education for girls.
“Now, we are left without hope,” Sara, 20, lamented. “Our dreams are shattered. We are being pushed into the darkness.”
Conservative estimates suggest that around 35,000 girls were enrolled in over 150 private and 10 public medical institutions offering diplomas in fields such as nursing, midwifery, dentistry, and laboratory sciences before the Taliban’s ban.
These programs were the last available option for young Afghan women who sought to contribute to their communities, particularly in healthcare.
The abrupt suspension has left students in shock. The administrator of one of the nursing institutes sent a message to all female students: “With a heavy heart, I must inform you that until further notice from the Islamic Emirate, you must not come to the institute for studies.”
Deepening health crisis
Training to be a nurse or midwife was the sole remaining career option for Afghan women after the Taliban takeover in 2021.
This move not only marks the end of the academic ambitions of girls and women, but also deepens the country’s already precarious healthcare crisis.
Afghanistan’s healthcare system was already under strain before the Taliban’s return to power, with one of the highest maternal mortality rates in the world.
In 2020, the country saw 620 women die for every 100,000 live births – a stark contrast to just 10 deaths in the UK, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
Less than 60% of births were overseen by trained health personnel in 2019, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), which estimates that Afghanistan requires an additional 18,000 skilled midwives to meet the needs of its women.
Despite the overwhelming need for female healthcare workers, the Taliban’s decision to block access to medical education for women will exacerbate the crisis.
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) warned that the country’s lack of female healthcare professionals would directly impact the provision of essential health services, especially maternal care.
“There is no healthcare system without educated female health practitioners,” said Mickael Le Paih, MSF’s Country Representative in Afghanistan.
“In MSF, more than 41% of our medical staff are women. The decision to bar women from studying at medical institutes will further exclude them from both education and healthcare.”
The healthcare sector’s reliance on female professionals is especially critical in Afghanistan, where cultural norms often prevent women from being treated by male doctors.
Dr Ahmed Rashed, a Kabul-based health policy expert, warned that the Taliban’s latest decree would create numerous social challenges, especially for Afghan women who prefer to be treated by female healthcare workers.
“If girls cannot attend secondary school, and women cannot study at universities or medical institutes, where will the future generation of female doctors come from?” Rashed asked. “Who will provide healthcare to Afghan women when they need it most? For essential services to be available to all genders, they must be delivered by all genders.”
International outcry
Last week, the United Nations (UN) Security Council criticized the medical education ban and the “vice and virtue” law issued in August in a unanimous resolution voicing concern about “the increasing erosion” of human rights in the country.
“If implemented, the reported new ban will be yet another inexplicable, totally unjustifiable blow to the health, dignity, and futures of Afghan women and girls. It will constitute yet another direct assault on the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan,” according to UN Special Rapporteurs working on women’s rights, human rights and health.
“It will undoubtedly lead to unnecessary suffering, illness, and possibly deaths of Afghan women and children, now and in future generations, which could amount to femicide.”
The Norwegian Afghanistan Committee (NAC), which trains female healthcare workers in collaboration with the Ministry of Health, reported that it had been verbally informed that classes for women would be “temporarily suspended.”
As the Taliban’s gender-based restrictions continue to devastate the lives of millions of Afghan women and girls, the question remains: What is the future of Afghanistan’s healthcare system? Without access to education, Afghan women will be barred from becoming the doctors, nurses, and midwives their country so desperately needs.
This decision, experts warn, will not only create immediate social and healthcare challenges but will have long-term consequences for generations to come.
* Names changed to protect their identities
Manija Mirzaie is an Afghan journalist now based outside that country.
‘Are We Not Human?’ Afghan Women in Despair After Taliban Ban Them from Nursing and Midwifery Women’s Health
House prices and rents in the Afghan capital are on the rise again, according to estate agents and tenants. There was a sharp decline in both prices and rents when the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) took power in August 2021. Now, people who need to move are discovering just how difficult it is to find a place they can afford to live in. AAN’s Sayed Asadullah Sadat and Kate Clark have been speaking to real estate agents and tenants, finding out why rents and property prices plummeted in 2021, why, in 2024, they are again on the rise and how this is affecting the citizens of Kabul.A view of Kabul city centre, with unplanned houses perched on the mountain slope of Koh-e Asmai/Asamai (aka TV Hill), comprising the western side of the Deh Afghanan neighbourhood, and upscale projects in the background. Photo: Fabrizio Foschini, 2012
I’ve been living in rental houses for 30 years. I’ve never faced such a situation before. It’s hard to find a vacant house in Kabul. If you do find one, someone has already reached an agreement with the owner to rent it. Rahmatullah has rented his four-room home in the Yekeh Tut area in district 9 (PD9) of the capital since the 2021 takeover. He was paying 5,000 afghanis (USD 73) a month, but the owner recently more than doubled the rent, putting it up to 12,000 afghanis (USD 176). He has been looking for another house to rent at a more reasonable rent, but is finding that his landlord’s deal is probably the best on offer:
I have to leave this house because I can’t afford it. It’s been a month since I started looking for another house, but I still can’t find one. I went to many property dealers. There are houses with very high rents. Wherever you go, you can’t find four-room houses with rents lower than 16,000 [USD 235]. During the Republic, I also lived in a rental house. I used to pay 7,000 afghanis [USD 100], but it’s now 12,000 afghanis [USD 176].
