Afghanistan Peace CampaignTwenty-five years after the September 11, 2001 attacks, al-Qaeda continues to operate inside Afghanistan, but global jihadism has evolved into a decentralized network spread across Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, according to a new assessment by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).
The report says Afghanistan is no longer the undisputed center of global jihadist activity, even though al-Qaeda still enjoys what it describes as a permissive operating environment under the Taliban. Instead, the group’s affiliates and offshoots have expanded across multiple conflict zones, with the Sahel region of Africa and Somalia emerging as the most active hubs of al-Qaeda-linked violence.
Afghanistan remains a permissive base for al-Qaeda
Pearl Pandya, ACLED’s Senior Analyst for South Asia, said Afghanistan remains strategically important because the Taliban returned to power in August 2021 while continuing to provide space for al-Qaeda-linked operatives.
According to the report, al-Qaeda’s role inside Afghanistan is now focused largely on providing training, logistical support and operational guidance to allied militant groups rather than directing international attacks from Afghan territory.
ACLED says Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) has shown signs of renewed activity, citing a car bombing in New Delhi in November 2025 and reported attempts to establish militant cells in Bangladesh.
The report also identifies the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan (IMP) among groups receiving support from al-Qaeda networks operating from Afghanistan.
Regional security risks extend beyond Afghanistan
ACLED says Pakistan has become one of the countries facing the greatest security threat from militants based in or linked to Afghanistan.
The report says TTP attacks during 2026 have exceeded violence levels recorded during the same period in 2025, contributing to one of Pakistan’s deadliest security crises in more than a decade.
Analysts say the Afghan Taliban’s alleged tolerance or support for anti-Pakistan militant groups contributed to prolonged border tensions and armed clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan during 2026.
The Taliban have repeatedly denied allowing militant groups to use Afghanistan territory to threaten neighboring countries.
Al-Qaeda’s strongest affiliates are now in Africa
While Afghanistan remains an operational sanctuary, ACLED says al-Qaeda’s most violent affiliates are now concentrated in Africa.
The report identifies Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in the Sahel and al-Shabaab in Somalia as the organization’s most active branches.
According to ACLED, JNIM has expanded from northern Mali into Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin, Togo and Nigeria, while al-Shabaab accounted for nearly half of all violence involving al-Qaeda affiliates recorded globally during 2026.
Analysts say these groups have become deeply embedded in local conflicts, allowing them to expand despite years of international counterterrorism operations.
Syria and Iraq show how al-Qaeda fractured
The report argues that Iraq and Syria demonstrate how al-Qaeda lost control over some of its most powerful affiliates.
It says the Islamic State emerged after breaking away from al-Qaeda’s Iraqi branch, while Syria’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) eventually severed ties with al-Qaeda to pursue its own local political and military agenda.
ACLED says these developments transformed global jihadism from a movement directed by one central leadership into competing organizations pursuing different regional objectives.
Taliban still lack international recognition
The report comes as the Taliban continue seeking broader international engagement while remaining internationally isolated.
Although the Taliban have repeatedly said they will not allow Afghanistan to become a base for attacks against other countries, the United Nations and several governments have continued to express concern about the presence of al-Qaeda and other extremist groups inside Afghanistan.
Nearly five years after returning to power, the Taliban have not been formally recognized by most countries, and international concerns over terrorism remain one of the main obstacles to Afghanistan’s normalization with the global community.