Afghanistan Peace Campaign
A U.S.-backed report warns that reduced rainfall, rising heat, and poor crop conditions are pushing Afghanistan into severe food crisis.
A recent report from a U.S.-based agency warns that Afghanistan is on the brink of a widespread food security crisis due to unprecedented declines in rainfall, rising temperatures, and severe agricultural conditions. More than half of the country’s population now requires humanitarian aid.
The findings from the “Famine Early Warning Network,” supported by U.S. government funding and in collaboration with organizations such as the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, indicate that Afghanistan will experience 40% lower-than-average rainfall between October 2024 and April 2025. This marks a significant departure from the 40-year historical averages.
The report highlights that the most severe rainfall declines have been in the northern and western provinces, where agricultural life and food supply chains are now critically threatened. In some areas, the decrease in rainfall has surpassed 50%. The lack of rain has delayed planting, weakened germination, and intensified drought pressures in rain-fed land, putting winter wheat under significant stress during key growth phases like flowering and grain filling.
Additionally, snow reserves are at their lowest levels, with snow water equivalent indices in the country’s watersheds being 40-60% below average. This decrease is especially concerning for areas dependent on snowmelt, such as the central and northeastern provinces.
Unusually high temperatures have exacerbated the situation. In April, temperatures across Afghanistan were 2 to 4 degrees Celsius above normal. This heat has increased evaporation rates and reduced soil moisture, with forecasts for May and June predicting a continuation of this trend.
Satellite images show a dramatic decline in vegetation quality in provinces like Badghis, Ghor, and Faryab, directly affecting pastures and livestock nutrition. This environmental stress is compounded by the rising cost of essential food items. While the prices of flour and rice remain relatively stable, the cost of oil, salt, and animal feed has increased by 18%, 22%, and 12%, respectively.
The report also notes that 23.7 million people—over half the population—are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. Among them, approximately 3.4 million children under five years old are suffering from acute malnutrition.
Afghanistan, a nation reliant on agriculture and livestock, has long been vulnerable to climate change. Recent decades have witnessed recurring droughts, decreasing water reserves, and rising annual temperatures. The current crisis, marked by reduced snow reserves, failing vegetation, and changing rainfall patterns, underscores the intensifying impact of climate change on the country.
Climate analysts have warned that the second half of 2025 could see the return of the La Niña phase, which has previously been linked to increased droughts in South and Central Asia. This could push the current crisis to even more alarming levels, underscoring the need for international interventions and proactive policy measures.