Rahmatullah even tried to fund a home with a gerawi mortgage,[1] but found they were too high as well. His experience is typical, according to other tenants and estate agents we interviewed. Aminullah, an estate agent in Qala-ye Fathullah in PD10, said that under the previous government, “the price of buying, selling, rent and mortgage in this area was high,” but prices “dropped to unprecedentedly [low] levels,” with the change in government. The fall of the Republic was accompanied by the mass emigration of Afghans with links to other countries: according to The New Humanitarian, around 124,000 Afghans were evacuated from Afghanistan on or just after 15 August 2021 when the Taleban re-took power. More left later or considered trying to leave (see also BBC report here). Those leaving “sold their houses for half the price,” said Aminullah, “and that reduced rents and mortgages.” Another estate agent, Sayed Hamidullah, in the Kart-e Naw area in PD8 also said that, in the central areas of Kabul, such as Shahr-e Naw, Qala-ye Fathullah and Taimani, many NGOs run by foreigners who had paid high rents, closed, again dampening the market.
In the first year after the takeover, Hamidullah also remembered that some people with two or three houses feared the new government would take or destroy their properties, so they sold them at low prices. At the same time, people in Kabul who had money were reluctant to buy property because the future was uncertain. People worried that the economic situation would worsen, he said, or there would be war. House prices fell, as did rents.
Tenants were delighted. Kabul resident Harun told Tolonews on 15 September 2021 that he was glad the exorbitant rents of the Islamic Republic were over: “I have lived in a rented house for 20 years and was paying 10,000 afghanis [USD 145] for a three-room house. I am very happy that the rent of the house has now been reduced to 5,000 afghanis [USD 72].”
Map of Kabul with police district boundaries marked. Source: iMMAP for AAN, 2018
Estate agents were less happy. Immediately after the takeover, reported Pajhwok, their business came to a standstill. Rents for an average three-room house, one broker told the news agency, were down by a third, from 300 USD to 200 USD: “Overall,” he said, “there is no business, no one rents a house, no one buys it.” In early 2022, estate agents reported that rents, prices and mortgages had fallen by more than 50 per cent in the previous six months (see Pajhwokreporting).
The new rents
The tide has now turned well and truly. Estate agents supplied us with rental price increases that they have witnessed:central districts, such as Shahr-e Naw, Qala-ye Fathullah, Kart-e Char and Kart-e Naw, they say, have witnessed a 40 per cent increase in rents this year, they said, while in the suburbs of Kabul, rents have increased by 20 to 30 per cent. Demand also varies within neighbourhoods. Estate agent Aminullah said demand was still low for renting or buying big houses in his neighbourhood of Qala-ye Fathullah, but the market was hot for small houses, leading to a hike in prices for these dwellings (see also this online property dealer website). Another estate agent, Sayed Hamidullah, in the Kart-e Naw area in PD8, described the increase in the price of land and housing in Kabul as unprecedented. “In some areas,” he said, “prices are increasing to such an extent that ordinary people and even the middle class are unable to buy. Selling and buying lands in these areas is only for the rich and high-ranking government officials” (see also RFL reporting).
One broker gave some average rents to illustrate the general fall and rise – see the figure below.
Average rents and real estate prices in Qala-ye Fathullah and Kart-e Naw since August 2021, in USD.
The shooting up of rents and prices has made life difficult for many. Mursal, who lives with her husband and only child in a rented house in Kart-e Naw in the 8th district of Kabul, said that at the beginning of Islamic Emirate rule, she was paying 6,000 afghanis (USD 85) in rent, but now the house owner has increased the rent to 9,000 afghanis (USD 135). Looking to see if she could get a cheaper rent if she moved, she said: “Wherever you go, you can’t find a two-room house to rent for less than 12,000 afghanis [USD 171] and apartments aren’t so cheap either.”
Another resident, Ahmad Shah, who rents an apartment in Stanakzai Mina in PD8, said the rent rises “have made life difficult for those who don’t own a home,” but “whatever rent the owner asks for, you need to pay it.” Recent rises have been crippling, he said, a three-room apartment renting for less than 200 USD three years ago is now going for 300 USD. “There is no authority to control apartment rents in Kabul,” he complained and stressed that the hikes have added to the struggles many people have to afford basic necessities. He also said that for those with roots in the countryside, going home is also not the safety net it used to be:
We don’t know where to go. … It used to be good that when there was no work in the city, you’d go to your village and work on the farms, but now there’s no [work] in the villages either – there isn’t enough water to irrigate the lands. The economic situation of the rural people is very bad. Here, if there’s nothing, a dry piece of bread can be found. At least, if there’s no work, we can sell plastic bags to get a piece of bread, but in the countryside, there’s nothing.
