Afghanistan Under Taliban Rule Makes the World Less Safe

By Nazila Jamshidi and Annie Pforzheimer

The Diplomat

February 20, 2026

Afghanistan Under Taliban Rule Makes the World Less Safe — **The world has shifted focus away from Afghanistan, much as it did in the lead-up to September 2001, giving dangerous networks room to rebuild.**

The Taliban deny this reality. The international community is fooling itself if it assumes that this threat is contained. Avoiding a repeat of 9/11 requires tightening worldwide sanctions on the Taliban, supporting Afghan political forces advocating for non-violent change, and providing safe haven to Afghan allies with a well-founded fear of persecution, torture, or execution if they were returned.The Taliban’s claim that their government has controlled the activities of al‑Qaida, a condition of the 2020 Doha Agreement with the United States, is negated by the U.N.’s findings. The Monitoring Team reports that al‑Qaida “provides ideological guidance” to other terrorist groups and acts as “service provider and multiplier” for them. The report highlighted the operation of religious schools (madrassas) in eastern and northeastern provinces, where al‑Qaida “indoctrinates children and trains them to become fighters.”

The threat therefore is not only immediate but generational. A separate late 2024 report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), highlighted ongoing security challenges in Afghanistan and the limitations of reconstruction and counterterrorism efforts under Taliban control, underscoring concerns about safe havens for extremist groups such as al‑Qaida. Under the al‑Qaida sanctions regime, yet another U.N. report openly referred to the Taliban as “continuing to host and support the group.” Al-Qaida itself in 2024 referred to Afghanistan as a “safe haven.”

Meanwhile, while the Taliban have taken some effective actions against the Islamic State, the U.N. notes that its “Khorasan” or Afghanistan wing is “resilient and continues to pose a threat, both internally in Afghanistan and externally.”

The TTP, linked to al‑Qaida, is particularly a growing and extra-regional threat, experts warn. The Monitoring Team’s report estimates around 6,000 TTP fighters are harbored in Afghanistan. There were more than 600 TTP attacks in Pakistan in 2025 alone, mainly against military and government targets, causing dozens of deaths and many more injured.

The Pakistani government has taken military reprisals against what it claims are TTP targets within Afghanistan, leading to the deaths of at least 50 Afghan civilians, and around $1 million a day in cross-border trade has been lost to the Afghanistan economy by Pakistan’s punitive border closing. These tensions are further inflamed by India-Pakistan rivalry, potentially destabilizing the South Asia region, while attacks from groups within Afghanistan have hit Chinese business interests and cross-border targets in Tajikistan.

The Taliban’s systematic repression of human rights further compounds these risks. The exclusion of women from education, employment, and public life removes moderating social forces and consolidates ideological control at the household and community levels. Early and forced marriages, now widespread, sever girls from education while reinforcing extremist authority structures. The persecution of ethnic and religious minorities deepens grievances that transnational terrorist groups have historically exploited for recruitment. Repression and terrorism are not parallel outcomes; they are mutually reinforcing.

The world has shifted focus away from Afghanistan, much as it did in the lead-up to September 2001, giving dangerous networks room to rebuild. The Taliban are becoming an inspiration to other groups and the safe haven of choice. It is a mistake to consider following Russia’s route of recognizing the Taliban regime while these threat dynamics persist.

Worldwide sanctions are already in place, but tightening those measures is vital. The U.N. Security Council must insist on stronger sanctions, with rigorous monitoring of complaints, until concrete, verifiable counterterrorism progress is made. There are three immediate tasks for the Council: add new Taliban leaders to the pre-9/11 sanctions list; push back on free travel of known terrorist leaders such as Sirajuddin Haqqani; and place the Taliban leadership, especially the intelligence chiefs widely acknowledged as the handlers for foreign terrorists, under the separate al-Qaida sanctions regime.

Sanctions alone will not push back extremism. This takes creativity, patience, and motivated allies. It is time to expand international outreach to members of Afghanistan’s civil society and its leaders in exile, in support of a roadmap to an Afghanistan at peace with itself and committed to regional stability. This was the recommendation of the Independent Assessment presented to the Security Council in 2023, that “sustainable peace and social, cultural and economic development after 45 years of armed conflict” would require the international community to support inclusive and representative Afghan participation in a political dialogue.

Finally, to achieve these goals and learn our 9/11 lessons, those Afghans who believe in inclusivity and human rights must be protected – to the extent possible inside Afghanistan, where they are virtual hostages, and also in countries where they have taken refuge. Sending Afghans who worked with the West back into Taliban control is signing their death sentences in some cases. In other cases, it neutralizes our natural allies in the fight against extremism.

It is time for the United States to pass the “Enduring Welcome Act,” which would protect Afghan relocation and family reunification efforts, while providing transparency through regular reporting to Congress and rigorous national security vetting. It is time to keep our promises, while learning our lessons.

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