Afghanistan Peace Campaign
Nearly 19.2 million people in Afghanistan are projected to face acute food insecurity during the coming winter, as unemployment, high prices, reduced humanitarian assistance and pressure from returning migrants deepen the country’s humanitarian crisis, according to a new assessment by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).
The assessment estimates that 15.9 million people, or 32 percent of the population, are already experiencing crisis-level hunger or worse. The number is projected to rise to 19.2 million, around 38 percent of the population analysed, between November 2026 and April 2027. About five million people could face emergency levels of food insecurity requiring urgent assistance.
The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has warned that the situation could deteriorate further as winter reduces employment opportunities and limits agricultural activity. High food and transport costs, weak purchasing power and declining humanitarian funding are leaving many families struggling to afford basic necessities.
The crisis is also affecting children and women. The IPC projects that approximately 4.04 million children aged six to 59 months will require treatment for acute malnutrition in 2027. More than one million pregnant and breastfeeding women are also expected to need treatment for acute malnutrition.
Large-scale returns from Iran and Pakistan, trade disruptions and pressure on already limited jobs and services have added to the strain on vulnerable households. Many returnees have limited access to land, stable employment and reliable sources of income, increasing their risk of hunger.
The NRC has called for humanitarian assistance to be increased before winter conditions worsen. Aid agencies have also warned that declining funding is weakening their ability to provide food assistance and nutrition services to families most at risk.