Rahmatullah, who lives in the Yekeh Tut area, is a hawker supporting a family of seven and is no longer allowed to sell goods inside the city. He said he is squeezed from both sides by high rents and little earning potential:
We are confused and don’t know what to do. Food prices are very high, but rents have also got so high … [how] should we pay the rent and have something to eat? I earn 100 to 200 Afghanis [USD 3] a day and use it all for daily expenses. At the end of the month, I’m in debt for the rent. Right now, I’m in debt to the landlord for three months. I don’t know where I’ll find the money. The landlord has told me to leave the house because the rent’s increased to 12,000 afghanis [USD 171]. The government neither controls house rents nor does it allow hawkers to work in the city, but beats them [if they do]. What can we do? Where can we go?
Tenants under particular pressure – those whose homes have been demolished
In October 2022, the IEA established the Land-Grabbing Prevention and Restitution Commission within the Ministry of Justice. Its purpose is to investigate past grabbing of state land and reclaim it. (For a December 2023 overview of how the commission works in different cities, including Kabul, see AAN’s ‘Land in Afghanistan: This time, retaking instead of grabbing land?’). The decree that established the commission demanded that homeowners living on usurped land now rent what had been their property from the government; this was the case even if they had bought the land in good faith. Others, however, have seen their homes demolished. This was the case if the municipality decided the land was needed for expanding roads. Some of those who have lost their homes had lived in their houses for many years and have been left without shelter. Moreover, not all who lost their homes to the commission were compensated, which makes moving all the more difficult.
One Kabuli to lose her home is Sahar. She was widowed in one of the suicide attacks that struck Kabul during the Republic and now heads her family – four little girls and her elderly parents – in the Hawa Shanasi area near Kabul Airport in PD9. Her father, she said, is very old and can no longer work and his government pension has stopped. She also lost her office job with the coming of the Emirate. They now have no income – and no home. Last year, she said the municipality destroyed the home her family had lived in for 40 years because of road development:
At first, the municipal officers came and told us that the government was obliged to pay us to cover the cost of our house and land. They asked us for property documents. When people presented the documents of their houses to the Kabul municipality, they reviewed and checked them and then said: “The land belongs to the government, so we won’t pay you anything for it. We’ll only pay you for the house you built there.”
Exacerbating all her difficulties was the extremely tight deadline they were given to evacuate their homes – just 15 days – and the fact that hers was one of more than 500 households who had been living in the neighbourhood, all needing to move. (The municipality said it gave them six months to leave.) “There were just no houses in our area to rent,” said Mursal, “or the rent was excessively high.” For a whole month, she said she went from street to street and house to house, looking for an affordable house to rent, but could not find one.When the deadline was over, she said she tried to get the municipality to give her a stay of execution, but they refused. She had gone, in a matter of days [or weeks], from homeowner to homeless and in desperate need of somewhere, urgently, to rent:
Eventually, I found a two-room, mud-built house in a remote area at a high rent. Such a house would not have been rented for more than 2,000 afghanis [USD 28] during the Republic, but I had to pay 5,000 [USD 71]. I had no choice. Even then, the owners said they’d only rent us the house if I paid six months’ rent in advance. I begged them to accept two months and finally they agreed.
All 500 families made homeless, she said, were like her own, poor people who had lived in Hawa Shanasi for a long time and built their houses with a lot of difficulty. She asked the officials about the promised compensation, she said: “They told me, ‘We don’t have any budget now. When there is money, we’ll give it to you.’ … Now I’m wondering what to do. I’m a widow and in charge of my family. There’s no man in our family to work.” Sahar and her family have had to move twice. She was evicted the first time because she could not pay the rent and did not have the proper paperwork (more on this below). Her children, she said, now have to go without enough food because they have to prioritise the rent.
Another interviewee, Sayed Ikram, who was also living in Hawa Shanasi and saw his home destroyed, said that, according to the law, the municipality must pay compensation first, before it demolishes people’s houses. (According to Articles 2 and 8 of the Kabul municipal law, the municipality must pay and acquire property first, and then it can start the demolition.) Ikram complained that acquisition forms were not given out properly: some people received them and some did not, but even those who filled out the forms have yet to be compensated. Even so, the municipality went ahead and destroyed their houses.
In his case, he said, people were given neither enough time to move nor paid what was owed them. “Our request,” he said, “is to receive the money or land they promised us as soon as possible so we can use it to support our lives or buy a house elsewhere.”
Ikram and Sahar appear not to be alone. Other residents have spoken to the media about unpaid compensation (see, for example, Tolonews report here). However, a representative of Kabul municipality, Nematullah Barakzai, pledged that all those who were eligible for compensation would be paid in full. “Over the past year, during 2023, 2,398 properties have been expropriated, and compensation for more than a 1,000 of these properties has been paid out … [with] more than 1.5 billion afghanis already distributed to the people. We have also allocated another half a billion afghanis for this same purpose,” he said during Kabul Municipality’s 2024 accountability session on 12 September.[2] He did, however, stress:
If the land is government land, it’s undoubtedly the government’s property and cannot be acquired under any circumstances. In special cases, if necessary, payments will be made to those whose houses have been damaged. If the land’s private, apart from paying for the building, compensation is also given for the land.
