Afghanistan Peace Campaign
The United Nations estimates Afghanistan’s population will reach 48.6 million in 2026, while the Taliban-controlled statistics authority puts the figure at 37.2 million, highlighting a major gap in demographic data as the country marks World Population Day.
The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and Afghanistan’s Taliban-controlled National Statistics and Information Authority released different population estimates on Saturday, July 11, to mark World Population Day.
UNAMA said in a statement that Afghanistan’s population is projected to reach 48.6 million people in 2026, adding that accurate demographic data is essential for informed policymaking, improving healthcare services, promoting gender equality, strengthening resilience and advancing sustainable development.
Meanwhile, the Taliban-controlled National Statistics and Information Authority estimated Afghanistan’s population at 37.2 million in the current solar year 1405, a figure more than 11 million lower than the UN projection.
The authority said men make up 51 percent of Afghanistan’s population and women account for 49 percent. It estimated that around 70 percent of the population — nearly 26 million people — live in rural areas, while 26 percent, or about 9.8 million people, reside in urban areas. Nomadic communities account for the remaining 4 percent, or approximately 1.5 million people.
According to the Taliban-run statistics agency, Kabul is Afghanistan’s most populous province with an estimated 6.4 million residents, followed by Herat with around 2.4 million.
The agency said Afghanistan’s population increased from 36.4 million last year to 37.2 million this year, representing annual growth of about 2.2 percent, or approximately 800,000 additional people.
The UN has also warned that Afghanistan faces growing pressure from climate change, including drought, flooding, rising temperatures and water shortages. Around 75 percent of Afghans depend on agriculture and livestock for their livelihoods, leaving many communities vulnerable to environmental shocks.
The significant difference between the UN and Taliban population estimates reflects longstanding challenges in Afghanistan’s demographic data collection. The country has not conducted a comprehensive national census for decades due to prolonged conflict, displacement and limited statistical capacity.
Experts say reliable population data is critical for planning healthcare, education, humanitarian assistance and development programs, particularly as Afghanistan continues to face economic hardship and humanitarian challenges.