Why are rents and house prices increasing?
Supply and demand
In Afghanistan, there is no rent control – something many interviewees, like Ahmad Shah and Rahmatullah above, complained about. Property dealer, Haji Baryali, of Qala-ye Fathullah in the 10th district of Kabul city said there was nothing estate agents could do about rising rents either:
House rents have been increasing every year. The owners set the rent as they wish and no government body has the right to interfere. Property dealers have nothing to do with this either. They only have consulting roles and sign contracts between landlords and tenants according to the law and real estate policy.
Instead, the market – supply and demand – determines real estate prices and rents. Demand for homes in the capital has surged, said Barylai, because more Afghans want to live in the city – and that is a long-term trend:
More than 70 per cent of the people who fled Afghanistan to neighbouring countries in the 1980s and 1990s were rural people. But [in exile], they lived in cities, in urban areas, and when they returned to Afghanistan, they started living in cities here. Some people still living in the [Afghan] countryside have also moved to Kabul city, which has also pushed rents up.
Baryalai said that migration to Kabul was again pushing up demand for houses. Baryalai and many other interviewees pointed to a surge of people, including Taleban, coming from the countryside to the cities. Sayed Hamidullah commented that “people are trying to come to the city and live here because there’s no work in the provinces and rural areas. Their economic situation is very bad. They have come to the city. Everyone is busy in the city trying to find something for their family to eat.” There are also returnees forced to leave Pakistan who are coming to Kabul (almost three-quarters of a million in the year up to the end of September, according to the International Organisation for Migration, IOM). One contact pointed to another trend, of Afghans living abroad who have second passports returning.
All interviewees, including Baryalai, pointed to Taleban employees and “the new authorities” coming to live in Kabul as another factor pushing up demand for housing and contributing to the hike in rents. Estate agent Aminullah said: “Most Taleban authorities have two, three or even four wives and they rent a separate house for each,” driving up rents more generally, he claimed, and driving down supply. Mursal said the Taleban “pay more rent than other people and therefore rents have gone up again.” Rahmatullah in Yekeh Tut area in PD 9 also claimed that Taleban are bringing their families to Kabul and “can pay high rents, but we are jobless, so how can we pay rent and provide for our families?”
Estate agent Aminullah said that, in general, following the first bleak year after the takeover, the economic outlook had improved and rich people had begun to invest again. Most of the NGOs also resumed their activities, he said, and houses that had been empty, especially in Qala-ye Fathullah, Shahr-e Naw, Wazir Akbar Khan and Shirpur, were now rented. All this drove up property prices and rents.
Bureaucracy makes it harder to move
Ahmad Shah also pointed to another driver of the rent rises. More stringently enforced bureaucracy was making it more difficult to move, so once a person was in a house, they would swallow rent increases rather than try to find a cheaper home to rent:[3]
To rent a home, you have to have a passport-e sahawi or you have to apply for one, and two people have to guarantee you and you have to give it to the relevant police district and the property dealer. If someone doesn’t have a passport-e sahawi, they can’t rent a place to live elsewhere. That’s why many people don’t move. They keep living in the same house even if the rent is very high. Once someone rents a house, they don’t leave it. Because if you move to a new area, you must bring a guarantee from the house-owner where you used to live and the wakil-e guzar [head of the neighbourhood] and police district should confirm you lived in that area and that you didn’t commit any crime there.
There is also another form for changing your location, with permission from the police district. The relevant district and the wakil-e guzar must confirm that you’ve lived there and for how long. They must also confirm that you haven’t committed any crime. You also need to explain in the form why you want to leave that area and this too has to be confirmed by the old police district and the wakil-e guzar. After that, they will send your form to the wakil-e guzar in the new area where you want to live.
The passport-e sahawi system also existed under the Republic, but was not implemented so seriously. Ahmad said its rigorous implementation has “created a lot of problems for people. On the one hand, there’s unemployment and on the other hand, there are high house rents, these relocation forms and the challenges of getting guarantees – it’s all very hard for people.”
This system hit Sahar badly. She was forced to leave the neighbourhood where her family had lived for four decades and everyone knew them and then move twice, needing a new passport-e sahawi each time: “It’s very problematic because if you move to an area where you don’t know anyone,” she said, “they don’t guarantee you and you can’t rent.”
Demolitions, the Kabul master plan and supply-side problems
After the IEA established a special court in 2022 and banned construction on state land, many settlements built during the Republic, as well as land that had been seized and sold to the people by powerful figures in the past, were declared state-owned (read examples of rulings here and here). The IEA appears to have different responses to this in different areas. It has rented some houses back to their old owners, while destroying some houses built on state land. (It should be noted that the Amir has also reserved for himself the right to give away state property, including land and property.)[4]
The demolition of homes built on state land may also be affecting the supply side of housing in the capital. According to Kabul Municipality representative Barakzai, the municipality has expropriated almost 2,400 properties in the past year. Whether these were also destroyed or just taken over and rented back to the old owners, as the decree setting up the land-grabbing commission demands (text here), he did not say (see his interview with Salam Watandar here).
Demolitions may only hurt the total supply side of housing marginally, but can still be significant locally, especially in working-class neighbourhoods, as in Sahar’s case. Key neighbourhoods affected by demolitions are Qasba in PD15, Sar Kotal-e Khairkhana in PD17, Hawa Shanasi in PD9), Kart-e Naw in PD8, Dasht-e Barchi in PD13, Kot-e Sangi in PD5 and Kompani in PD5. However, one of the most upmarket neighbourhoods has also come under the commission’s scrutiny. In late November 2024, it declared that more than 60 hectares had been declared state land in Shepur, according to media, including Ariana News. “The Islamic Emirate claimed,” reported Ariana, “that no documentation had been provided by occupants to prove private ownership of the parcels of land and instead the area had been developed ‘arbitrarily and against planned designs.’”
Sherpur was where then Minister of Defence Fahim Qasim ordered the bulldozing of poor people’s homes built on ministry land in 2003 and then redistributed plots to commanders, cabinet ministers and other well-connected individuals, about half of whom were from his faction, Shura-ye Nizar, which had captured Kabul in 2001.[5] It was in one of the mansions built on this land where al-Qaida leader Aiman al-Zawahri was living when the United States killed him in a drone attack on 31 July 2022 (see AAN reporting here).
Estate agent Aminullah in PD 10 said the commission’s actions and orders were having an impact on the housing supply, and not just because of the demolitions. All real estate brokers have been banned, he said, from buying and selling land and houses built on what the land-grabbing commission has decreed is usurped state land. No real estate agent is allowed to buy or sell houses in areas that are not in the municipality’s master plan (see Fabrizio Foschini’s backgrounder on the Kabul master plan ‘Kabul Unpacked: A Geographical Guide to a Metropolis In The Making’). The strict adherence to the Kabul master plan, said Aminullah, has implications for the housing supply, as it was pushing down the supply and helping to drive up rents and prices.[6] Estate agent Hamidullah, in the Kart-e Naw area in PD8 of Kabul agreed:
Kabul municipality doesn’t allow building houses in areas, which are not in its master plan. In the past, people used to build houses in those areas and there were a lot of one-storey buildings and families were living there. Then, when their family members were increasing, they were either getting separated and living in different houses or were changing their old houses to two-storey buildings. However, now no one has the right to build or construct anything. Only the people who live in areas that are based on the master plan can build houses with the permission of the municipality. Otherwise, they can’t build until further notice. This also caused the prices of houses and rents to increase.
The municipality’s policy was outlined by Kabul Municipality representative Barakzai at a press conference on 5 August 2023, that the municipality was indeed preventing the construction of homes and other development in the state land or area. He added: “Construction is ongoing in Kabul City, but the municipality does not allow construction on government and usurped properties, as well as unplanned areas.” (Kabul Municipality’s reports can be read here and here). Barakzai, speaking to RTA on 20 November 2024 about road and house-building, also outlined the procedure for those wanting to build:
First, permission should be obtained from Kabul Municipality.Second, the land should be specified where it is, whether it is government land or private and if it is in a green area. Then, the municipality will allow him to work and the person can builda house there. If it is government land or a green area, the municipality will never let any construction there.
Kabul municipality has pushed back on criticism, including in apparent response to a hard-hitting 18 November article in The Guardian alleging that Kabul’s ‘regeneration’ programme had made thousands of people homeless and had an ethnic bias. In a series of tweets published on 24 November, it insisted that compensation was being given and proper procedures followed: “The citizens whose properties are being purchased for new road building projects are also notified by Kabul Municipality to complete the administrative stages of their paperwork as soon as possible,” it said, “and to contact Kabul Municipality to claim their rights.” It described the municipality as “a vast service-provider administration that implements its objectives in accordance with balanced development principles” and said that Kabul is the “home of all Afghans.”
Conclusion
In 2021, the Islamic Emirate took over a capital city that, in terms of houses built legally, was a mess. According to estimates by the World Bank, already in 2004, informal settlements, that is, houses built outside of the master plan and in most cases on state-claimed land, accounted for 70 per cent of residential areas and were where 80 per cent of the population in Kabul. The Republic neither tried to demolish them nor discouraged new building, which in fact continued up to 2021. Nor did it recognise residents’ legal ownership or uniformly expand public services (including healthcare, schools, sanitation, transport) to those areas. This knotty problem was widely perceived and debated already under the Republic, but attempts at addressing it were frustrated by the rivalry between the Kabul Municipality and the Ministry of Urban Development Affairs, the economic interests of powerful actors and the difficulty of coping with the high numbers of returnees and new urban residents.[7] It is possible, then, that the amount of land in Kabul that the land-grabbing commission has thus far declared to belong to the state, on which properties may or may not then be demolished, is the tip of an iceberg.
The informal settlements have compounded Kabul’s sanitation and transportation problems because the settlements were allowed to expand without the municipality providing services. It seems the IEA is keen on tackling transport, at least as far as building roads, which have been the driver of most of the demolitions so far.
Even so, the land-grabbing commission’s actions and orders are but one factor, and not the most important one, driving up the cost of real estate in Kabul. Increased demand for urban housing, hottest in the Afghan capital, is outpacing supply, pushing up house prices and rents. At the same time, bureaucratic procedures are exacerbating the tendency of sitting tenants to try to stay where they and accept any rent increases because moving is so difficult.
As rents and house prices have skyrocketed, anxiety is growing among many citizens: How can they pay the rent and feed their children when paid work is scarce and living expenses are soaring? Kabul Municipality insists that “Afghanistan is a unified nation, and Kabul City is home to all Afghans.” This, however, stands in sharp contrast to the realities faced by the city’s poorest residents. For them, the gap between the haves and the have-nots in Afghanistan’s capital seems to be widening, and their voices are yet to be listened to.
Edited by Roxanna Shapour
References
References
↑1
Gerawi is an agreement whereby a person pays a large amount of money to the house owner for using his or her house, for example, for a year and the house owner repays the money if the person leaves the house after a year.
↑2
More recent figures have come from the head of Kabul Municipality’s Acquisition Department, Abdul Matin Hanif, who tweeted on 24 November that the mmunicipality “has disbursed around AFN 2 billion (USD 28,985,507) to the 2000 residents whose properties have been acquired over the last three years, and this number is expanding on a daily basis.”
↑3
Ahmad Shah refers to a passport-e sahawi, (seen here). It is a form which wakil-e guzars and property dealers give to residents [or people moving] to fill in and submit to their district police station. Only after receiving the form back will the owner or property dealer rent out the home. The form shows the logos of the Ministry of Interior, Kabul Municipality and General Department of Intelligence and is in three parts: the house owner must enter his or her name and all the details of the house address in the first part; the tenant must enter their name and the details of any family living with them; and two personal guarantors for the tenant must sign the third part.
↑4
In October 2021, the amir banned land-grabbing for a second time (for land whose ownership was unclear). The decree also said that the amir, “Based on necessity and expediency, can give [such land] to a member (of the Muslim community) as property.” The decree drew a parallel with what it said was the amir’s right to “withdraw from the public coffer [bait ul-maal]” and presumably give money to someone, again because of expediency. In March 2023, the ban on officials selling land, or transferring land to individuals or corporations, was repeated, unless there was a specific decree from the amir (for the texts of the decrees up to March 2023 and an accompanying report, (see here and here).
↑5
The opulent homes built on the seized land became known as ‘poppy palaces’ because of the alleged links of their owners with the narcotics trade. They became, as Joanna Nathan writing for the Middle East Institute (MEI) described, “monuments to the powerlessness of ordinary Afghans and a daily reminder to Kabulis of the impunity of the new administration and international inaction.” For more on this, see our 2023 report into the Emirate’s land-grabbing commission, which includes a list of those receiving plots compiled by the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC), published by MEI, with added biographical information from AAN. See also a September 2003 statement by Special Rapporteur on Adequate Housing and this Watandar Plus video report on the ongoing demolitions in Sherpur).
↑6
The distinction is underwritten by property owners having different legal documents: those whose lands or houses are part of the master plan have legal deeds (qabala-ye sharayi); those in areas which are not part of the municipality master plan have customary deeds (qabala-ye urfi).
↑7
For more on informal housing under the Republic, see this 2017 USIP report by AAN’s Fabrizio Foschini.
A Place to Call Home: What is driving up house prices in Kabul and pushing the poorest residents into homelessness?
Opium poppy cultivation fell again in 2024, the second year of the Taliban’s ban.
Poppy has been replaced by wheat, a low-value crop, boding ill for the economy, poverty and the ban’s future.
Foreign influence on Taliban drug policies is limited, but dialogue must be based on good data.
The Taliban’s opium ban, coupled with Afghan farmers’ replacement of poppy largely with low-value wheat, is likely to worsen dissatisfaction and political tensions. The Taliban’s persistence in enforcing the ban has been notable, especially in 2024. If the ban remains in place, it would demonstrate the regime’s strength but also worsen rural poverty, increase dissatisfaction among landholders and spur political instability. This will likely lead to increased humanitarian needs and more pressures for outmigration to nearby countries and beyond, both of which are of interest to the U.S. and other Western countries. Conversely, if the ban weakens in response to pressures and resistance, a revival of widespread poppy cultivation could undermine the regime’s authority. Aid alone will not offset the economic shock of the ban, nor stimulate the long-term growth needed to effectively combat the opium problem.
Making Sense of the Data
The most accurate available data, compiled by the geospatial technology firm Alcis, shows that opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan fell sharply in 2024, contrary to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s (UNODC) estimate that it increased. This clearly demonstrates that the Taliban’s opium ban has intensified, not weakened, in its second year of implementation, highlighting the importance of informing analysis and policy debates with high-quality, timely data.
As with other core Taliban ideological priorities, such as severe and worsening gender restrictions, international influence over their drugs policies is, at best, limited. However, at the very least, dialogue on the opium ban and related issues should be based on accurate and timely information. Additionally, the international community should avoid giving the Taliban false hope that large amounts of aid will be forthcoming in response to the ban or that, even if it were, such aid would solve the opium problem — let alone quickly. As shown by experience in other countries and in Afghanistan, the solution lies in rural development and robust economic growth over an extended period, during which the country and its economy can gradually reduce their dependence on illegal drug crop production.
Sharply Contrasting Trends at the National Level
The outcome of the second year of the Taliban’s opium ban is now clear. Data compiled through sophisticated satellite imagery analysis by Alcis show a further major reduction in the area of poppy cultivated in Afghanistan in 2024 — from an estimated 22,693 hectares in 2023 to 7,382 hectares, a drop of 67 percent. This follows the enormous nearly 90 percent reduction in 2023 and contrasts with UNODC’s estimate that cultivation increased by 19 percent in 2024, from 10,800 hectares in 2023 to 12,800 hectares. As a result, whereas UNODC’s figure for 2023 was far lower than that of Alcis — well under half — its 2024 estimate is 35 percent higher. These large differences have significant implications for assessing the effectiveness of the Taliban’s ban.
The author’s 2023 publication compared the methodologies for estimating the area of opium poppy cultivation used by UNODC and Alcis, firmly concluding that the latter’s approach yields more accurate data. Looking toward 2024, it stated: “relying on 11,000 hectares as the baseline would be highly misleading if UNODC’s estimate becomes more accurate next year … falsely implying a spurious large expansion of poppy cultivation.”
Alcis’ results are generated by machine learning models run against an extremely large stack of satellite images repeatedly collected across all agricultural land in Afghanistan. This approach is more accurate than UNODC’s long-standing methodology, which relies on a few satellite images covering only a fraction of the agricultural area — just 17 percent of arable land in 2023 and 18 percent in 2024. UNODC uses two approaches for different provinces: (1) sampling for provinces with a significant percentage of their agricultural land expected to be cultivated with poppy, as the accuracy of sampling improves when this percentage is higher; and (2) targeting for provinces with low levels of opium poppy cultivation, where satellite imagery collection locations are guided by field reports on where poppy is being cultivated.
With such low levels of poppy cultivation and its much smaller share of total agricultural land over the last two years, the sampling approach has become even less accurate. As a result, the vast majority of provinces should have been targeted rather than sampled. However, in 2023, 16 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces were sampled, and in 2024, 17 provinces were sampled, despite the near-certainty that cultivation would be low everywhere except in Badakhshan.
Beyond the major differences in methodology, UNODC never revised its figure for 2023, even in light of the very different estimate by Alcis and advancements in satellite imagery and analytical tools. This resulted in UNODC showing a spurious increase in poppy cultivation in 2024. Alcis, on the other hand, revised its data for poppy cultivation in 2023 and earlier years, reducing the 2023 figure from 31,000 hectares to 22,693 hectares. While this represents an improvement in data accuracy, it does not alter the trends. Moreover, the revised data are fully consistent with the methodology used to derive the 2024 estimate, ensuring the two years can be accurately compared.
Even Greater Differences at the Provincial Level
Badakhshan province, which became Afghanistan’s largest cultivator of opium poppy after the Taliban ban was enforced, provides an even more striking example of how less accurate data can be misleading and cause problems for analysis. In 2022, Alcis and UNODC’s estimates for Badakhshan — 4,913 hectares and 4,305 hectares, respectively—were reasonably close, and trends in earlier years were broadly similar. In 2023, however, they diverged markedly, with UNODC’s estimate indicating a sharp decline to 1,573 hectares (a 63 percent drop), but Alcis’ estimate showing a 38 percent increase to 6,795 hectares.
In 2024, the contrast is even sharper: Alcis figures show provincial poppy cultivation falling (from 6,795 hectares in 2023 to 3,636 hectares in 2024, i.e., a 46 percent drop). Thus, the serious opposition the Taliban faced in Badakhshan did not prevent the observed reduction in 2024. This decline primarily reflected farmers’ greater caution toward planting poppy, rather than eradication efforts, which achieved only very limited success.
UNODC’s estimates, in contrast, indicate that poppy cultivation in Badakhshan surged by 371 percent (from 1,573 hectares in 2023 to 7,408 hectares in 2024). It is highly implausible that cultivation was so low in 2023, let alone that it saw such an enormous rise in 2024. This example strikingly demonstrates the distortions that arise when earlier years’ data are not revised in light of better information. Despite the relative weakness of Talban enforcement in Badakhshan compared to other provinces, there is no indication that it became much laxer in 2024, let alone so weak as to allow a nearly fourfold increase in poppy cultivation.
Trends for other provinces also differ as between UNODC and Alcis estimates. Alcis found that in 2023, four provinces had poppy cultivation well in excess of 1,000 hectares each: Kandahar (5,685 hectares), Daykundi (2,165 hectares), Uruzgan (1,878 hectares) and Baghlan (1,474 hectares) — a total of 11,202 hectares or half the national total. In 2024, further demonstrating that the Taliban ban intensified, this substantial poppy cultivation was largely wiped out, with Kandahar cultivating only 777 hectares and the other provinces cultivating much less. However, the UNODC estimates show Daykundi and Baghlan as “poppy-free” (less than 100 hectares) in both 2023 and 2024. As a result, around 3,600 hectares of 2023 poppy cultivation in these two provinces was missed.
Inaccurate magnitudes and trends can lead to misinterpretation and misleading analysis, whether in mediareports or when researchers and analysts use UNODC data uncritically. For example, a recent paper focuses on Badakhshan and includes useful background and qualitative insights, but it simply accepts the UNODC cultivation estimates without questioning them.
What Is Happening to Land Previously Cultivated with Poppy?
Alcis’ comprehensive satellite imagery-based data can shed light on what crops are being planted on the large area of land previously devoted to poppy — over 200,000 hectares of Afghanistan’s total cultivated agricultural land area, which ranges from 1.1 to 1.5 million hectares — following the ban.
Poppy has largely been replaced by wheat, a low-value crop that does not allow poor farmers to make ends meet, which bodes ill for the ban’s sustainability. In 2023, a 194,000-hectare increase in the estimated area cultivated with wheat was slightly larger than the 188,000-hectare reduction in the opium poppy area after the Taliban ban. In effect, the land vacated by poppy was entirely replaced with wheat.
Looking at Helmand province, by far the country’s largest opium producer prior to the Taliban ban, poppy cultivation collapsed from an estimated 129,640 hectares in 2022 to a mere 740 hectares in 2023 — a precipitous drop of 128,900 hectares. Wheat cultivation increased by 81,116 hectares — equivalent to 63 percent of the poppy decline. However, the total cultivated agricultural area fell by 45,262 hectares, and these two factors together accounted for 98 percent of the decline in poppy cultivation. So, although wheat did not replace poppy one-for-one in Helmand, wheat plus additional uncultivated land was equivalent to nearly the entire reduction in poppy cultivation.
In 2024, the estimated total national agricultural cultivated area fell significantly by nearly 20 percent, but the estimated area devoted to wheat fell by a smaller percentage (15 percent), and far less than the 67 percent drop in poppy cultivation from 2023. Thus, the share of wheat in the total rose — further underlining the unsustainability of the ban.
Wheat is a low-value crop that cannot provide sufficient food or income for land-poor farmers to survive. The only advantage that wheat, an annual crop, offers to farmers is that it is easy to shift back from wheat to poppy in the future — a prospect many of them may be expecting. There is no sign of a substantial shift toward higher-value cash crops that could replace opium on a more sustainable basis, let alone of any robust growth in the broader economy, which would provide non-agricultural employment and livelihoods.
Conclusion
Beyond the poverty and deprivation it causes, the Taliban’s continuing ban on opium, and the fact that poppy is being replaced primarily by wheat rather than other, more remunerative cash crops, means that dissatisfaction and possible political tensions will likely worsen.
As shown by independent researcher David Mansfield, larger landholding farmers can feed their families by cultivating their land with wheat and other food crops, covering remaining expenses by gradually selling off their opium inventories accumulated from bumper crops in 2022 and earlier years. Indeed, they can prosper based on the capital gains from inventories sold at much higher prices due to the ban. As these inventories get depleted, however, pressures for a return to poppy cultivation will intensify. Moreover, the Taliban’s recent, stronger efforts to crack down on the processing of opium and trade in opiates may further exacerbate discontent and associated tensions among groups extending well beyond the smaller poppy farmers.
The Taliban have exhibited unprecedented persistence and staying power in pursuing the poppy ban, except to some extent in Badakhshan — but even in that province, cultivation has fallen substantially in 2024. If the ban doesn’t fray much in 2025, which will be its third year in effect, it will bode ill for Afghanistan’s already poor and suffering rural population, lead over time to increasing dissatisfaction on the part of influential landholders and others and potentially give rise to political tensions and instability.
Early signs of poppy planting suggest that the ban may start to weaken in response to these pressures. However, even a selective, de facto relaxation could lead to a snowballing revival of widespread poppy cultivation, potentially undermining the perceived authority and effectiveness of the Taliban regime. On the other hand, if the ban is maintained more or less intact for several more years, it would demonstrate the regime’s strength but harm the economy and worsen poverty. Aid alone, even in large amounts (which are very unlikely to materialize in the current situation), will not be able to offset the economic shock of the drug ban, nor stimulate sustained robust economic growth and rural development — the sine qua non for lasting success against opium.
Understanding the Implications of the Taliban’s Opium Ban in Afghanistan